ADP | Fantasy Baseball Tools

2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Rising / Falling

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 23rd, 2010

With spring training here and new information coming out every day on players, let’s take a look at the 2010 fantasy baseball average draft position (ADP) to see which players are moving up or down on the draft board.

Rising:

Roy Halladay (27th overall) – ADP was 34 two weeks ago and I have seen him going as high as the late teens in recent drafts. With pitching going early this season, Halladay is getting bumped up closer to Tim Lincecum. If there is any pitcher that is going to get 20 or more wins this season, Halladay would be the favorite at this point.

Justin Morneau (39) – ADP is up five spots but he has been going higher as well in recent mock drafts. Concerns about his back and a potential for less power have seem to have been erased from fantasy owners minds.

Josh Johnson (72) – ADP is up 10 spots from two weeks ago. Looks like owners at the end of the fifth round are afraid he will not make it back on the turn in snake drafts and are pulling the trigger a little bit sooner to ensure they get him.

Clayton Kershaw (98) – ADP up 15 spots. Being pulled higher by the early drafting of the Tier 1 pitchers. Arguably the last solid number one starter for your fantasy baseball team depending how much faith you have in Cole Hamels or Ubaldo Jimenez going after him.

Matt Wieters (99) – ADP up 9 spots and he is coming close to falling into the overrated category if he goes any higher. I don’t see his upside that much greater than Miguel Montero or Jorge Posada whom you can get four rounds later in the draft.

Huston Street (143) – ADP up 18 spots as he is last closer going off the board before the remaining relief pitchers who all have question marks tied to them.

Brett Anderson (166) – ADP up 25 spots as people are buying into the hype being spouted by magazines and other websites calling him the breakout pitcher of 2010. No longer has the potential to value for you based on where he is currently going in drafts.

James Loney (184) ADP up 20 spots that has pushed him up the first base rankings ahead of Adam LaRoche, Todd Helton and Paul Konerko. Combination of batting average plus I think people are hoping for an increase in power which I don’t see happening.

Falling:

Alfonso Soriano (77) – ADP down five spots and there is a chance he goes later than this. There is lots of good talent still on the board at the start of the sixth round. His recent comments about his knee that he had surgery on being only 80-85% healthy has to cause some concern if you are planning to draft him.

Michael Bourn (79) – ADP is down 12 spots from two weeks ago. Nice to see that people are starting to realize his true value and are pushing him back to a more reasonable position in that draft, although the 79th spot is still much too high.

Vladimir Guerrero (138) – ADP down 16 spots. Still might have another good season in him, but it is hard to tie up your utility spot this early in the draft since he does not qualify at any other position.

Chris Davis (158) – ADP down 13 spots as people are still trying to decide which version of him are they going to get. It looks like right now owners are not buying into his performance after he came back from Triple-A at the end of the 2009 season.

Jack Cust (232) – ADP down 77 spots thanks to crowded Oakland A’s roster that will limit Cust’s at bats in 2010. Low batting average is also tough to take this late in the draft unless you planned on taking him and surrounded him with high average hitters.

2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Closers

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 19th, 2010

This is the eighth article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for closers. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

Undervalued:

Chad Qualls looks undervalued to me as he is going in the last tier of closers. The dislocated kneecap that ended his season last August is supposed to be fully healed by spring training. He has always had good numbers with a career ERA of 3.32 and a 1.20 WHIP so I don’t see him imploding like some other closers will this season. If he had finished out the season, he would have been around 30 saves which would have tied him for 16th.

Overvalued:

It is not too often that 36-year-old relief pitchers suddenly morph into closers like Ryan Franklin did last season. His overall numbers look solid on the surface, but looking closer at the stats he had some woeful splits. His minuscule .79 ERA and .79 WHIP the first half turned into a 3.33 ERA and 1.70 after the All-Star break. Of more concern was his walk to strikeout ratio which was 1:1 during that time frame.

Brian Fuentes racked up 48 saves last season, but struggled in the second half with his control. ERA after the All-Star break was 4.81 with a 1.68 WHIP and he also recorded more walks that strikeouts. Batting average against jumped by 45 points and as an extreme fly ball pitcher, that makes him more susceptible to home runs in 2010 which would negatively impact his ERA.

