ADP | Fantasy Baseball Tools

2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Rising / Falling

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 29th, 2010

With the last week of fantasy baseball drafts upon us, here is a look at some of the players with changes to their average draft position (ADP), based on a 15 team mixed league.

Rising:

Jose Reyes (round 1-4) – it all depends on your league and your level of risk but I saw him being drafted from the end of the first round until the middle of the fourth round in various drafts this past weekend.

Mike Napoli (round 8-9) – Napoli’s power outburst in spring training has him going ahead of some catchers strictly based on his spring training stats which is a mistake.

Jason Heyward (round 10) – the announcement that Heyward has won the starting job for the Atlanta Braves has pushed him up to the 10th round in recent drafts.

Chris Perez (round 13) – the injury to Kerry Wood opened the door for Perez as the Indians closer. There is no reason to expect Wood to return as the closer when he returns unless Perez falters in the role. With Wood a free agent at the end of this season unless he hits 55 games finished in 2010, the most likely scenario in which he closes is if he is traded to another team.

Sean Rodriguez (round 16) – remember that he only qualifies at outfield to begin the season so don’t wait until the late rounds of the draft thinking you are going to grab him at second base. His strikeout rate from his previous stints in the major leagues is still some cause for concern going forward.

Speed / Power combo outfielders – I think there was a lot of surprise this past weekend in drafts as speed / power combo outfielders were taken much higher than their average draft position. Guys like Nelson Cruz, Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen, etc. were all going a round or two higher. If you are targeting those types of hitters in drafts this weekend, you might need to bump them up your draft board.

Falling:

Brian Roberts (round 4) – injury concerns of his back and a possible drop in stolen bases has dropped him a round in drafts.

Lance Berkman (round – injury concerns plus the possibility of him starting the season on the disabled list has dropped his average draft position by three to four rounds.

Huston Street (round 13) – another injured player that dropped four rounds based on the uncertainty of his status.

Carlos Beltran (round 13-15) – it still looks like he will be back around the end of April / early part of May assuming he does not have any setbacks. Expect a decrease in stolen bases when he does return.

2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Rising / Falling

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 23rd, 2010

With spring training here and new information coming out every day on players, let’s take a look at the 2010 fantasy baseball average draft position (ADP) to see which players are moving up or down on the draft board.

Rising:

Roy Halladay (27th overall) – ADP was 34 two weeks ago and I have seen him going as high as the late teens in recent drafts. With pitching going early this season, Halladay is getting bumped up closer to Tim Lincecum. If there is any pitcher that is going to get 20 or more wins this season, Halladay would be the favorite at this point.

Justin Morneau (39) – ADP is up five spots but he has been going higher as well in recent mock drafts. Concerns about his back and a potential for less power have seem to have been erased from fantasy owners minds.

Josh Johnson (72) – ADP is up 10 spots from two weeks ago. Looks like owners at the end of the fifth round are afraid he will not make it back on the turn in snake drafts and are pulling the trigger a little bit sooner to ensure they get him.

Clayton Kershaw (98) – ADP up 15 spots. Being pulled higher by the early drafting of the Tier 1 pitchers. Arguably the last solid number one starter for your fantasy baseball team depending how much faith you have in Cole Hamels or Ubaldo Jimenez going after him.

Matt Wieters (99) – ADP up 9 spots and he is coming close to falling into the overrated category if he goes any higher. I don’t see his upside that much greater than Miguel Montero or Jorge Posada whom you can get four rounds later in the draft.

Huston Street (143) – ADP up 18 spots as he is last closer going off the board before the remaining relief pitchers who all have question marks tied to them.

Brett Anderson (166) – ADP up 25 spots as people are buying into the hype being spouted by magazines and other websites calling him the breakout pitcher of 2010. No longer has the potential to value for you based on where he is currently going in drafts.

James Loney (184) ADP up 20 spots that has pushed him up the first base rankings ahead of Adam LaRoche, Todd Helton and Paul Konerko. Combination of batting average plus I think people are hoping for an increase in power which I don’t see happening.

Falling:

Alfonso Soriano (77) – ADP down five spots and there is a chance he goes later than this. There is lots of good talent still on the board at the start of the sixth round. His recent comments about his knee that he had surgery on being only 80-85% healthy has to cause some concern if you are planning to draft him.

Michael Bourn (79) – ADP is down 12 spots from two weeks ago. Nice to see that people are starting to realize his true value and are pushing him back to a more reasonable position in that draft, although the 79th spot is still much too high.

Vladimir Guerrero (138) – ADP down 16 spots. Still might have another good season in him, but it is hard to tie up your utility spot this early in the draft since he does not qualify at any other position.

Chris Davis (158) – ADP down 13 spots as people are still trying to decide which version of him are they going to get. It looks like right now owners are not buying into his performance after he came back from Triple-A at the end of the 2009 season.

Jack Cust (232) – ADP down 77 spots thanks to crowded Oakland A’s roster that will limit Cust’s at bats in 2010. Low batting average is also tough to take this late in the draft unless you planned on taking him and surrounded him with high average hitters.

2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Closers

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 19th, 2010

This is the eighth article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for closers. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

Undervalued:

Chad Qualls looks undervalued to me as he is going in the last tier of closers. The dislocated kneecap that ended his season last August is supposed to be fully healed by spring training. He has always had good numbers with a career ERA of 3.32 and a 1.20 WHIP so I don’t see him imploding like some other closers will this season. If he had finished out the season, he would have been around 30 saves which would have tied him for 16th.

Overvalued:

It is not too often that 36-year-old relief pitchers suddenly morph into closers like Ryan Franklin did last season. His overall numbers look solid on the surface, but looking closer at the stats he had some woeful splits. His minuscule .79 ERA and .79 WHIP the first half turned into a 3.33 ERA and 1.70 after the All-Star break. Of more concern was his walk to strikeout ratio which was 1:1 during that time frame.

Brian Fuentes racked up 48 saves last season, but struggled in the second half with his control. ERA after the All-Star break was 4.81 with a 1.68 WHIP and he also recorded more walks that strikeouts. Batting average against jumped by 45 points and as an extreme fly ball pitcher, that makes him more susceptible to home runs in 2010 which would negatively impact his ERA.

			12 Teams		15 Teams
Rank	Name	ADP	Round	Pick	Round	Pick
1	Jonathan Broxton	70	6	10	5	10
2	Joe Nathan	76	7	4	6	1
3	Jonathan Papelbon	71	6	11	5	11
4	Mariano Rivera	73	7	1	5	13
5	Joakim Soria	102	9	6	7	12
6	Francisco Rodriguez	87	8	3	6	12
7	Andrew Bailey	127	11	7	9	7
8	Heath Bell	103	9	7	7	13
9	Jose Valverde	137	12	5	10	2
10	Huston Street	149	13	5	10	14
11	Brian Wilson	143	12	11	10	8
12	Francisco Cordero	108	9	12	8	3
13	Billy Wagner	150	13	6	10	15
14	Rafael Soriano	157	14	1	11	7
15	Brian Fuentes	117	10	9	8	12
16	Trevor Hoffman	170	15	2	12	5
17	Frank Francisco	204	17	12	14	9
18	Mike Gonzalez	206	18	2	14	11
19	Chad Qualls	228	19	12	16	3
20	David Aardsma	156	13	12	11	6
21	Carlos Marmol	143	12	11	10	8
22	Bobby Jenks	163	14	7	11	13
23	Ryan Franklin	153	13	9	11	3
24	Kerry Wood	227	19	11	16	2
25	Brad Lidge	229	20	1	16	4
26	Matt Capps	234	20	6	16	9
27	Leo Nunez	242	21	2	17	2
28	Jason Frasor	264	22	12	18	9
29	Octavio Dotel	271	23	7	19	1
30	Brandon Lyon	261	22	9	18	6

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
Expanded player rankings for all positions
Ages for all players as of opening day
Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Starting Pitchers

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 18th, 2010

This is the seventh article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for starting pitchers. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

Undervalued:

I have Ryan Dempster 11 spots higher on my starting pitcher list than his current ADP ranking. Numbers from 2008 and 2009 were pretty close to the same except for a drop in wins and some regression to his ERA that was to be expected. Has a much better percent chance of striking out 175+, having an ERA under 3.7 and a WHIP under 1.3 than quite a few people that are currently being drafted ahead of him.

