The grid below has the players listed based on my 2011 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP shown for where a player would fall in either a 12 or 15 team mixed league. The rounds for a 12 team league may vary slightly as closers may slide a little bit later with fewer teams in the league, but it will still give you a good ballpark range for what round you should be looking to take that certain player that you have an eye on.

Looking at the list of the top 20 closers, there are three guys that stand out to me as value plays based on their current fantasy baseball ADP but they each come with some caveats. Jonathan Broxton going as the 15 to 17th best closer after being a top five closer a few years ago could provide some value for owners. New manager Don Mattingly is saying all of the right things in regards to Broxton being back as closer but there Dodgers have several options looming in the background which means a change would be easy to make if Broxton struggles. With Mattingly as a new manager, we also don’t know what his philosophy is in regards to player moves so if Broxton blows two saves in a week, how long will he stick with him? Does he let him ride out any type of struggles or does he pull the plug quick knowing he has other capable options?

Matt Thornton could be going higher for the White Sox but the presence of youngster Chris Sale in the bullpen combined with Thornton never having been a full-time closer before makes his value slide a little in current drafts. Since both pitchers are left-handed, there is no worry about a guy getting situational saves. It is either going to be one guy or the other.

Coming off of Tommy John surgery, Joe Nathan is going later in fantasy baseball mock drafts and with Matt Capps in a fallback role, the Twins have some options. We will need to watch Nathan in spring to see if he performs as well and if he is able to close in back-to-back games. If the Twins keep him from throwing two consecutive days for the first month or two of the season, that could be five to eight saves he misses out on.

The grid below has the players listed based on my 2011 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP shown for where a player would fall in either a 12 or 15 team mixed league. The rounds for a 12 team league may vary slightly as starting pitchers may slide a little bit later with fewer teams in the league, but it will still give you a good ballpark range for what round you should be looking to take that certain player that you have an eye on.

Looking at the list of the top 40 pitchers and then at my next group of 20 or so, it seems like there is some good depth at pitching this season. Last year we saw starting pitching going very high in fantasy baseball mixed drafts and this year I would it expect to be no different. Look at how tightly bunched so many of the pitchers are in the top 20 or so. If you are playing in say a 15 team league snake draft and are picking toward one of the ends, if there is a mini pitcher run that starts, chances are most owners are going to feel the need to grab one so they don’t miss out on one of the top starters. So what starts as a mini run then turns into several rounds of pitchers going for a good portion of the picks.

Some people may feel like they can let pitchers slide and grab some pitchers in the middle rounds but that becomes a little bit more difficult with each passing year. For one, with pitchers going a bit earlier than normal, it pushes that middle tier up a round or two, so guys that may be showing an ADP of rounds 9 -13 end up going one or two rounds earlier which can squeeze you out on those pitchers depending where in the draft you are picking.

While it is hard to focus on wins as a category because there is so much variance, strikeouts are one category that some fantasy baseball owners will focus on. If you are playing in the NFBC or some other high stakes fantasy baseball league, you should have a good idea of what the target goal is for each category. So let’s say your goal for strikeouts is 1,300 strikeouts. That means if you have nine pitchers on your staff, you need three guys with 200 strikeouts, three guys with 150 strikeouts, then three relief pitchers with 60 strikeouts leaves you based on this team, 70 strikeouts short of your goal. This means you are likely to rotate two start pitchers into the seventh spot in your rotation with closers, so half the year you go with three closers and six starters and then the other half of the year you end up with seven starters and two closers.

Of course this assumes that your pitchers are healthy all season and do not miss any starts. Last year year there were 45 pitchers that threw 200 innings or more, so in a 15 team league, that equates to three starters per team roughly if each team took a pitcher consecutive picks. In terms of strikeouts there were only 15 pitchers that had 200 or more strikeouts, so one per team. For pitchers that struck out 175 to 199 hitters, there were 16 pitchers, so again, one per team.

So if we go back to look at our goals for strikeouts, and then at how many strikeout pitchers there really are in the league, you can quickly see that there are teams that are going to miss their goals because there is not enough pitching to go around as one might think. Now, I realize strikeouts are just one category and we know that wins are fickle from year to year, so when a team is short on strikeouts and if you start falling behind on wins, then teams need to start inserting two start pitchers into their lineup more and more to catch up.