			12 Teams		15 Teams
Rank	Name	ADP	Round	Pick	Round	Pick
1	Jonathan Broxton	70	6	10	5	10
2	Joe Nathan	76	7	4	6	1
3	Jonathan Papelbon	71	6	11	5	11
4	Mariano Rivera	73	7	1	5	13
5	Joakim Soria	102	9	6	7	12
6	Francisco Rodriguez	87	8	3	6	12
7	Andrew Bailey	127	11	7	9	7
8	Heath Bell	103	9	7	7	13
9	Jose Valverde	137	12	5	10	2
10	Huston Street	149	13	5	10	14
11	Brian Wilson	143	12	11	10	8
12	Francisco Cordero	108	9	12	8	3
13	Billy Wagner	150	13	6	10	15
14	Rafael Soriano	157	14	1	11	7
15	Brian Fuentes	117	10	9	8	12
16	Trevor Hoffman	170	15	2	12	5
17	Frank Francisco	204	17	12	14	9
18	Mike Gonzalez	206	18	2	14	11
19	Chad Qualls	228	19	12	16	3
20	David Aardsma	156	13	12	11	6
21	Carlos Marmol	143	12	11	10	8
22	Bobby Jenks	163	14	7	11	13
23	Ryan Franklin	153	13	9	11	3
24	Kerry Wood	227	19	11	16	2
25	Brad Lidge	229	20	1	16	4
26	Matt Capps	234	20	6	16	9
27	Leo Nunez	242	21	2	17	2
28	Jason Frasor	264	22	12	18	9
29	Octavio Dotel	271	23	7	19	1
30	Brandon Lyon	261	22	9	18	6

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
Expanded player rankings for all positions
Ages for all players as of opening day
Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Starting Pitchers

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 18th, 2010

This is the seventh article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for starting pitchers. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

Undervalued:

I have Ryan Dempster 11 spots higher on my starting pitcher list than his current ADP ranking. Numbers from 2008 and 2009 were pretty close to the same except for a drop in wins and some regression to his ERA that was to be expected. Has a much better percent chance of striking out 175+, having an ERA under 3.7 and a WHIP under 1.3 than quite a few people that are currently being drafted ahead of him.

Gavin Floyd was a top prospect for the Philadelphia Phillies and one of the top 50 prospects in the minor leagues when he was coming up through the farm system. It took him a little over 170 innings at the major league level before finally settling into a groove so the struggles he encountered still have some people not giving him enough credit. Bumped up his strikeout rate 1.3 per nine last season and decreased his home run rate. ERA went up slightly only because of the ineffectiveness of the bullpen behind him.

Hiroki Kuroda is ranked 50th on my list and is 66th according to his current average draft position. Injuries kept his innings down in 2009 which might partially explain his current standing. But in the innings he did pitch, he improved his strikeout per nine ratio by a batter.

Overvalued:

Starting pitchers in general. Last year in the NFBC, there were only three pitchers drafted in the first 50 picks on average. Those were Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana and CC Sabathia. This season there are eight pitchers with a current fantasy baseball ADP in the top 50.

If you look at the top 15 pitchers based on where they were drafted in the NFBC last season, you could argue that half of them were busts or went too high, either based on injury or performance. Those would include Santana, Jake Peavy, Cole Hamels, Francisco Liriano, Roy Oswalt and John Lackey. Even though they did not have terrible seasons, you could add Chad Billingsley and James Shields to that list as well as their actual value turned out to be much lower than where they were drafted.

Cliff Lee seems to scream overvalued to me based on where he is going in fantasy baseball mock drafts. Moves back to the American League where his control was not as sharp as it was in the NL. Will see a drop in his strikeout rate and if his strand rate which was higher than average the last two seasons regresses, his ERA is going to jump as well. Now, I am not saying to stay away from him, just that there several better options than him when you are on the clock to make your draft choice.

As I wrote about Javier Vazquez in the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for pitchers, I just don’t see how he is being drafted as high as he is. The move back to the American League (drop in strikeouts, higher ERA and WHIP) coupled with the move to the Eastern division and playing in New York (4.91 ERA and 1.29 WHIP when last with Yankees) means there is some regression coming to his 2009 numbers. Remember that you should be drafting players based on what they will do in 2010 and not what they did last season. I still see way too many people doing that. There are variables every year that impact performance and you need to be able to take these into account when the information is available to you.