Gavin Floyd was a top prospect for the Philadelphia Phillies and one of the top 50 prospects in the minor leagues when he was coming up through the farm system. It took him a little over 170 innings at the major league level before finally settling into a groove so the struggles he encountered still have some people not giving him enough credit. Bumped up his strikeout rate 1.3 per nine last season and decreased his home run rate. ERA went up slightly only because of the ineffectiveness of the bullpen behind him.

Hiroki Kuroda is ranked 50th on my list and is 66th according to his current average draft position. Injuries kept his innings down in 2009 which might partially explain his current standing. But in the innings he did pitch, he improved his strikeout per nine ratio by a batter.

Overvalued:

Starting pitchers in general. Last year in the NFBC, there were only three pitchers drafted in the first 50 picks on average. Those were Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana and CC Sabathia. This season there are eight pitchers with a current fantasy baseball ADP in the top 50.

If you look at the top 15 pitchers based on where they were drafted in the NFBC last season, you could argue that half of them were busts or went too high, either based on injury or performance. Those would include Santana, Jake Peavy, Cole Hamels, Francisco Liriano, Roy Oswalt and John Lackey. Even though they did not have terrible seasons, you could add Chad Billingsley and James Shields to that list as well as their actual value turned out to be much lower than where they were drafted.

Cliff Lee seems to scream overvalued to me based on where he is going in fantasy baseball mock drafts. Moves back to the American League where his control was not as sharp as it was in the NL. Will see a drop in his strikeout rate and if his strand rate which was higher than average the last two seasons regresses, his ERA is going to jump as well. Now, I am not saying to stay away from him, just that there several better options than him when you are on the clock to make your draft choice.

As I wrote about Javier Vazquez in the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for pitchers, I just don’t see how he is being drafted as high as he is. The move back to the American League (drop in strikeouts, higher ERA and WHIP) coupled with the move to the Eastern division and playing in New York (4.91 ERA and 1.29 WHIP when last with Yankees) means there is some regression coming to his 2009 numbers. Remember that you should be drafting players based on what they will do in 2010 and not what they did last season. I still see way too many people doing that. There are variables every year that impact performance and you need to be able to take these into account when the information is available to you.

A.J. Burnett I have ranked as the 37th pitcher compared to his ADP that places him at 29. An ERA over 4, plus a WHIP that hit 1.40 last season combined with a past injury history makes me leery of grabbing him too high in a mixed league draft. If you wait to draft starting pitchers and he is one of the top two pitchers on your team, you are going to need to surround with him low ratio pitchers so you don’t feel the full impact of his lack of control.

			12 Teams		15 Teams
Rank	Name	ADP	Round	Pick	Round	Pick
1	Tim Lincecum	13	2	1	1	13
2	Roy Halladay	31	3	7	3	1
3	Dan Haren	41	4	5	3	11
4	Zack Greinke	31	3	7	3	1
5	Felix Hernandez	32	3	8	3	2
6	CC Sabathia	29	3	5	2	14
7	Justin Verlander	47	4	11	4	2
8	Johan Santana	46	4	10	4	1
9	Adam Wainwright	61	6	1	5	1
10	Josh Johnson	80	7	8	6	5
11	Jon Lester	62	6	2	5	2
12	Tommy Hanson	87	8	3	6	12
13	Chris Carpenter	81	7	9	6	6
14	Cliff Lee	56	5	8	4	11
15	Josh Beckett	86	8	2	6	11
16	Yovani Gallardo	98	9	2	7	8
17	Matt Cain	95	8	11	7	5
18	Cole Hamels	105	9	9	7	15
19	Jake Peavy	86	8	2	6	11
20	Ubaldo Jimenez	106	9	10	8	1
21	Clayton Kershaw	105	9	9	7	15
22	Javier Vazquez	63	6	3	5	3
23	Ricky Nolasco	111	10	3	8	6
24	Chad Billingsley	126	11	6	9	6
25	Wandy Rodriguez	122	11	2	9	2
26	Brandon Webb	142	12	10	10	7
27	Jair Jurrjens	140	12	8	10	5
28	Ryan Dempster	169	15	1	12	4
29	Brett Anderson	175	15	7	12	10
30	James Shields	133	12	1	9	13
31	Jered Weaver	139	12	7	10	4
32	John Lackey	128	11	8	9	8
33	Matt Garza	129	11	9	9	9
34	Scott Baker	158	14	2	11	8
35	Gavin Floyd	194	17	2	13	14
36	Max Scherzer	150	13	6	10	15
37	A.J. Burnett	132	11	12	9	12
38	Ted Lilly	156	13	12	11	6
39	Roy Oswalt	158	14	2	11	8
40	John Danks	168	14	12	12	3
41	David Price	185	16	5	13	5
42	Carlos Zambrano	171	15	3	12	6
43	Tim Hudson	219	19	3	15	9
44	Rich Harden	226	19	10	16	1
45	Clay Buchholz	211	18	7	15	1
46	Kevin Slowey	225	19	9	15	15
47	Scott Kazmir	185	16	5	13	5
48	Jonathan Sanchez	240	20	12	16	15
49	J.A. Happ	254	22	2	17	14
50	Hiroki Kuroda	261	22	9	18	6
51	Randy Wolf	193	17	1	13	13
52	Francisco Liriano	247	21	7	17	7
53	Johnny Cueto	239	20	11	16	14
54	Rick Porcello	222	19	6	15	12
55	Jorge de la Rosa	202	17	10	14	7
56	Daisuke Matsuzaka	203	17	11	14	8
57	Jeff Niemann	230	20	2	16	5
58	Ervin Santana	243	21	3	17	3
59	Mark Buehrle	248	21	8	17	8
60	Joe Blanton	283	24	7	19	13

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
Expanded player rankings for all positions
Ages for all players as of opening day
Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the 2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP rankings will be closers.

2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Outfield

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 17th, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the sixth article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for players in the outfield. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

Undervalued:

Juan Pierre is currently being selected after the majority of base stealers like Michael Bourn, Nyjer Morgan, Julio Borbon and Rajai Davis which is baffling to me. He has a proven track record in the major leagues and out of all the players on the list has the best chance of hitting .300, scoring 100 runs and stealing 50 bases. Each of the players going before him have questions that he does not carry. The only downside to him the last two years was his lack of playing time which will not be an issue in Chicago this year.

I like Nolan Reimold this season based on his current average draft position. His limited at bats upon arriving in the major leagues his suppressing his value this year it seems. Hit .299 after the All-Star break in 187 at bats with 6 home runs, 22 RBI and 6 stolen bases. If you pro-rate that to 540 at bats, you are looking at a line of roughly 78 runs scored, 18 home runs, 66 RBI and 18 steals. I expect the RBI to be a little more than that and steals less, but he should still crack double digits.

Cody Ross, not a sexy pick, but is good value based on current ADP with the ability to get you 20-25 home runs late in the draft with 80-90 RBI.

Overvalued:

One dimensional speed demons. I wrote about this back in the article on 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for outfielders. It is not a good idea to take an outfielder as high as Michael Bourn that has value tied up mainly in one category. If your team goal is 180 stolen bases and you have him projected for 60, that accounts for 33% of your teams total. Any type of pulled hamstring or injured ankle and then your team is scrambling for stolen bases during the year. There is also a lot of fluctuation in stolen bases from year to year so 60 stolen bases for him last season might only be 50 in 2010.

I also mentioned when discussing Bourn that taking him that high weakens you are another position that has less depth than in the outfield. I would much rather have the choice to pick between an outfielder at the end of the draft where the talent pool is much deeper that having to take a scrub middle infielder. Then you are taking hit in multiple categories like home runs and RBI by rostering Bourn plus a scrub infielder late, than getting an infielder where Bourn is being drafted and then grabbing an outfielder to close out the draft.

You are much better off getting stolen bases in the first four rounds of the draft spread out between four players rather than have the risk of your speed tied to the legs of one individual.

Andrew McCutchen is an exciting young player but much like Joey Votto at first base, the expectations for 2010 are pushing him very high in mock drafts lately. Started out as a 9th round pick back in December and has steadily been moving up the ladder ever since. Current ADP is toward end of 6th round in a 15 team mixed draft and I would not be surprised to see him going at the end of the 4th round by the time the season starts.

You have to remember though just like in an auction format, your goal when drafting is to get the best value out of each pick. The higher in the draft he goes, the higher his stat line you are forecasting becomes.