You might gain some strikeouts and wins, put you are then putting your ERA and WHIP at risk because the two start pitchers you are using are at the lower end of the scale. What you will often find is that a pitcher will have one okay start and one start where they get blown up leaving you with a mixed bag for the week that gets you no advantage in the categories you are trying to make up ground in.

Having two start pitchers that you need to rotate into your lineup also affects the makeup of your reserve / bench for your team, so you end up carrying an extra pitcher or two which gives you less room for injured players, prospects or hitters. So in a nutshell, waiting on pitchers impacts your team in many different ways. It can still be done, but just know it is harder than ever to accomplish and you may find yourself facing an uphill battle most of the season in may categories.

The grid below has the players listed based on my 2011 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP shown for where a player would fall in either a 12 or 15 team mixed league. The rounds for a 12 team league may vary slightly as outfielders may slide a little bit later with fewer teams in the league, but it will still give you a good ballpark range for what round you should be looking to take that certain player that you have an eye on.

There are a lot of clusters of outfielders that are ranked somewhat similarly so it will be up to you to pick the right one for your team in terms of impact in the standard five fantasy baseball categories. Glancing at the list, one of the names that jumps out from the top is Jacoby Ellsbury in Boston. A year ago he was an end of first round second round pick in 15 team mixed formats and now he is going at the start of round five. A lot of his value will depend on where he hits in the lineup. Does he get slotted first where he has hit 82% of the time in his career or does he get bumped to ninth with the addition of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez?

In the early in 20′s at the outfield spot, you will notice quite a few outfielders that had comeback seasons or slight breakout seasons such as Vernon Wells, Delmon Young, Chris Young and Corey Hart. Michael Stanton is getting a lot of love from fantasy baseball owners as he falls into that group as well as a second year player.

Heading into the late 30′s, there are going to be several tough decisions to make on players coming off of injuries or down seasons in Manny Ramirez, Jason Bay and Grady Sizemore.

The grid below has the players listed based on my 2011 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP shown for where a player would fall in either a 12 or 15 team mixed league. The rounds for a 12 team league may vary slightly as third basemen may slide a little bit later with fewer teams in the league, but it will still give you a good ballpark range for what round you should be looking to take that certain player that you have an eye on.

Again, you will note one player with a big jump up in the rankings after having a better than expected year last year in Adrian Beltre. I guess people seem to forget that all of his big seasons have come in contract years and drafting him early in the fourth round in a 15 team mixed fantasy baseball league is a little too high with a correction in stats likely coming.

Mark Reynolds and Pablo Sandoval, two guys that were picks in the top three rounds last season are now going in the 8th and 9th round respectively. In you are one that believes in stat corrections occurring back to the median, then this represents potential for good value. If you draft Reynolds, just make sure that you surround him with high average hitters so you don’t end up tanking that category. Reports are that Sandoval is has lost weight and will be in better shape this season which if true will likely bump his value up a round or two once the real fantasy baseball drafts roll around.

Edwin Encarnacion could be a good source for cheap power late in the draft as one of the few guys after round 9 that has the ability to hit 20+ home runs in a season. The third base position will also get a boost after several weeks when Kevin Youkilis gains eligibility so he is someone to look at as well.

The grid below has the players listed based on my 2011 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP shown for where a player would fall in either a 12 or 15 team mixed league. The rounds for a 12 team league may vary slightly as shortstops may slide a little bit later with fewer teams in the league, but it will still give you a good ballpark range for what round you should be looking to take that certain player that you have an eye on.

It is interesting to look at the fantasy baseball ADP for this position as there are three kind of distinct fantasy baseball tiers with the top eight players going in the first eight round, then another four players going in rounds 10-12 and then the rest of the players going in the latter stages of the draft.

Those people drafting at the end of round three are going to have to make a tough call as to whether they want Derek Jeter at shortstop or Jimmy Rollins. Though Jeter’s dropped off last year, the one thing you can say about him is that you know he is going to play in almost every game. Rollins only played in 88 games last year and is headed toward free agency so one would hope he comes into camp in great shape this year so that is news to be watching for when players report.