A.J. Burnett I have ranked as the 37th pitcher compared to his ADP that places him at 29. An ERA over 4, plus a WHIP that hit 1.40 last season combined with a past injury history makes me leery of grabbing him too high in a mixed league draft. If you wait to draft starting pitchers and he is one of the top two pitchers on your team, you are going to need to surround with him low ratio pitchers so you don’t feel the full impact of his lack of control.

			12 Teams		15 Teams
Rank	Name	ADP	Round	Pick	Round	Pick
1	Tim Lincecum	13	2	1	1	13
2	Roy Halladay	31	3	7	3	1
3	Dan Haren	41	4	5	3	11
4	Zack Greinke	31	3	7	3	1
5	Felix Hernandez	32	3	8	3	2
6	CC Sabathia	29	3	5	2	14
7	Justin Verlander	47	4	11	4	2
8	Johan Santana	46	4	10	4	1
9	Adam Wainwright	61	6	1	5	1
10	Josh Johnson	80	7	8	6	5
11	Jon Lester	62	6	2	5	2
12	Tommy Hanson	87	8	3	6	12
13	Chris Carpenter	81	7	9	6	6
14	Cliff Lee	56	5	8	4	11
15	Josh Beckett	86	8	2	6	11
16	Yovani Gallardo	98	9	2	7	8
17	Matt Cain	95	8	11	7	5
18	Cole Hamels	105	9	9	7	15
19	Jake Peavy	86	8	2	6	11
20	Ubaldo Jimenez	106	9	10	8	1
21	Clayton Kershaw	105	9	9	7	15
22	Javier Vazquez	63	6	3	5	3
23	Ricky Nolasco	111	10	3	8	6
24	Chad Billingsley	126	11	6	9	6
25	Wandy Rodriguez	122	11	2	9	2
26	Brandon Webb	142	12	10	10	7
27	Jair Jurrjens	140	12	8	10	5
28	Ryan Dempster	169	15	1	12	4
29	Brett Anderson	175	15	7	12	10
30	James Shields	133	12	1	9	13
31	Jered Weaver	139	12	7	10	4
32	John Lackey	128	11	8	9	8
33	Matt Garza	129	11	9	9	9
34	Scott Baker	158	14	2	11	8
35	Gavin Floyd	194	17	2	13	14
36	Max Scherzer	150	13	6	10	15
37	A.J. Burnett	132	11	12	9	12
38	Ted Lilly	156	13	12	11	6
39	Roy Oswalt	158	14	2	11	8
40	John Danks	168	14	12	12	3
41	David Price	185	16	5	13	5
42	Carlos Zambrano	171	15	3	12	6
43	Tim Hudson	219	19	3	15	9
44	Rich Harden	226	19	10	16	1
45	Clay Buchholz	211	18	7	15	1
46	Kevin Slowey	225	19	9	15	15
47	Scott Kazmir	185	16	5	13	5
48	Jonathan Sanchez	240	20	12	16	15
49	J.A. Happ	254	22	2	17	14
50	Hiroki Kuroda	261	22	9	18	6
51	Randy Wolf	193	17	1	13	13
52	Francisco Liriano	247	21	7	17	7
53	Johnny Cueto	239	20	11	16	14
54	Rick Porcello	222	19	6	15	12
55	Jorge de la Rosa	202	17	10	14	7
56	Daisuke Matsuzaka	203	17	11	14	8
57	Jeff Niemann	230	20	2	16	5
58	Ervin Santana	243	21	3	17	3
59	Mark Buehrle	248	21	8	17	8
60	Joe Blanton	283	24	7	19	13

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
Expanded player rankings for all positions
Ages for all players as of opening day
Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the 2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP rankings will be closers.

2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Outfield

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 17th, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the sixth article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for players in the outfield. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

Undervalued:

Juan Pierre is currently being selected after the majority of base stealers like Michael Bourn, Nyjer Morgan, Julio Borbon and Rajai Davis which is baffling to me. He has a proven track record in the major leagues and out of all the players on the list has the best chance of hitting .300, scoring 100 runs and stealing 50 bases. Each of the players going before him have questions that he does not carry. The only downside to him the last two years was his lack of playing time which will not be an issue in Chicago this year.