			12 Teams		15 Teams
Rank	Name	ADP	Round	Pick	Round	Pick
1	Ryan Braun	5	1	5	1	5
2	Matt Kemp	8	1	8	1	8
3	Matt Holliday	22	2	10	2	7
4	Jacoby Ellsbury	19	2	7	2	4
5	Carl Crawford	15	2	3	1	15
6	Jason Bay	26	3	2	2	11
7	Justin Upton	28	3	4	2	13
8	Grady Sizemore	26	3	2	2	11
9	Jayson Werth	35	3	11	3	5
10	Nick Markakis	50	5	2	4	5
11	Adam Lind	44	4	8	3	14
12	Nelson Cruz	65	6	5	5	5
13	Curtis Granderson	52	5	4	4	7
14	Andre Ethier	68	6	8	5	8
15	Manny Ramirez	64	6	4	5	4
16	Adam Dunn	55	5	7	4	10
17	B.J. Upton	59	5	11	4	14
18	Carlos Lee	70	6	10	5	10
19	Shin-Soo Choo	69	6	9	5	9
20	Bobby Abreu	76	7	4	6	1
21	Alfonso Soriano	75	7	3	5	15
22	Shane Victorino	70	6	10	5	10
23	Josh Hamilton	54	5	6	4	9
24	Torii Hunter	93	8	9	7	3
25	Hunter Pence	86	8	2	6	11
26	Ichiro Suzuki	41	4	5	3	11
27	Andrew McCutchen	87	8	3	6	12
28	Nate McLouth	88	8	4	6	13
29	Denard Span	122	11	2	9	2
30	Jay Bruce	118	10	10	8	13
31	Alex Rios	107	9	11	8	2
32	Raul Ibanez	95	8	11	7	5
33	Carlos Quentin	103	9	7	7	13
34	Johnny Damon	118	10	10	8	13
35	Jason Kubel	115	10	7	8	10
36	Adam Jones	88	8	4	6	13
37	Carlos Gonzalez	121	11	1	9	1
38	Nolan Reimold	201	17	9	14	6
39	Brad Hawpe	114	10	6	8	9
40	Carlos Beltran	89	8	5	6	14
41	Garrett Jones	152	13	8	11	2
42	Michael Cuddyer	116	10	8	8	11
43	Ryan Ludwick	192	16	12	13	12
44	Juan Pierre	205	18	1	14	10
45	Chris Coghlan	212	18	8	15	2
46	Vernon Wells	185	16	5	13	5
47	Jermaine Dye	176	15	8	12	11
48	Corey Hart	178	15	10	12	13
49	Colby Rasmus	195	17	3	13	15
50	Nick Swisher	236	20	8	16	11
51	Cody Ross	264	22	12	18	9
52	Michael Bourn	75	7	3	5	15
53	Nyjer Morgan	129	11	9	9	9
54	Rajai Davis	165	14	9	11	15
55	Julio Borbon	187	16	7	13	7
56	Juan Rivera	179	15	11	12	14
57	Josh Willingham	222	19	6	15	12
58	Franklin Gutierrez	241	21	1	17	1
59	Mike Cameron	227	19	11	16	2
60	Travis Snider	224	19	8	15	14

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
Expanded player rankings for all positions
Ages for all players as of opening day
Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the 2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP rankings will be starting pitchers.

2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Third Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 16th, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the fifth article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for players at third base. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

Undervalued:

Kevin Kouzmanoff at pick 271 0verall looks like great value now that he is away from Petco Park. He hit only .200 at home vs. 287 on the road in 2009. He should also see a boost in runs scored now playing in the American League as well.

If I am picking at the end of the 4th round of a 15 team mixed league, I would be ecstatic if Aramis Ramirez was still on the draft board. It was just a year ago that he was a pick at the end of the second or early third round. He should be at 100% after dealing with shoulder issues all season in 2009 and there is no reason for him not to hit 25+ home runs with a batting average in the .290 to .300 range.

Overvalued:

I love Chipper Jones as a player, but his current average draft position seems too high. Looks to be partly because of the drop off in talent at third base that Jones is getting selected at his current ADP combined with the fact people automatically assume Jones is going to bounce back to hitting over .300 again this season. He turns 38 at the end of April and with the nagging injuries he is now encountering, I think there are much safer options much later in the draft, than to risk an 8th or 9th round pick on him.

			12 Teams		15 Teams
Rank	Name	ADP	Round	Pick	Round	Pick
1	Rodriguez, Alex	3	1	3	1	3
2	Longoria, Evan	10	1	10	1	10
3	Wright, David	14	2	2	1	14
4	Reynolds, Mark	20	2	8	2	5
5	Zimmerman, Ryan	36	3	12	3	6
6	Sandoval, Pablo	41	4	5	3	11
7	Ramirez, Aramis	63	6	3	5	3
8	Figgins, Chone	82	7	10	6	7
9	Young, Michael	91	8	7	7	1
10	Beckham, Gordon	92	8	8	7	2
11	Stewart, Ian	134	12	2	9	14
12	Beltre, Adrian	182	16	2	13	2
13	Gordon, Alex	211	18	7	15	1
14	Cantu, Jorge	171	15	3	12	6
15	Jones, Chipper	133	12	1	9	13
16	Kouzmanoff, Kevin	271	23	7	19	1
17	McGehee, Casey	216	18	12	15	6
18	Blake, Casey	226	19	10	16	1
19	Peralta, Jhonny	204	17	12	14	9
20	Headley, Chase	233	20	5	16	8

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
Expanded player rankings for all positions
Ages for all players as of opening day
Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the 2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP rankings will be outfielders.

2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Shortstops

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 13th, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the fourth article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for players at shortstop. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

Undervalued:

J.J Hardy is currently going off the board as the number 19 shortstop which is too low in my eyes. He had some issues last season like the increase in strikeouts and being demoted to Triple-A. But don’t fall into the trap that many fantasy baseball owners do. You are not drafting him based on last years performance, but are selecting him based on his future performance in 2010. If he hits second in the batting order after Denard Span and Joe Mauer, he is going to get pitches to hit and is going to score more runs that he would have in the National League.

Everth Cabrera / Alcides Escobar are undervalued depending on the makeup of your team. If you are short on stolen bases midway through the draft, you could wait on Elvis Andrus and grab Cabrera or Escobar several rounds later. Cabrera will get you more steals and Escobar will have fewer steals but a higher batting average between the two.

Overvalued:

People seem to be looking at Rafael Furcal as if it were still 2006. His days of 20-30 steals are over with his recent back problems. If you are going to take a shortstop at the spot in the draft where he is currently going, you need someone that performs much better in home runs and RBI or steals more bases than what Furcal is going to give you.

			12 Teams		15 Teams
Rank	Name	ADP	Round	Pick	Round	Pick
1	Hanley Ramirez	1	1	1	1	1
2	Jimmy Rollins	21	2	9	2	6
3	Troy Tulowitzki	17	2	5	2	2
4	Jose Reyes	23	2	11	2	8
5	Derek Jeter	51	5	3	4	6
6	Alexei Ramirez	105	9	9	7	15
7	Miguel Tejada	142	12	10	10	7
8	Jason Bartlett	104	9	8	7	14
9	Asdrubal Cabrera	155	13	11	11	5
10	Elvis Andrus	160	14	4	11	10
11	Yunel Escobar	151	13	7	11	1
12	Stephen Drew	113	10	5	8	8
13	J.J. Hardy	247	21	7	17	7
14	Everth Cabrera	223	19	7	15	13
15	Alcides Escobar	251	21	11	17	11
16	Rafael Furcal	131	11	11	9	11
17	Marco Scutaro	203	17	11	14	8
18	Erick Aybar	198	17	6	14	3
19	Ryan Theriot	238	20	10	16	13
20	Orlando Cabrera	187	16	7	13	7

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
Expanded player rankings for all positions
Ages for all players as of opening day
Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the 2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP rankings will be third basemen.

2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Second Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 12th, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the third article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for players at second base. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

Ben Zobrist looks to have good value based on where I have him ranked at compared to his average draft position. The position flexibility plus his ability to steal bases slots him ahead of Robinson Cano and Aaron Hill in my eyes. Speaking of Hill, I think he is going to high in drafts in relation to Dan Uggla. The numbers I have projected for Uggla and Hill will be pretty close to the same outside of batting average which should not place them that far apart in the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for second base.

