If you are searching for more 2011 fantasy baseball ADP information, here is a look at some data from the NFBC for their slow drafts they have been conducting from the middle of December through last week. Again, I tend to give this data a little more credence since this is a high stakes event and the skill level of the fantasy baseball owner that you are competing against is likely higher than any other league that you play in.
This data is from nine fantasy baseball drafts and shows the first six rounds. With 15 picks per round, there are a total of 90 players selected during that time. Of the total drafts, there were 113 different players selected so there are a few players at the fringe that some owners are undecided on. Here is a look at the current first round for 2011 fantasy baseball adp.
1. Albert Pujols – no surprise, he was first in all nine drafts.
2. Miguel Cabrera – just edges out Hanley, going second six of nine times.
3. Hanley Ramirez – went as low as 6th in one draft.
4. Troy Tulowitzki – lots of people seem to be looking at the numbers he put up in the last month.
5. Carlos Gonzalez – as high as three, as low as nine.
6. Carl Crawford – high of four, low of 11.
7. Joey Votto – makes him the 3rd first basemen in the first round.
8. Ryan Braun – went as high as six in one draft.
9. Evan Longoria – has over taken A-Rod as the top 3B.
10. Robinson Cano – a little more power and he jumps up two to three rounds.
11. Adrian Gonzalez – fantasy baseball owners looking for big things from him now in Boston.
12. Alex Rodriguez – went as high as 10, as low as 16.
13. David Wright – went higher than A-Rod in two drafts.
14. Roy Halladay – as high as 8 and as low as 20.
15. Josh Hamilton – as high as 11, as low as 19.
As many people that say the draft is won in the later rounds, it is also won in the first round as well. If you look at the final ADP (average draft position) for the last few years and then check their final fantasy baseball rankings, you will see that half of the times the players picked in the first round don’t end up their in terms of value. While I would not call these players busts because they still put up good stats, there ends up being better players that should have been selected.
If I had to pick five players from the list that will not be in the to p15 at the end of the season, I would probably say:
1. Robinson Cano – doesn’t steal bases and if he hits 17 home runs and .300 then he is not in the first round.
2. Troy Tulowitzki – too streaky.
3. Josh Hamilton – injury prone
4. Carlos Gonzalez – could go 25-20 and not finish in the first round for value.
5. Alex Rodriguez – age, drop in batting average and lack of steals
Again, these are not players to avoid or not take in the first round, but if I had to choose who will not be a first round pick in terms of value by the end of the year, those are my choices.
Other interesting data to be gleaned from the ADP so far. Young players are high up on the board this year. Everybody is looking for that guy that is going to break out and be this year’s Carlos Gonzalez. At some point however, players are getting drafted too high that they have to have a incredible year in order to justify their spot. Here is a look at where some of the young guns are going.
Buster Posey (35) – ahead of Brian McCann
Jason Heyward (41) – some injury risk with him a little too high at this point
Mike Stanton (65) – early in the 5th round, he better hit a ton of home runs for people to be picking him here.
Carlos Santana (80) – early in 6th round
It looks like middle infielders have taken a step back from 2010 as the good majority of them look to be going lower in 2011. Ian Kinsler (33), Jimmy Rollins (40), Brandon Phillips (42), Derek Jeter (67).
Other players of note:
Jose Bautista (51) – high of 34, low of 60
Pedro Alvarez – drafted in four of nine drafts, went: 62, 89, 89, 90
Mark Reynolds – drafted in six of nine drafts, high of 55