I like Nolan Reimold this season based on his current average draft position. His limited at bats upon arriving in the major leagues his suppressing his value this year it seems. Hit .299 after the All-Star break in 187 at bats with 6 home runs, 22 RBI and 6 stolen bases. If you pro-rate that to 540 at bats, you are looking at a line of roughly 78 runs scored, 18 home runs, 66 RBI and 18 steals. I expect the RBI to be a little more than that and steals less, but he should still crack double digits.

Cody Ross, not a sexy pick, but is good value based on current ADP with the ability to get you 20-25 home runs late in the draft with 80-90 RBI.

Overvalued:

One dimensional speed demons. I wrote about this back in the article on 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for outfielders. It is not a good idea to take an outfielder as high as Michael Bourn that has value tied up mainly in one category. If your team goal is 180 stolen bases and you have him projected for 60, that accounts for 33% of your teams total. Any type of pulled hamstring or injured ankle and then your team is scrambling for stolen bases during the year. There is also a lot of fluctuation in stolen bases from year to year so 60 stolen bases for him last season might only be 50 in 2010.

I also mentioned when discussing Bourn that taking him that high weakens you are another position that has less depth than in the outfield. I would much rather have the choice to pick between an outfielder at the end of the draft where the talent pool is much deeper that having to take a scrub middle infielder. Then you are taking hit in multiple categories like home runs and RBI by rostering Bourn plus a scrub infielder late, than getting an infielder where Bourn is being drafted and then grabbing an outfielder to close out the draft.

You are much better off getting stolen bases in the first four rounds of the draft spread out between four players rather than have the risk of your speed tied to the legs of one individual.

Andrew McCutchen is an exciting young player but much like Joey Votto at first base, the expectations for 2010 are pushing him very high in mock drafts lately. Started out as a 9th round pick back in December and has steadily been moving up the ladder ever since. Current ADP is toward end of 6th round in a 15 team mixed draft and I would not be surprised to see him going at the end of the 4th round by the time the season starts.

You have to remember though just like in an auction format, your goal when drafting is to get the best value out of each pick. The higher in the draft he goes, the higher his stat line you are forecasting becomes.

			12 Teams		15 Teams
Rank	Name	ADP	Round	Pick	Round	Pick
1	Ryan Braun	5	1	5	1	5
2	Matt Kemp	8	1	8	1	8
3	Matt Holliday	22	2	10	2	7
4	Jacoby Ellsbury	19	2	7	2	4
5	Carl Crawford	15	2	3	1	15
6	Jason Bay	26	3	2	2	11
7	Justin Upton	28	3	4	2	13
8	Grady Sizemore	26	3	2	2	11
9	Jayson Werth	35	3	11	3	5
10	Nick Markakis	50	5	2	4	5
11	Adam Lind	44	4	8	3	14
12	Nelson Cruz	65	6	5	5	5
13	Curtis Granderson	52	5	4	4	7
14	Andre Ethier	68	6	8	5	8
15	Manny Ramirez	64	6	4	5	4
16	Adam Dunn	55	5	7	4	10
17	B.J. Upton	59	5	11	4	14
18	Carlos Lee	70	6	10	5	10
19	Shin-Soo Choo	69	6	9	5	9
20	Bobby Abreu	76	7	4	6	1
21	Alfonso Soriano	75	7	3	5	15
22	Shane Victorino	70	6	10	5	10
23	Josh Hamilton	54	5	6	4	9
24	Torii Hunter	93	8	9	7	3
25	Hunter Pence	86	8	2	6	11
26	Ichiro Suzuki	41	4	5	3	11
27	Andrew McCutchen	87	8	3	6	12
28	Nate McLouth	88	8	4	6	13
29	Denard Span	122	11	2	9	2
30	Jay Bruce	118	10	10	8	13
31	Alex Rios	107	9	11	8	2
32	Raul Ibanez	95	8	11	7	5
33	Carlos Quentin	103	9	7	7	13
34	Johnny Damon	118	10	10	8	13
35	Jason Kubel	115	10	7	8	10
36	Adam Jones	88	8	4	6	13
37	Carlos Gonzalez	121	11	1	9	1
38	Nolan Reimold	201	17	9	14	6
39	Brad Hawpe	114	10	6	8	9
40	Carlos Beltran	89	8	5	6	14
41	Garrett Jones	152	13	8	11	2
42	Michael Cuddyer	116	10	8	8	11
43	Ryan Ludwick	192	16	12	13	12
44	Juan Pierre	205	18	1	14	10
45	Chris Coghlan	212	18	8	15	2
46	Vernon Wells	185	16	5	13	5
47	Jermaine Dye	176	15	8	12	11
48	Corey Hart	178	15	10	12	13
49	Colby Rasmus	195	17	3	13	15
50	Nick Swisher	236	20	8	16	11
51	Cody Ross	264	22	12	18	9
52	Michael Bourn	75	7	3	5	15
53	Nyjer Morgan	129	11	9	9	9
54	Rajai Davis	165	14	9	11	15
55	Julio Borbon	187	16	7	13	7
56	Juan Rivera	179	15	11	12	14
57	Josh Willingham	222	19	6	15	12
58	Franklin Gutierrez	241	21	1	17	1
59	Mike Cameron	227	19	11	16	2
60	Travis Snider	224	19	8	15	14