I think there is great value for Jose Lopez as well because he is not that far away from Hill and Uggla in terms of production. Kelly Johnson is primed for a bounce back season in Arizona and offers good value based on his current ADP. Orlando Hudson is the one player I see that is overvalued on the list as the 12th second basemen going off the draft board. He is solid across the board, but so is every player behind him at that point in the draft and he offers no upside to his numbers.

			12 Teams		15 Teams
Rank	Name	ADP	Round	Pick	Round	Pick
1	Utley, Chase	4	1	4	1	4
2	Kinsler, Ian	16	2	4	2	1
3	Phillips, Brandon	30	3	6	2	15
4	Pedroia, Dustin	38	4	2	3	8
5	Roberts, Brian	40	4	4	3	10
6	Zobrist, Ben	59	5	11	4	14
7	Cano, Robinson	47	4	11	4	2
8	Hill, Aaron	48	4	12	4	3
9	Uggla, Dan	85	8	1	6	10
10	Lopez, Jose	120	10	12	8	15
11	Kendrick, Howie	134	12	2	9	14
12	Weeks, Rickie	192	16	12	13	12
13	Johnson, Kelly	280	24	4	19	10
14	Barmes, Clint	270	23	6	18	15
15	Polanco, Placido	243	21	3	17	3
16	Sizemore, Scott	249	21	9	17	9
17	Prado, Martin	245	21	5	17	5
18	Ellis, Mark	302	26	2	21	2
19	Hudson, Orlando	191	16	11	13	11
20	Lopez, Felipe	274	23	10	19	4

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
Expanded player rankings for all positions
Ages for all players as of opening day
Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the 2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP rankings will be shortstops.

2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – First Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 11th, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the second article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for players at first base. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

You can see from the grid below where the value drops off at first base, right after Billy Butler in round six or eight depending on the size of your league. There is then a seven to nine round gap before the next first basemen, Chris Davis, is selected. As mentioned in my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for first base, based on the current ADP I see Joey Votto and Chris Davis currently as overvalued with the players still left on the draft board where they are being selected.

Billy Butler keeps moving up in mock drafts to a point that he is almost overrated as well because you are now paying for last seasons numbers plus some improvement. People are discounting Lance Berkman because of his age and his injury in 2009, but to be able to get him at the end of the fourth round in a 15 team league gives him great value.

			12 Teams		15 Teams
Rank	Name	ADP	Round	Pick	Round	Pick
1	Albert Pujols	1	1	1	1	1
2	Ryan Howard	11	1	11	1	11
3	Mark Teixeira	7	1	7	1	7
4	Prince Fielder	9	1	9	1	9
5	Miguel Cabrera	10	1	10	1	10
6	Lance Berkman	57	5	9	4	12
7	Joey Votto	29	3	5	2	14
8	Kevin Youkilis	33	3	9	3	3
9	Justin Morneau	44	4	8	3	14
10	Adrian Gonzalez	32	3	8	3	2
11	Carlos Pena	75	7	3	5	15
12	Kendry Morales	54	5	6	4	9
13	Derrek Lee	85	8	1	6	10
14	Billy Butler	86	8	2	6	11
15	James Loney	205	18	1	14	10
16	Paul Konerko	201	17	9	14	6
17	Chris Davis	145	13	1	10	10
18	Adam LaRoche	194	17	2	13	14
19	Todd Helton	195	17	3	13	15
20	Aubrey Huff	287	24	11	20	2

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
Expanded player rankings for all positions
Ages for all players as of opening day
Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the 2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP rankings will be second basemen.

2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Catchers

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 10th, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the first article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for catchers. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

I have played in the NFBC before and it has some of the best fantasy baseball owners in the industry so I find the ADP numbers to be much more accurate. The NFBC has no trade leagues with 15 owners per league and standard fantasy baseball categories. The only difference in regards to roster size compared to some other fantasy baseball leagues is the use of two catchers.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

Also, position scarcity becomes much greater the larger your fantasy baseball league is. So in a 15 team league, the value of catcher is going to be much higher than in a 10 team league because there are more options to pick from. However, this does not mean you should pass on a catcher for a similar ranked outfielder even in a 10 team league. While there are many ways to win a fantasy baseball league, having the top player at a weak position regardless of league size is going to give you a step up on your competition.

If you agree with my rankings, or even if you use the grid and replace them with your own, it is easy to quickly get a look at where there is potential value. For instance in the chart below, Chris Ianetta has an ADP of 5 rounds higher than A.J. Pierzynski. With the possibility of a time share in Colorado and the downside to average the Ianetta brings, I don’t see there being a five round gap in value there.

			12 Teams		15 Teams
Rank	Name	ADP	Round	Pick	Round	Pick
1	Joe Mauer	14	2	2	1	14
2	Victor Martinez	25	3	1	2	10
3	Brian McCann	43	4	7	3	13
4	Matt Wieters	108	9	12	8	3
5	Jorge Posada	121	11	1	9	1
6	Geovany Soto	131	11	11	9	11
7	Miguel Montero	139	12	7	10	4
8	Russell Martin	147	13	3	10	12
9	Kurt Suzuki	151	13	7	11	1
10	Bengie Molina	159	14	3	11	9
11	Mike Napoli	172	15	4	12	7
12	Ryan Doumit	191	16	11	13	11
13	A.J. Pierzynski	235	20	7	16	10
14	Chris Iannetta	173	15	5	12	8
15	Yadier Molina	222	19	6	15	12
16	Carlos Ruiz	281	24	5	19	11
17	John Baker	280	24	4	19	10
18	Nick Hundley	336	28	12	23	6
19	Kelly Shoppach	337	29	1	23	7
20	Ramon Hernandez	334	28	10	23	4

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
Expanded player rankings for all positions
Ages for all players as of opening day
Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the 2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP rankings will be first basemen.

Fantasy Baseball – May Pitcher Rankings

Posted by Todd Lammi on June 2nd, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Instead of using some complicated formula to review May statistics, here is a breakdown of the numbers for the month sorted by category, for pitchers.

# PLAYER TEAM IP
1 Roy Halladay TOR 46
1 Zack Greinke KAN 46
3 CC Sabathia NYY 45.2
4 Carl Pavano CLE 45
5 Jered Weaver LAA 43
5 Johnny Cueto CIN 43
7 Adam Wainwright STL 42.2
8 Jason Marquis COL 42.1
8 Mark Buehrle CHW 42.1
8 Jake Peavy SDG 42.1
8 Edwin Jackson DET 42.1
8 Zach Duke PIT 42.1
13 Cliff Lee CLE 42
14 Justin Verlander DET 41.1
15 Derek Lowe ATL 40.2
15 Ted Lilly CHC 40.2
15 Matt Garza TAM 40.2
15 Ubaldo Jimenez COL 40.2
19 Barry Zito SFO 40.1
19 Matt Cain SFO 40.1

# PLAYER TEAM SO
1 Justin Verlander DET 56
2 Jake Peavy SDG 52
3 Javier Vazquez ATL 44
3 Zack Greinke KAN 44
5 Johan Santana NYM 42
5 Chad Billingsley LAD 42
7 Jon Lester BOS 41
7 Tim Lincecum SFO 41
9 Aaron Harang CIN 40
10 J. Zimmermann WAS 39
11 CC Sabathia NYY 37
11 Jorge De La Rosa COL 37
11 Max Scherzer ARI 37
14 Roy Halladay TOR 36
14 Ted Lilly CHC 36
14 Edwin Jackson DET 36
14 Felix Hernandez SEA 36
17 Dan Haren ARI 35
17 Cole Hamels PHI 35
17 Wandy Rodriguez HOU 35
17 James Shields TAM 35

# PLAYER TEAM Wins
1 Carl Pavano CLE 5
1 Justin Verlander DET 5
1 Rick Porcello DET 5
1 Tim Wakefield BOS 5
5 Derek Lowe ATL 4
5 Roy Halladay TOR 4
5 Ted Lilly CHC 4
5 Johan Santana NYM 4
5 Jason Marquis COL 4
5 Bronson Arroyo CIN 4
5 CC Sabathia NYY 4
5 Todd Wellemeyer STL 4
5 Edwin Jackson DET 4
5 John Maine NYM 4
5 Matt Cain SFO 4
5 Kevin Slowey MIN 4
5 Matt Palmer LAA 4
5 Randy Johnson SFO 4
19 Andy Pettitte NYY 3
19 Livan Hernandez NYM 3