I don’t have Alex Gonzalez in my top 20 shortstops, but based on ADP it looks like he is going as the 11th shortstop off the board. I am hoping that is some type of data discrepancy as I can’t believe he would be going that high. Again, don’t pay for last year’s numbers as regression always tends to counter balance ups and downs from season to season. Also remember that most of his damage came in Toronto where it seemed like everyone was swinging for the fences last season.

The grid below has the players listed based on my 2011 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP shown for where a player would fall in either a 12 or 15 team mixed league. The rounds for a 12 team league may vary slightly as second basemen may slide a little bit later with fewer teams in the league, but it will still give you a good ballpark range for what round you should be looking to take that certain player that you have an eye on.

Again, it is interesting to note how much fantasy baseball owners take into account the performance just from the previous season and not a several year approach in determining a player’s fantasy value. For example, Brian Roberts was injured last season and Rickie Weeks was healthy for the first time for a full season and now because of that they have essentially swapped spots with their ADP from a year ago.

I think the people that wait later in the draft for Zobrist, Hill, Roberts, Beckham are going to see some good value as compared to those owners grabbing Weeks, Prado or Kelly Johnson several rounds earlier.

The grid below has the players listed based on my 2011 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP shown for where a player would fall in either a 12 or 15 team mixed league. The rounds for a 12 team league may vary slightly as first basemen may slide a little bit later with fewer teams in the league, but it will still give you a good ballpark range for what round you should be looking to take that certain player that you have an eye on.

I still find it hard to fathom Paul Konerko going in the 5th round in 15 team leagues. Not sure why everybody is so intent on paying for last year’s performance when 2011 is a whole new season. Last year he was going in rounds 11-15 in fantasy baseball drafts and now after hitting 39 home runs (the most he has hit since 2005) and turning 36 in March, he is suddenly a 40 home run hitter? That is not the way you win fantasy baseball leagues by paying for performance from the previous season.

Let’s compare two players from 2009-10 and see if you can guess which player is which

Player A (2009) 78 runs 21 HR 93 RBI .301 average
Player B (2010) 72 runs 19 HR 85 RBI .273 average

Really not too much difference between the two players outside of batting average, yet player A has an ADP that is six rounds higher. Player A is of course Billy Butler using his 2009 season which was better than his 2010 year and player B is Gaby Sanchez. I am not saying that Sanchez has to be drafted where Butler is, but rather Butler is going a little bit higher than he maybe should be with similar players available later in the draft.

Butler hit 51 double in 2009 and the thought was some of those double would turn into more home runs in 2010 and he ended up hitting six fewer bombs, while hitting 45 doubles. Even if you were to give the most optimistic of projections in order to justify where he is being drafted, you would have him around 25 home runs, driving in 95+ runs and hitting .310 or so.

The grid below has the players listed based on my 2011 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP shown for where a player would fall in either a 12 or 15 team mixed league. The rounds for a 12 team league may vary slightly as catchers may slide a little bit later with fewer teams in the league, but it will still give you a good ballpark range for what round you should be looking to take that certain player that you have an eye on.

I think the one thing that stands out from looking at the list is the fact that Carlos Santana is going exactly four rounds after Buster Posey is. Had Santana not got hurt in 2010 and had the same amount of at bats as Posey did, I think they would be drafted much closer to each other which means I think Santana goes several rounds higher once the real drafts roll around. An owner is not going to want to wait until the 7th round in a 15 team draft hoping he slides that far. If they do, they are going to miss out on him.

This data is from nine fantasy baseball drafts and shows the first six rounds. With 15 picks per round, there are a total of 90 players selected during that time. Of the total drafts, there were 113 different players selected so there are a few players at the fringe that some owners are undecided on. Here is a look at the current first round for 2011 fantasy baseball adp.