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
Expanded player rankings for all positions
Ages for all players as of opening day
Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the 2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP rankings will be starting pitchers.

2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Third Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 16th, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the fifth article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for players at third base. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

Undervalued:

Kevin Kouzmanoff at pick 271 0verall looks like great value now that he is away from Petco Park. He hit only .200 at home vs. 287 on the road in 2009. He should also see a boost in runs scored now playing in the American League as well.

If I am picking at the end of the 4th round of a 15 team mixed league, I would be ecstatic if Aramis Ramirez was still on the draft board. It was just a year ago that he was a pick at the end of the second or early third round. He should be at 100% after dealing with shoulder issues all season in 2009 and there is no reason for him not to hit 25+ home runs with a batting average in the .290 to .300 range.

Overvalued:

I love Chipper Jones as a player, but his current average draft position seems too high. Looks to be partly because of the drop off in talent at third base that Jones is getting selected at his current ADP combined with the fact people automatically assume Jones is going to bounce back to hitting over .300 again this season. He turns 38 at the end of April and with the nagging injuries he is now encountering, I think there are much safer options much later in the draft, than to risk an 8th or 9th round pick on him.

			12 Teams		15 Teams
Rank	Name	ADP	Round	Pick	Round	Pick
1	Rodriguez, Alex	3	1	3	1	3
2	Longoria, Evan	10	1	10	1	10
3	Wright, David	14	2	2	1	14
4	Reynolds, Mark	20	2	8	2	5
5	Zimmerman, Ryan	36	3	12	3	6
6	Sandoval, Pablo	41	4	5	3	11
7	Ramirez, Aramis	63	6	3	5	3
8	Figgins, Chone	82	7	10	6	7
9	Young, Michael	91	8	7	7	1
10	Beckham, Gordon	92	8	8	7	2
11	Stewart, Ian	134	12	2	9	14
12	Beltre, Adrian	182	16	2	13	2
13	Gordon, Alex	211	18	7	15	1
14	Cantu, Jorge	171	15	3	12	6
15	Jones, Chipper	133	12	1	9	13
16	Kouzmanoff, Kevin	271	23	7	19	1
17	McGehee, Casey	216	18	12	15	6
18	Blake, Casey	226	19	10	16	1
19	Peralta, Jhonny	204	17	12	14	9
20	Headley, Chase	233	20	5	16	8

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
Expanded player rankings for all positions
Ages for all players as of opening day
Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the 2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP rankings will be outfielders.

2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Shortstops

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 13th, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the fourth article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for players at shortstop. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

Undervalued:

J.J Hardy is currently going off the board as the number 19 shortstop which is too low in my eyes. He had some issues last season like the increase in strikeouts and being demoted to Triple-A. But don’t fall into the trap that many fantasy baseball owners do. You are not drafting him based on last years performance, but are selecting him based on his future performance in 2010. If he hits second in the batting order after Denard Span and Joe Mauer, he is going to get pitches to hit and is going to score more runs that he would have in the National League.

Everth Cabrera / Alcides Escobar are undervalued depending on the makeup of your team. If you are short on stolen bases midway through the draft, you could wait on Elvis Andrus and grab Cabrera or Escobar several rounds later. Cabrera will get you more steals and Escobar will have fewer steals but a higher batting average between the two.

Overvalued:

People seem to be looking at Rafael Furcal as if it were still 2006. His days of 20-30 steals are over with his recent back problems. If you are going to take a shortstop at the spot in the draft where he is currently going, you need someone that performs much better in home runs and RBI or steals more bases than what Furcal is going to give you.