# Player Team WHIP
1 Jake Peavy SDG 0.87
2 Justin Verlander DET 0.90
3 Zack Greinke KC 0.91
4 Johnny Cueto CIN 0.95
4 Jered Weaver LAA 0.95
6 CC Sabathia NYY 0.96
7 Scott Feldman TEX 1.01
8 Roy Halladay TOR 1.04
8 Edwin Jackson DET 1.04
8 Josh Outman OAK 1.04
11 Mark Buehrle CHW 1.06
11 Dan Haren ARI 1.06
11 Rick Porcello DET 1.06
14 Ted Lilly CHC 1.08
14 Brian Tallet TOR 1.08
16 Matt Palmer LAA 1.10
16 Javier Vazquez ATL 1.10
18 Scott Baker MIN 1.11
18 Zach Duke PIT 1.11
20 Tim Lincecum SFO 1.12

# Player Team ERA
1 Rick Porcello DET 1.50
2 Justin Verlander DET 1.52
3 Zack Greinke KC 1.57
4 Roy Halladay TOR 1.76
5 Jake Peavy SDG 2.13
6 Jered Weaver LAA 2.30
7 Edwin Jackson DET 2.34
8 Randy Wolf LAD 2.35
9 Josh Beckett BOS 2.38
10 Johan Santana NYM 2.43
11 Matt Cain SF 2.45
11 Josh Outman OAK 2.45
13 Mark Buehrle CHW 2.55
14 CC Sabathia NYY 2.56
15 Clayton Kershaw LAD 2.57
15 Cliff Lee CLE 2.57
17 Scott Feldman TEX 2.70
17 Livan Hernandez NYM 2.70
19 Johnny Cueto CIN 2.72
19 Josh Johnson FLA 2.72

RK PLAYER TEAM SV SO
1 Heath Bell SDG 15 26
2 F. Cordero CIN 14 22
2 F. Rodriguez NYM 14 27
4 Trevor Hoffman MIL 13 14
4 Ryan Franklin STL 13 16
4 Brian Fuentes LAA 13 19
4 Brad Lidge PHI 13 26
4 J. Papelbon BOS 13 28
9 Bobby Jenks CHW 12 15
9 Chad Qualls ARI 12 23
9 Matt Capps PIT 12 12
9 Brian Wilson SFO 12 23
13 Mariano Rivera NYY 11 26
13 Frank Francisco TEX 11 19
13 George Sherrill BAL 11 21
13 Jonathan Broxton LAD 11 39
17 Joe Nathan MIN 10 22
17 Fernando Rodney DET 10 17
17 Matt Lindstrom FLA 10 22
20 Kerry Wood CLE 8 21

Fantasy Baseball – the Daily Dirt for Monday

Posted by Todd Lammi on May 25th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

It was a painful loss for the Tampa Bay Rays, as the blew a 10-0 lead in an 11-10 loss to the Cleveland Indians. The blown lead was the largest in team history. The Rays used four relievers in the ninth inning, the last one being Jason Isringhausen, but none of them could stop the bleeding as the Indians rallied for seven runs to pull out the come from behind win. Rookie David Price, getting the start for the injured Scott Kazmir, displayed the same wildness that had been plaguing him in the minor leagues, as he walked five and allowed four hits in 3 1/3 innings while throwing 100 pitches. He did manage to strike out six and only allowed two runs, but his high pitch count limited his innings. Ryan Garko hit two home runs for the Indians and drove in five runs to pace the Tribe’s offense. In other fantasy baseball happenings around the diamond on Monday…

Hitters:

Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira continue to lead the surging New York Yankees offense, as the team pounded out 19 hits in an 11-1 win over the Texas Rangers. A-Rod went 5 for 5 with 4 RBI and Teixeira went 2 for 4 with three runs scored and two RBI.

Who needs Manny Ramirez? The Los Angeles Dodgers pounded out 19 hits en route to a 16-6 pasting of the Colorado Rockies. Matt Kemp, Juan Castro and Juan Pierre each knocked in three runs.

The Chicago White Sox made short work of Ervin Santana, banging out 23 hits on their way to a 17-3 win over the Los Angeles Angels. Jermaine Dye (12), Jim Thome (8) and Paul Konerko (7) all went deep for the White Sox. The lone bright spot for the Angles was the return of Vladimir Guerrero to the line up.

Nelson Cruz hit his 12th home run of the year for the lone score for the Rangers. Cruz has homered 5 times in his last six games while driving in 10 runs. He has now collected an RBI in six consecutive games.

Ryan Howard hit two home runs and drove in three to provide all the offense for the Philadelphia Phillies in a 5-3 loss to the Florida Marlins. Howard now has 12 home runs on the season and 33 RBI.

Jonny Gomes went 3 for 4 with 3 RBI for the Cincinnati Reds in their 8-5 win over the Houston Astros. Gomes is a good pickup in National League only leagues as he should see playing time against left-handed starters.

Adrian Gonzalez hit his 17th home run of the season in the San Diego Padres 9-7 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks in 10 innings. Scott Hairston went 3 for 5 and is now batting .333. With the trade of Jody Gerut to Milwaukee earlier in the week, Hairston should be someone to target if he is still on the waiver wire in your fantasy baseball league.

It took him 100 at bats but Travis Ishikawa finally hit his first home run of the season in the San Francisco Giants 8-2 win over the Atlanta Braves. Ishikawa went 4 for 4 and drove in three runs. He is going to need more games like that if he does not want to lose at bats to recent call up Jesus Guzman.

Freddy Sanchez went 6 for 6 and scored four times to lead the Pittsburgh Pirates to a 10-8 win over the Chicago Cubs. Sanchez drove in three runs and hit his fourth home run of the season.

Pitchers:

Justin Verlander pitched seven shutout innings with eight strikeouts in a 13-1 win over the Kansas City Royals. It marked the sixth consecutive game that Verlander has notched eight or more strikeouts. The outing was the most economical Verlander has been with his pitches all season, making it through seven innings on 96 pitches.

Jeremy Guthrie allowed one run in seven innings with four strikeouts to pitch the Baltimore Orioles past the Toronto Blue Jays 4-1. Guthrie’s biggest problem this season has been the home run, allowing 11 in 53 2/3 innings before his start on Monday.

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 1-0 in 10 innings on a RBI single by Bill Hall. Both starting pitchers were superb in the game, with Chris Carpenter tossing eight scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts for the Cardinals, and Yovani Gallardo hurling eight shutout innings for the Brewers with six strikeouts.

Phil Hughes scattered three hits in eight shutout innings to pick up his third win of the season. Hughes struck out six while allowing only one walk to lower his ERA to 5.16.

Brett Anderson allowed one run in six innings with four strikeouts to gain his second win of the season. It marks the second consecutive good start for the rookie who may be on the verge of turning things around for good.

Jonathan Sanchez, subject to some trade rumors earlier in the week, allowed two runs in five innings with six strikeouts to earn his second win of the year.

John Maine allowed one run in six innings with four strikeouts to get his fourth win of the season. Despite his 4.18 ERA he conitunes to be bothered by walks. With a 30 to 36 walk to strikeout ratio, Maine is on pace for 108 walks this season which would be a career high.

Closers:

Jonathan Papelbon picked up his 12th save of the season, but it marked back-to-back games that he surrendered two runs and a home run.

Francisco Rodriguez (back spasms) returned to action for the New York Mets and picked up his 13th save of the season.

2009 Fantasy Baseball ADP Movers

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 28th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

With the final two weekends of fantasy baseball drafts upon us, let’s take a look at the latest movers for average draft position, using the results from Mock Draft Central for the NFBC scoring system (which is 15 team leagues) for the previous week.

James McDonald (+91) – in the running for the 5th starter position for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Don’t know why the Dodgers wasted time having him pitch in relief in spring and are just now trying to stretch him out. Gets overlooked by scouts because he does not have dominating stuff, but he always seems to get the job done.

Brett Anderson / Trevor Cahill (+63/+61) – I wrote about both of these players in one of my earlier posts about rookies who would eventually have a job this season. With Gio Gonzalez recently sent down and Justin Duchscherer starting the season on the disabled list, it looks like Cahill and Anderson coudl slot into the number four and five spots in the rotation.

Leo Nunez (+50) – With Matt Lindstrom bothered by a strained rotator cuff, Nunez might have a chance to grab some saves in the early the season for the Flordia Marlins. If you own Lindstrom in a league, you should look to grab Nunez as a handcuff.