1. Albert Pujols – no surprise, he was first in all nine drafts.
2. Miguel Cabrera – just edges out Hanley, going second six of nine times.
3. Hanley Ramirez – went as low as 6th in one draft.
4. Troy Tulowitzki – lots of people seem to be looking at the numbers he put up in the last month.
5. Carlos Gonzalez – as high as three, as low as nine.
6. Carl Crawford – high of four, low of 11.
7. Joey Votto – makes him the 3rd first basemen in the first round.
8. Ryan Braun – went as high as six in one draft.
9. Evan Longoria – has over taken A-Rod as the top 3B.
10. Robinson Cano – a little more power and he jumps up two to three rounds.
11. Adrian Gonzalez – fantasy baseball owners looking for big things from him now in Boston.
12. Alex Rodriguez – went as high as 10, as low as 16.
13. David Wright – went higher than A-Rod in two drafts.
14. Roy Halladay – as high as 8 and as low as 20.
15. Josh Hamilton – as high as 11, as low as 19.

As many people that say the draft is won in the later rounds, it is also won in the first round as well. If you look at the final ADP (average draft position) for the last few years and then check their final fantasy baseball rankings, you will see that half of the times the players picked in the first round don’t end up their in terms of value. While I would not call these players busts because they still put up good stats, there ends up being better players that should have been selected.

If I had to pick five players from the list that will not be in the to p15 at the end of the season, I would probably say:

1. Robinson Cano – doesn’t steal bases and if he hits 17 home runs and .300 then he is not in the first round.
2. Troy Tulowitzki – too streaky.
3. Josh Hamilton – injury prone
4. Carlos Gonzalez – could go 25-20 and not finish in the first round for value.
5. Alex Rodriguez – age, drop in batting average and lack of steals

Again, these are not players to avoid or not take in the first round, but if I had to choose who will not be a first round pick in terms of value by the end of the year, those are my choices.

Other interesting data to be gleaned from the ADP so far. Young players are high up on the board this year. Everybody is looking for that guy that is going to break out and be this year’s Carlos Gonzalez. At some point however, players are getting drafted too high that they have to have a incredible year in order to justify their spot. Here is a look at where some of the young guns are going.

Buster Posey (35) – ahead of Brian McCann

Jason Heyward (41) – some injury risk with him a little too high at this point

Mike Stanton (65) – early in the 5th round, he better hit a ton of home runs for people to be picking him here.

Carlos Santana (80) – early in 6th round

It looks like middle infielders have taken a step back from 2010 as the good majority of them look to be going lower in 2011. Ian Kinsler (33), Jimmy Rollins (40), Brandon Phillips (42), Derek Jeter (67).

Other players of note:

Jose Bautista (51) – high of 34, low of 60

Pedro Alvarez – drafted in four of nine drafts, went: 62, 89, 89, 90

Mark Reynolds – drafted in six of nine drafts, high of 55

If you are looking for 2011 fantasy baseball projections, be sure to grab your copy of the 2011 FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.

One of the first things that you will notice when looking at any type of fantasy baseball ADP list is how often players move up or down in value from year-to-year. One year a player is injured, one year he is healthy and all of a sudden there is a four to five round change in value. Remember that you don’t want to be paying for 2010 stats when you are drafting in 2011. Rather you want to try to find guys that are going to give you good value based on where they are drafted.

While it is still early in the process for fantasy baseball drafts, here is a look at some of the things that stand out to me based on 11 drafts in the data.

Starting Pitchers: Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum have flip-flopped places atop the draft order from a year ago with Halladay going in the first round and Lincecum going in the early second.

Keep in mind again that drafting a player where he needs to hit the upper level of a player projection is a losing battle. One of the keys to winning a fantasy baseball league is being able to find good value in every round or at least players with the potential for upside that can earn you more than where you get them.

Looking at the other top pitchers in fantasy baseball, it is no surprise to see players that had big or breakout years jump to the top of the pack. Cliff Lee is going as the number 4 pitcher and 37 overall. Ubaldo Jimenez (5, 39), David Price (10, 46), Trevor Cahill (21, 81) have all shot up several rounds from last year with Cahill being the biggest mover.

Some of the surprises to me in the to p30 pitchers include besides Cahill (lack of strikeouts, weak offense, AL pitcher), include John Lackey (28, 101 – batting average against up 4 straight years), Jair Jurrjens (30, 108 – injury concerns)

Relief Pitchers: very surprised to see Jonathan Papelbon as the third closer with the year he had in 2010 and two potential guys to take the job from him if he blows a couple of saves in a row. Fantasy Baseball owners seem to like Matt Thornton as closer for the Chicago White Sox as he comes in at #18, vs. Chris Sale at #46.