			12 Teams		15 Teams
Rank	Name	ADP	Round	Pick	Round	Pick
1	Hanley Ramirez	1	1	1	1	1
2	Jimmy Rollins	21	2	9	2	6
3	Troy Tulowitzki	17	2	5	2	2
4	Jose Reyes	23	2	11	2	8
5	Derek Jeter	51	5	3	4	6
6	Alexei Ramirez	105	9	9	7	15
7	Miguel Tejada	142	12	10	10	7
8	Jason Bartlett	104	9	8	7	14
9	Asdrubal Cabrera	155	13	11	11	5
10	Elvis Andrus	160	14	4	11	10
11	Yunel Escobar	151	13	7	11	1
12	Stephen Drew	113	10	5	8	8
13	J.J. Hardy	247	21	7	17	7
14	Everth Cabrera	223	19	7	15	13
15	Alcides Escobar	251	21	11	17	11
16	Rafael Furcal	131	11	11	9	11
17	Marco Scutaro	203	17	11	14	8
18	Erick Aybar	198	17	6	14	3
19	Ryan Theriot	238	20	10	16	13
20	Orlando Cabrera	187	16	7	13	7

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
Expanded player rankings for all positions
Ages for all players as of opening day
Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the 2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP rankings will be third basemen.

2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Second Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 12th, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the third article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for players at second base. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

Ben Zobrist looks to have good value based on where I have him ranked at compared to his average draft position. The position flexibility plus his ability to steal bases slots him ahead of Robinson Cano and Aaron Hill in my eyes. Speaking of Hill, I think he is going to high in drafts in relation to Dan Uggla. The numbers I have projected for Uggla and Hill will be pretty close to the same outside of batting average which should not place them that far apart in the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for second base.

I think there is great value for Jose Lopez as well because he is not that far away from Hill and Uggla in terms of production. Kelly Johnson is primed for a bounce back season in Arizona and offers good value based on his current ADP. Orlando Hudson is the one player I see that is overvalued on the list as the 12th second basemen going off the draft board. He is solid across the board, but so is every player behind him at that point in the draft and he offers no upside to his numbers.

			12 Teams		15 Teams
Rank	Name	ADP	Round	Pick	Round	Pick
1	Utley, Chase	4	1	4	1	4
2	Kinsler, Ian	16	2	4	2	1
3	Phillips, Brandon	30	3	6	2	15
4	Pedroia, Dustin	38	4	2	3	8
5	Roberts, Brian	40	4	4	3	10
6	Zobrist, Ben	59	5	11	4	14
7	Cano, Robinson	47	4	11	4	2
8	Hill, Aaron	48	4	12	4	3
9	Uggla, Dan	85	8	1	6	10
10	Lopez, Jose	120	10	12	8	15
11	Kendrick, Howie	134	12	2	9	14
12	Weeks, Rickie	192	16	12	13	12
13	Johnson, Kelly	280	24	4	19	10
14	Barmes, Clint	270	23	6	18	15
15	Polanco, Placido	243	21	3	17	3
16	Sizemore, Scott	249	21	9	17	9
17	Prado, Martin	245	21	5	17	5
18	Ellis, Mark	302	26	2	21	2
19	Hudson, Orlando	191	16	11	13	11
20	Lopez, Felipe	274	23	10	19	4

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
Expanded player rankings for all positions
Ages for all players as of opening day
Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the 2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP rankings will be shortstops.

2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – First Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 11th, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the second article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for players at first base. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

You can see from the grid below where the value drops off at first base, right after Billy Butler in round six or eight depending on the size of your league. There is then a seven to nine round gap before the next first basemen, Chris Davis, is selected. As mentioned in my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for first base, based on the current ADP I see Joey Votto and Chris Davis currently as overvalued with the players still left on the draft board where they are being selected.

Billy Butler keeps moving up in mock drafts to a point that he is almost overrated as well because you are now paying for last seasons numbers plus some improvement. People are discounting Lance Berkman because of his age and his injury in 2009, but to be able to get him at the end of the fourth round in a 15 team league gives him great value.