Brett Gardner (+43) – Gardner seems to be moving up the draft board every weel and the last wee has been no exception. The problem for him is Melky Cabrera has caught fire the last few weeks of spring training so the decision could go down to the final week. There is still a chance that Cabrera gets traded to someone in need of an outfielder at some point this year, regardless of where he starts the season for the New York Yankees.

Jordan Zimmerman (+42) – he is a sleeper no more, now it will take a pick in the 15-17th round to get him in a 14-15 team mixed draft league. He starts the season as the number five starter for the Washington Nationals, but in all likelihood he will be the best pitcher by the end of the season, if he is not already.

Chris Getz (+42) – has been named the starting second basemen for the Chicago White Sox and his value get could a little bit more of a boost if he hits in the top two spots in the batting lineup as he has been the last few games. He is up to four stolen bases so far in spring.

Jordan Schafer (+38) – Schafer is hitting close to .400 this spring with five stolen bases and seems to have pulled ahead of Gregor Blanco and Josh Anderson the starting center field job with the Atlanta Braves. Schafer ended last year in AA so there is always the possiblity the Braves let him start the year in AAA if they feel his defense his below Blanco’s and Anderson’s.

Micah Owings (+35) - Owings seems to have locked up the fifth starter position with the Cincinatti Reds. He is a good late round pick if you are looking for strikeouts.

Emilio Bonifacio (+33) – Bonifacio has had a huge couple of games in spring training recently so people seem to be using that as a reason to draft him. Based on the current Florida Marlins roster however, he does not have a starting job, so if he makes the team, it will be as a utility man.

Ivan Rodriguez (+28) – recently signed by the Houston Astros, Rodriguez looks like he will start the season batting second. He should be able to squueze out another good season at age 37 and is one of the few sources for steals from the catcher position.

2009 Fantasy Baseball Closer ADP

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 18th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Here are the current rankings from Mock Draft Central for a 15-team mixed league fantasy baseball league draft using the NFBC scoring system for closers and relief pitchers.

Rank	Pitchers	ADP	Pitchers	ADP
1	J. Papelbon	59	Dan Wheeler	295
2	Brad Lidge	67	Grant Balfour	297
3	Joe Nathan	79	Rafael Perez	297
4	F. Rodriguez	81	Hong-Chih Kuo	297
5	Mariano Rivera	87	Kevin Gregg	307
6	Joakim Soria	95	C.J. Wilson	313
7	Bobby Jenks	106	Jon Rauch	313
8	Jose Valverde	113	Joel Zumaya	314
9	J. Broxton	117	Rafael Soriano	316
10	Brian Fuentes	118	Takashi Saito	318
11	Carlos Marmol	125	Jeff Samardzija	319
12	B.J. Ryan	126	Ryan Franklin	323
13	Matt Capps	144	F. Rodney	327
14	F. Cordero	148	Hideki Okajima	332
15	Kerry Wood	150	M. Kobayashi	334
16	Brian Wilson	162	Scot Shields	338
17	Mike Gonzalez	168	J. Masterson	342
18	Heath Bell	169	Miguel Batista	345
19	Matt Lindstrom	173	Jensen Lewis	349
20	Trevor Hoffman	184	Mark Lowe	349
21	Chad Qualls	190	Scott Linebrink	351
22	Joey Devine	191	J. Isringhausen	358
23	Huston Street	197	Octavio Dotel	365
24	Joel Hanrahan	200	Braden Looper	367
25	Frank Francisco	212	M. Delcarmen	368
26	Brandon Lyon	227	Jeremy Accardo	369
27	Brad Ziegler	232	Tyler Walker	373
28	Chris Perez	248	Tony Pena	377
29	J.J. Putz	253	Eric Gagne	378
30	George Sherrill	257	R. Betancourt	379
31	Troy Percival	258	Scott Downs	388
32	Chris Ray	291	Leo Nunez	392
33	Manny Corpas	291	Chad Cordero	392
34	Jason Motte	293	Aaron Heilman	398
35	Dan Wheeler	295	Juan Cruz	411
36	Grant Balfour	297	Ryan Madson	412

2009 Fantasy Baseball Pitcher ADP

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 17th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Here are the current rankings from Mock Draft Central for a 15-team mixed league fantasy baseball league draft using the NFBC scoring system for pitchers.

Rank	Pitchers	ADP	Pitchers	ADP	Pitchers	ADP
1	Johan Santana	22	Gavin Floyd	171	T. Wellemeyer	309
2	Tim Lincecum	28	Matt Garza	176	David Bush	310
3	CC Sabathia	37	Scott Baker	181	Jamie Moyer	310
4	Cole Hamels	45	Erik Bedard	185	Taylor Buchholz	311
5	Jake Peavy	48	Ted Lilly	191	Ian Snell	312
6	Brandon Webb	50	C. Kershaw	194	Brad Penny	312
7	Roy Halladay	50	Aaron Cook	197	Anibal Sanchez	312
8	Dan Haren	59	Joe Saunders	197	Joe Blanton	314
9	F. Liriano	72	Jair Jurrjens	203	Ben Sheets	315
10	Josh Beckett	75	Johnny Cueto	206	Clay Buchholz	316
11	Roy Oswalt	78	Gil Meche	216	Anthony Reyes	317
12	Cliff Lee	78	C. Wang	216	Sean Marshall	317
13	James Shields	84	Jered Weaver	216	Gio Gonzalez	317
14	Chad Billingsley	84	J. Duchscherer	220	Glen Perkins	320
15	Ervin Santana	88	Mike Pelfrey	233	Barry Zito	320
16	Scott Kazmir	93	W. Rodriguez	236	J. Bonderman	321
17	John Lackey	94	Andy Pettitte	237	Sean Gallagher	321
18	Felix Hernandez	95	Jon. Sanchez	239	Kyle Davies	336
19	A.J. Burnett	105	John Maine	241	Tim Redding	336
20	Jon Lester	105	Scott Olsen	245	Homer Bailey	336
21	D. Matsuzaka	113	Jesse Litsch	245	Andrew Miller	337
22	Yovani Gallardo	116	Hiroki Kuroda	249	D. McGowan	338
23	E. Volquez	116	Oliver Perez	258	John Lannan	338
24	C. Zambrano	125	Jeremy Guthrie	263	J.P. Howell	339
25	Rich Harden	126	Chris Carpenter	264	Greg Smith	339
26	Ricky Nolasco	126	Ubaldo Jimenez	264	Edwin Jackson	340
27	Matt Cain	127	A. Galarraga	271	Pedro Martinez	340
28	Justin Verlander	132	John Smoltz	274	Rich Hill	341
29	Javier Vazquez	132	Manny Parra	276	J. de la Rosa	346
30	A. Wainwright	136	K. Kawakami	278	Shaun Marcum	351
31	Zack Greinke	138	Paul Maholm	284	Tim Wakefield	355
32	Brett Myers	143	Koji Uehara	288	Trevor Cahill	357
33	Chris Young	151	F. Carmona	289	Tim Hudson	362
34	Josh Johnson	153	Mark Buehrle	290	Dana Eveland	362
35	Randy Johnson	157	A. Sonnanstine	292	Shawn Hill	365
36	John Danks	158	Philip Hughes	297	Jon Garland	366
37	Derek Lowe	161	Kyle Lohse	303	Dallas Braden	386
38	Ryan Dempster	164	Kelvim Escobar	305	Brian Bannister	391
39	Aaron Harang	166	Bronson Arroyo	307	Micah Owings	394
40	Kevin Slowey	169	Randy Wolf	308	Kevin Millwood	400

2009 Fantasy Baseball Outfielder ADP

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 16th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Here are the current rankings from Mock Draft Central for a 15-team mixed league fantasy baseball league draft using the NFBC scoring system for outfielders.