			12 Teams		15 Teams
Rank	Name	ADP	Round	Pick	Round	Pick
1	Albert Pujols	1	1	1	1	1
2	Ryan Howard	11	1	11	1	11
3	Mark Teixeira	7	1	7	1	7
4	Prince Fielder	9	1	9	1	9
5	Miguel Cabrera	10	1	10	1	10
6	Lance Berkman	57	5	9	4	12
7	Joey Votto	29	3	5	2	14
8	Kevin Youkilis	33	3	9	3	3
9	Justin Morneau	44	4	8	3	14
10	Adrian Gonzalez	32	3	8	3	2
11	Carlos Pena	75	7	3	5	15
12	Kendry Morales	54	5	6	4	9
13	Derrek Lee	85	8	1	6	10
14	Billy Butler	86	8	2	6	11
15	James Loney	205	18	1	14	10
16	Paul Konerko	201	17	9	14	6
17	Chris Davis	145	13	1	10	10
18	Adam LaRoche	194	17	2	13	14
19	Todd Helton	195	17	3	13	15
20	Aubrey Huff	287	24	11	20	2

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
Expanded player rankings for all positions
Ages for all players as of opening day
Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the 2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP rankings will be second basemen.

2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Catchers

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 10th, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the first article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for catchers. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

I have played in the NFBC before and it has some of the best fantasy baseball owners in the industry so I find the ADP numbers to be much more accurate. The NFBC has no trade leagues with 15 owners per league and standard fantasy baseball categories. The only difference in regards to roster size compared to some other fantasy baseball leagues is the use of two catchers.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

Also, position scarcity becomes much greater the larger your fantasy baseball league is. So in a 15 team league, the value of catcher is going to be much higher than in a 10 team league because there are more options to pick from. However, this does not mean you should pass on a catcher for a similar ranked outfielder even in a 10 team league. While there are many ways to win a fantasy baseball league, having the top player at a weak position regardless of league size is going to give you a step up on your competition.

If you agree with my rankings, or even if you use the grid and replace them with your own, it is easy to quickly get a look at where there is potential value. For instance in the chart below, Chris Ianetta has an ADP of 5 rounds higher than A.J. Pierzynski. With the possibility of a time share in Colorado and the downside to average the Ianetta brings, I don’t see there being a five round gap in value there.

			12 Teams		15 Teams
Rank	Name	ADP	Round	Pick	Round	Pick
1	Joe Mauer	14	2	2	1	14
2	Victor Martinez	25	3	1	2	10
3	Brian McCann	43	4	7	3	13
4	Matt Wieters	108	9	12	8	3
5	Jorge Posada	121	11	1	9	1
6	Geovany Soto	131	11	11	9	11
7	Miguel Montero	139	12	7	10	4
8	Russell Martin	147	13	3	10	12
9	Kurt Suzuki	151	13	7	11	1
10	Bengie Molina	159	14	3	11	9
11	Mike Napoli	172	15	4	12	7
12	Ryan Doumit	191	16	11	13	11
13	A.J. Pierzynski	235	20	7	16	10
14	Chris Iannetta	173	15	5	12	8
15	Yadier Molina	222	19	6	15	12
16	Carlos Ruiz	281	24	5	19	11
17	John Baker	280	24	4	19	10
18	Nick Hundley	336	28	12	23	6
19	Kelly Shoppach	337	29	1	23	7
20	Ramon Hernandez	334	28	10	23	4

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
Expanded player rankings for all positions
Ages for all players as of opening day
Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the 2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP rankings will be first basemen.

Fantasy Baseball – May Pitcher Rankings

Posted by Todd Lammi on June 2nd, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Instead of using some complicated formula to review May statistics, here is a breakdown of the numbers for the month sorted by category, for pitchers.

# PLAYER TEAM IP
1 Roy Halladay TOR 46
1 Zack Greinke KAN 46
3 CC Sabathia NYY 45.2
4 Carl Pavano CLE 45
5 Jered Weaver LAA 43
5 Johnny Cueto CIN 43
7 Adam Wainwright STL 42.2
8 Jason Marquis COL 42.1
8 Mark Buehrle CHW 42.1
8 Jake Peavy SDG 42.1
8 Edwin Jackson DET 42.1
8 Zach Duke PIT 42.1
13 Cliff Lee CLE 42
14 Justin Verlander DET 41.1
15 Derek Lowe ATL 40.2
15 Ted Lilly CHC 40.2
15 Matt Garza TAM 40.2
15 Ubaldo Jimenez COL 40.2
19 Barry Zito SFO 40.1
19 Matt Cain SFO 40.1