Rank	Outfield	ADP	Outfield	ADP	Outfield	ADP
1	Grady Sizemore	6	Xavier Nady	157	Josh Willingham	304
2	Ryan Braun	7	Milton Bradley	158	Josh Anderson	304
3	Josh Hamilton	12	Pat Burrell	158	Jack Cust	304
4	Matt Holliday	16	Eric Byrnes	173	Chase Headley	304
5	B.J. Upton	19	Conor Jackson	176	Daniel Murphy	305
6	Carlos Beltran	21	Adam Jones	185	Ken Griffey	305
7	Manny Ramirez	22	Justin Upton	192	Felix Pie	308
8	Carlos Lee	23	Hideki Matsui	196	Nyjer Morgan	309
9	Alfonso Soriano	24	Jeremy Hermida	197	Ben Francisco	309
10	Carl Crawford	27	Denard Span	200	G. Anderson	310
11	Ichiro Suzuki	28	Rick Ankiel	208	Colby Rasmus	312
12	Nick Markakis	33	Nick Swisher	208	K. Fukudome	312
13	Matt Kemp	33	Fred Lewis	222	Jody Gerut	313
14	Jason Bay	35	Elijah Dukes	226	Jerry Owens	316
15	Alex Rios	38	Coco Crisp	227	Gary Matthews	317
16	Carlos Quentin	39	Delmon Young	227	Chris Duncan	317
17	Vlad Guerrero	42	C. Maybin	231	F. Gutierrez	317
18	C. Granderson	48	Adam Lind	233	Ryan Sweeney	322
19	Shane Victorino	49	Luke Scott	234	Matt Joyce	329
20	Jacoby Ellsbury	51	Carlos Gomez	240	Jerry Hairston	331
21	Nate McLouth	54	Ryan Church	247	Matt LaPorta	335
22	Corey Hart	55	Jeff Francoeur	248	Marcus Thames	339
23	Bobby Abreu	61	Shin-Soo Choo	250	Brian Giles	340
24	M. Ordonez	66	David DeJesus	256	Carlos Gonzalez	341
25	Adam Dunn	68	Juan Pierre	256	Brett Gardner	343
26	Hunter Pence	72	Randy Winn	266	Dexter Fowler	346
27	Jermaine Dye	92	Mike Cameron	268	Melky Cabrera	348
28	Ryan Ludwick	92	M. Cuddyer	275	Andruw Jones	359
29	Jay Bruce	94	Ryan Spilborghs	276	A. McCutchen	363
30	Torii Hunter	103	J.D. Drew	278	Mark Teahen	365
31	Chris Young	103	Michael Bourn	279	Eric Hinske	367
32	Johnny Damon	109	Jose Guillen	283	Rocco Baldelli	369
33	Andre Ethier	109	Jason Kubel	283	Matt Diaz	370
34	Vernon Wells	110	Aaron Rowand	287	W. Balentien	373
35	Raul Ibanez	120	Chris Dickerson	288	Steven Pearce	375
36	Nelson Cruz	129	Cody Ross	292	Seth Smith	381
37	Jayson Werth	132	David Murphy	293	Rajai Davis	382
38	Brad Hawpe	132	Juan Rivera	297	Travis Buck	385
39	L. Milledge	132	Travis Snider	298	Scott Podsednik	397
40	Willy Taveras	147	Skip Schumaker	301	Marlon Byrd	398

2009 Fantasy Baseball Infielder ADP

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 15th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Here are the current rankings from Mock Draft Central for a 15-team mixed league fantasy baseball league draft using the NFBC scoring system for infielders.

Rank	First Base	ADP	Second Base	ADP	Third Base	ADP
1	Albert Pujols	3	Ian Kinsler	11	David Wright	4
2	Miguel Cabrera	7	Chase Utley	16	Alex Rodriguez	12
3	Ryan Howard	12	Dustin Pedroia	23	Evan Longoria	21
4	Mark Teixeira	13	Brandon Phillips	29	Aramis Ramirez	32
5	Lance Berkman	17	Brian Roberts	36	Chipper Jones	54
6	Justin Morneau	22	Alexei Ramirez	49	Garrett Atkins	76
7	Prince Fielder	25	Dan Uggla	65	Chone Figgins	79
8	Adrian Gonzalez	37	Robinson Cano	83	Aubrey Huff	90
9	Kevin Youkilis	40	Howie Kendrick	129	R.Zimmerman	96
10	Chris Davis	59	Jose Lopez	162	E. Encarnacion	120
11	Joey Votto	66	Kaz Matsui	181	Alex Gordon	145
12	Carlos Pena	69	Mark DeRosa	191	Jorge Cantu	146
13	Derrek Lee	75	Kelly Johnson	193	Adrian Beltre	153
14	James Loney	100	Placido Polanco	200	Carlos Guillen	196
15	Carlos Delgado	101	Rickie Weeks	201	Ty Wigginton	201
16	Paul Konerko	170	Orlando Hudson	265	Melvin Mora	207
17	Hank Blalock	180	Felipe Lopez	267	Mark Reynolds	212
18	Pablo Sandoval	203	Mark Ellis	267	Casey Blake	253
19	Jason Giambi	203	Akinori Iwamura	269	K. Kouzmanoff	256
20	Mike Jacobs	212	Alexi Casilla	277	Ian Stewart	266

Rank	Shortstop	ADP	Second Base	ADP	Utility	ADP
1	Hanley Ramirez	1	Russell Martin	45	David Ortiz	53
2	Jose Reyes	4	Brian McCann	48	Jim Thome	169
3	Jimmy Rollins	9	Joe Mauer	59	Travis Hafner	244
4	Rafael Furcal	60	Geovany Soto	65	Kendry Morales	272
5	Michael Young	84	Victor Martinez	74	Gary Sheffield	296
6	Stephen Drew	87	Ryan Doumit	119
7	Derek Jeter	95	Matt Wieters	130
8	Troy Tulowitzki	96	Chris Iannetta	138
9	Jhonny Peralta	99	Mike Napoli	155
10	J.J. Hardy	106	Bengie Molina	170
11	Miguel Tejada	126	Jorge Posada	210
12	O. Cabrera	160	Jeff Clement	240
13	Mike Aviles	170	A.J. Pierzynski	251
14	Ryan Theriot	186	R. Hernandez	253
15	Yunel Escobar	191	Dioner Navarro	258
16	Khalil Greene	204	Kurt Suzuki	268
17	Jason Bartlett	218	Kelly Shoppach	276
18	Edgar Renteria	239	Gerald Laird	303
19	Jed Lowrie	254	Yadier Molina	311
20	C. Guzman	274	Brandon Inge	312

2009 Fantasy Baseball Upside / Downside Rounds 6-10

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 12th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Following up on my previous post, lets look at rounds 6-10 of the draft with each player having the biggest upside or downside per round. The same assumptions are in play, 15 team mixed league fantasy baseball draft, using the average draft positions (ADP) from Mock Draft Central and the NFBC scoring system.

Round 6:

Upside - Ryan Ludwick (88) – The upside is not there in terms of performance; I don’t see him surpassing his 37 home runs of a year ago, but with the his ADP currently as the third from last pick of round 6, I would be happy to take 32 home runs and a .285 average from him. Remember last year, he started off in a platoon situation with the St. Louis Cardinals, so the stats he put up were in roughly 75-100 at bats less than what he will have this season, barring any type of injury of course.

Downside - Scott Kazmir (90) – He has only thrown over 200 innings one time in the last three years. The injury risk alone makes push him below some of the pitchers that are going in rounds 7-9. Add in his wildness at the end of last season, he walked 18 batters in 25 2/3 innings in the postseason and the 6th round is too high for him.

Round 7:

Upside – Joakim Soria (94) – The seventh round is usually where I start looking for a closer in a 15 team draft if there is a solid pick that has slid that far. Soria at #94 fits that profile this season. It would be nice if his strikeout rate was a little bit higher, but with his earned run average and whip ratio, that might be nit-picking him too much. People discount him because he plays for the Kansas City Royals, but bad teams tend to play quite a few close games when they do win, so save chances will always be available. Currently he is the sixth closer being drafted.

Downside - James Loney (99) – One thing to keep in mind when projecting rookies or young players seeing at bats for the first time is that is not a good idea to prorate stats from a partial season and assume that he will carry those numbers into the following year. Case in point is James Loney who hit .331 in 344 at bats in 2007 with 15 home runs. A lot of people were projecting him for 25 home runs and 100+ rbi with a .300 average last season and he came up way short in the home run department with only 13. His career high in the minor leagues was 11 in 2005.

Round 8:

Upside – J.J. Hardy (105) – So I cheated a little bit and stuck him in round 8, although technically his ADP is the last pick of round 7. Hardy has put up two pretty similar seasons the last two years. His stats are pretty much in line with Troy Tulowitzki and Jhonny Peralta, both of which are going a full one round higher than Hardy in mock drafts. Alcides Escobar may be the future for the Milwaukee Brewers at shortstop but he is no threat to Hardy’s job in 2009.