# PLAYER TEAM SO
1 Justin Verlander DET 56
2 Jake Peavy SDG 52
3 Javier Vazquez ATL 44
3 Zack Greinke KAN 44
5 Johan Santana NYM 42
5 Chad Billingsley LAD 42
7 Jon Lester BOS 41
7 Tim Lincecum SFO 41
9 Aaron Harang CIN 40
10 J. Zimmermann WAS 39
11 CC Sabathia NYY 37
11 Jorge De La Rosa COL 37
11 Max Scherzer ARI 37
14 Roy Halladay TOR 36
14 Ted Lilly CHC 36
14 Edwin Jackson DET 36
14 Felix Hernandez SEA 36
17 Dan Haren ARI 35
17 Cole Hamels PHI 35
17 Wandy Rodriguez HOU 35
17 James Shields TAM 35

# PLAYER TEAM Wins
1 Carl Pavano CLE 5
1 Justin Verlander DET 5
1 Rick Porcello DET 5
1 Tim Wakefield BOS 5
5 Derek Lowe ATL 4
5 Roy Halladay TOR 4
5 Ted Lilly CHC 4
5 Johan Santana NYM 4
5 Jason Marquis COL 4
5 Bronson Arroyo CIN 4
5 CC Sabathia NYY 4
5 Todd Wellemeyer STL 4
5 Edwin Jackson DET 4
5 John Maine NYM 4
5 Matt Cain SFO 4
5 Kevin Slowey MIN 4
5 Matt Palmer LAA 4
5 Randy Johnson SFO 4
19 Andy Pettitte NYY 3
19 Livan Hernandez NYM 3

# Player Team WHIP
1 Jake Peavy SDG 0.87
2 Justin Verlander DET 0.90
3 Zack Greinke KC 0.91
4 Johnny Cueto CIN 0.95
4 Jered Weaver LAA 0.95
6 CC Sabathia NYY 0.96
7 Scott Feldman TEX 1.01
8 Roy Halladay TOR 1.04
8 Edwin Jackson DET 1.04
8 Josh Outman OAK 1.04
11 Mark Buehrle CHW 1.06
11 Dan Haren ARI 1.06
11 Rick Porcello DET 1.06
14 Ted Lilly CHC 1.08
14 Brian Tallet TOR 1.08
16 Matt Palmer LAA 1.10
16 Javier Vazquez ATL 1.10
18 Scott Baker MIN 1.11
18 Zach Duke PIT 1.11
20 Tim Lincecum SFO 1.12

# Player Team ERA
1 Rick Porcello DET 1.50
2 Justin Verlander DET 1.52
3 Zack Greinke KC 1.57
4 Roy Halladay TOR 1.76
5 Jake Peavy SDG 2.13
6 Jered Weaver LAA 2.30
7 Edwin Jackson DET 2.34
8 Randy Wolf LAD 2.35
9 Josh Beckett BOS 2.38
10 Johan Santana NYM 2.43
11 Matt Cain SF 2.45
11 Josh Outman OAK 2.45
13 Mark Buehrle CHW 2.55
14 CC Sabathia NYY 2.56
15 Clayton Kershaw LAD 2.57
15 Cliff Lee CLE 2.57
17 Scott Feldman TEX 2.70
17 Livan Hernandez NYM 2.70
19 Johnny Cueto CIN 2.72
19 Josh Johnson FLA 2.72

RK PLAYER TEAM SV SO
1 Heath Bell SDG 15 26
2 F. Cordero CIN 14 22
2 F. Rodriguez NYM 14 27
4 Trevor Hoffman MIL 13 14
4 Ryan Franklin STL 13 16
4 Brian Fuentes LAA 13 19
4 Brad Lidge PHI 13 26
4 J. Papelbon BOS 13 28
9 Bobby Jenks CHW 12 15
9 Chad Qualls ARI 12 23
9 Matt Capps PIT 12 12
9 Brian Wilson SFO 12 23
13 Mariano Rivera NYY 11 26
13 Frank Francisco TEX 11 19
13 George Sherrill BAL 11 21
13 Jonathan Broxton LAD 11 39
17 Joe Nathan MIN 10 22
17 Fernando Rodney DET 10 17
17 Matt Lindstrom FLA 10 22
20 Kerry Wood CLE 8 21