Downside - Joba Chamberlain (107) – Yes, in his 11 starts he put up some nice numbers, but he only had three wins to show for it, despite striking out 74 batters in 65 innings. In 2009, he is slated to open the season as the New York Yankees fifth starter which means he might get skipped a start or two for rainouts or additional rest. If the New York Yankees fall out of the play-off race late in the year, there is a chance they would limit his innings since he only threw a little over 100 last season. With Daisuke Matsuzaka, Edison Volquez and Yovani Gallardo all going after Chamberlain, in addition to Carlos Zambrano, Rich Harden and Ricky Nolasco, there are better options in the 8th round with less risk attached to them.

Round 9:

Upside - Brad Hawpe (132) – There is not much upside potential in round 9, but Hawpe being available at the end of the round is a good pick. He offers a solid average in the .290 range with 25 home runs and 100 rbi potential.

Downside – Nelson Cruz (128) – Fantasy players are going a little overboard I think in projecting Cruz’s 2009 numbers based on 115 at bats in 2008. Yes he has power potential, but remember that he is already 28, this is not a rookie we are talking about. Last year was his third season in the major leagues with the Texas Rangers. If you combine his stats over three seasons with Texas, his numbers are 22 home runs, 82 rbi and 6 steals in 552 at bats. Not bad numbers, but there is a reason those numbers are spread out over three years; the Rangers have never given him chance at 500+ at bats in one season. With Marlon Byrd and Andruw Jones in the wings, there is no guarantee he gets those at bats this year either, unless he gets off to a blazing start to the season. There is a lot of risk to picking him in the 8th round with other alternatives still on the draft board.

Round 10:

Upside – Jorge Cantu (143) – It is nice to find a corner infielder with 30 home run power still on the board in round 10. Cantu offers the additional flexibility of qualifying at 1b and 3b. He also turned the magical age of 27 in January if you believe in that phenomenon.

Downside – Xavier Nady (149) Nady had a career year with the Pittsburgh Pirates / New York Yankees last season. With all career years, there is always a very good chance for regression the following season. The Yankees also have a few extra hitters floating around in their outfield so Nady might lose 100-150 at bats even as a starter, depdning how much playing time the combination of Melky Cabrera / Brett Gardner / Nick Swisher receive.

2009 Fantasy Baseball Upside / Downside Rounds 1-5

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 11th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Today we are going to look at the one person with the most upside and downside per round based on a 15 team fantasy baseball draft with average draft positions provided by Mock Draft Central.

Round 1:

Upside - Ryan Braun (7) – Has a great chance of hitting over 40 home run this season, with 100+ runs and rbi’s. Add in 15-20 steals and the potential for a .300 average and Braun represents the best upside in the first round, based on his draft slot and the chance to exceed his 2008 numbers.

Downside - Ian Kinsler (9) – I like Kinsler, but not at number nine. He has never surpassed 518 at bats in the last three years and with the possibility to grab Pedroia / Phillips/ Roberts in the 2nd round or even Alexei Ramirez in the third round, Kinsler is going to leave some owners crushed if they are picking him this high.

Round 2:

Upside - Alfonso Soriano (24) – it was just two years ago he was 40-40 and that was for the lowly Washington Nationals. Prorate his numbers over a whole season last year and Soriano would have been at 44 home runs and 28 stolen bases. If you are slotted in the in the 7-9 spots of your draft order, count your lucky stars if Soriano falls to you in the second round.

Downside – Dustin Pedroia (23) There is some regression coming this year, there is little chance Pedroia duplicates his stats from last season. Take away 10 steals from Pedroia and a couple of home runs and you are looking at Kelly Johnson plus 30 points in batting average. Not a second round pick in my eyes with the other players available on the board.

Round 3:

Upside - Matt Kemp (38) The explosion is coming, it might be a year away, but soon we will be seeing regular seasons of 25 home runs and 35+ steals from Mr. Kemp. To get those steals in the middle of the third round, plus close to a .300 average is a bargain.

Downside - Kevin Youkilis (37) Not sure that I believe he is a 30 home run hitter after hitting only 16 in 2007. Even if I knew for certain he was going to hit 30, I would rather wait until round 4 or 5 and grab Chris Davis or Joey Votto. There is better value available in the third round.

Round 4:

Upside - Alexei Ramirez (48) – his numbers are not that far off from the three second baseman that are going ahead of him in the draft, discounting Chase Utley. Ramirez will have the added bonus after three weeks into the regular season of being eligible at SS for those leagues with a 20 game rule.

Downside - Joe Mauer (53) – Mauer is coming off of kidney surgery in January and recently has been bothered by a sore back. There are four very good options at catcher available after Mauer, who could potentially start the season the disabled list. I would take the following; Soto (67), Victor Martinez (78), Doumit (120) and Ianetta (133), all ahead of Mauer.

Round 5:

Upside - Chris Davis (65) – Has a chance to be this year’s Ryan Howard with a higher batting average. A nice upside pick with the chance to hit 35-40 home runs and bat over .290.

Downside - Magglio Ordonez (64) – Ordonez had a solid year last year, and is always around the .300 mark but with zero speed and with only 20-25 home run, spending a fifth round pick on him is not a good investment. There are lots of outfielders you can select later on in the draft that will put up the same or better numbers than Ordonez will in 2008.

2009 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Rising / Falling

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 3rd, 2009

Finally the month of March has come. That means fantasy baseball drafts are right around the corner. Now that spring training is officially underway, lets take a look at some the player’s whose average draft position are rising and falling the last two weeks, courtesy of Mock Draft Central.

Rising:

Brett Gardner – Gardner has been on the rise with talk out of New York that he has a chance to possibly be the Yankees opening day center fielder and lead off hitter. Gardner has the potential to steal 40 bases with a full-time job and his current ADP of 374 puts him the 24-26 round range depending if you have 14 or 15 teams in your league. He is also a good target for AL-only leagues where steals are at a premium.

Dana Eveland – no real news on Eveland so far in spring. People could be picking up on his first half numbers of 3.49 e.r.a and 1.4 whip ratio with 74 strikeouts as his true numbers before he bombed in the second half and was sent to Triple-A in August for a short time. ADP has increased 120 spots in the last two weeks.

Daniel Murphy – his ADP jump of 99 spots has to be driven by New York Mets fans. He might be part of a platoon with Fernando Tatis in the outfield. His minor league numbers suggest the potential for a decent .280-.300 batting average with 10-15 home runs and 60-70 rbi’s.

Miguel Batista – currently the leader in a three arm race with Mark Lowe and Roy Corcoran to be the Seattle Mariner’s closer. His numbers in relief last season were not any better than when he was a starter. APD has risen 90 spots, putting him in the 25th round range. If he enter the season as the closer, he might be good for 10-15 saves before he loses the job.

Aaron Heilman – Heilman is currently battling for the 5th starter spot with the Chicago Cubs. With multiple bullpen options already with Carlos Marmol, Kevin Gregg, Chad Gaudin and possibly Jeff Samardzija, it makes sense to see if Heilman can bolster the rotation. ADP has jumped 76 spots in the last two weeks.

Falling:

Ben Sheets - was close to signing a contract with the Texas Rangers last month before they discovered he had a torn flexor tendon in his elbow. The surgery is expected to sideline him until after the All-Star break. Not worth drafting unless you play in a dynasty / ultimate league. ADP has fallen 139 spots.

Braden Looper - recently signed by the Milwaukee Brewers, Looper will miss the next 1-2 weeks with an oblique strain and could start the season on the disabled list. ADP has dropped 62 spots the last two weeks.

Jeremy Bonderman - recently underwent an MRI on his right shoulder, his availability for the start of the season in the Detroit Tigers rotation is still in question. ADP has declined 22 spots.

Josh Fields - Fields, the potential starting third basemen for the Chicago White Sox will have to battle Wilson Betemit and recently signed Cuban defector Dayan Viciedo for the position. Fields has lost some of his luster as a prospect from a few years ago as he is now 26 and put up disappointing numbers in Triple-A last season. His ADP has slid 21 spots.

Mike Fontenot – Fontenot appeared slated to be the starting second basemen for the Chicago Cubs until the Cubs signed Aaron Miles to a two year contract. They could end up in a platoon role with Fontenot getting the majority of at bats as the left-handed hitter. Fontenot’s ADP has fallen 26 spots the last two weeks.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Rising / Falling

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