by Todd Lammi
This is the sixth article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for players in the outfield. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.
The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.
Undervalued:
Juan Pierre is currently being selected after the majority of base stealers like Michael Bourn, Nyjer Morgan, Julio Borbon and Rajai Davis which is baffling to me. He has a proven track record in the major leagues and out of all the players on the list has the best chance of hitting .300, scoring 100 runs and stealing 50 bases. Each of the players going before him have questions that he does not carry. The only downside to him the last two years was his lack of playing time which will not be an issue in Chicago this year.
I like Nolan Reimold this season based on his current average draft position. His limited at bats upon arriving in the major leagues his suppressing his value this year it seems. Hit .299 after the All-Star break in 187 at bats with 6 home runs, 22 RBI and 6 stolen bases. If you pro-rate that to 540 at bats, you are looking at a line of roughly 78 runs scored, 18 home runs, 66 RBI and 18 steals. I expect the RBI to be a little more than that and steals less, but he should still crack double digits.
Cody Ross, not a sexy pick, but is good value based on current ADP with the ability to get you 20-25 home runs late in the draft with 80-90 RBI.
Overvalued:
One dimensional speed demons. I wrote about this back in the article on 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for outfielders. It is not a good idea to take an outfielder as high as Michael Bourn that has value tied up mainly in one category. If your team goal is 180 stolen bases and you have him projected for 60, that accounts for 33% of your teams total. Any type of pulled hamstring or injured ankle and then your team is scrambling for stolen bases during the year. There is also a lot of fluctuation in stolen bases from year to year so 60 stolen bases for him last season might only be 50 in 2010.
I also mentioned when discussing Bourn that taking him that high weakens you are another position that has less depth than in the outfield. I would much rather have the choice to pick between an outfielder at the end of the draft where the talent pool is much deeper that having to take a scrub middle infielder. Then you are taking hit in multiple categories like home runs and RBI by rostering Bourn plus a scrub infielder late, than getting an infielder where Bourn is being drafted and then grabbing an outfielder to close out the draft.
You are much better off getting stolen bases in the first four rounds of the draft spread out between four players rather than have the risk of your speed tied to the legs of one individual.
Andrew McCutchen is an exciting young player but much like Joey Votto at first base, the expectations for 2010 are pushing him very high in mock drafts lately. Started out as a 9th round pick back in December and has steadily been moving up the ladder ever since. Current ADP is toward end of 6th round in a 15 team mixed draft and I would not be surprised to see him going at the end of the 4th round by the time the season starts.
You have to remember though just like in an auction format, your goal when drafting is to get the best value out of each pick. The higher in the draft he goes, the higher his stat line you are forecasting becomes.
| 12 Teams | 15 Teams | ||||||
| Rank | Name | ADP | Round | Pick | Round | Pick | |
| 1 | Ryan Braun | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | |
| 2 | Matt Kemp | 8 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 8 | |
| 3 | Matt Holliday | 22 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 7 | |
| 4 | Jacoby Ellsbury | 19 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 4 | |
| 5 | Carl Crawford | 15 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 15 | |
| 6 | Jason Bay | 26 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | |
| 7 | Justin Upton | 28 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 | |
| 8 | Grady Sizemore | 26 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | |
| 9 | Jayson Werth | 35 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 5 | |
| 10 | Nick Markakis | 50 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 5 | |
| 11 | Adam Lind | 44 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 14 | |
| 12 | Nelson Cruz | 65 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | |
| 13 | Curtis Granderson | 52 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 7 | |
| 14 | Andre Ethier | 68 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 8 | |
| 15 | Manny Ramirez | 64 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | |
| 16 | Adam Dunn | 55 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 10 | |
| 17 | B.J. Upton | 59 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 14 | |
| 18 | Carlos Lee | 70 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 10 | |
| 19 | Shin-Soo Choo | 69 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 9 | |
| 20 | Bobby Abreu | 76 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 1 | |
| 21 | Alfonso Soriano | 75 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 15 | |
| 22 | Shane Victorino | 70 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 10 | |
| 23 | Josh Hamilton | 54 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 9 | |
| 24 | Torii Hunter | 93 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 3 | |
| 25 | Hunter Pence | 86 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 11 | |
| 26 | Ichiro Suzuki | 41 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 11 | |
| 27 | Andrew McCutchen | 87 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 12 | |
| 28 | Nate McLouth | 88 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 13 | |
| 29 | Denard Span | 122 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 2 | |
| 30 | Jay Bruce | 118 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 13 | |
| 31 | Alex Rios | 107 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 2 | |
| 32 | Raul Ibanez | 95 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 5 | |
| 33 | Carlos Quentin | 103 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 13 | |
| 34 | Johnny Damon | 118 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 13 | |
| 35 | Jason Kubel | 115 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 10 | |
| 36 | Adam Jones | 88 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 13 | |
| 37 | Carlos Gonzalez | 121 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 1 | |
| 38 | Nolan Reimold | 201 | 17 | 9 | 14 | 6 | |
| 39 | Brad Hawpe | 114 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 9 | |
| 40 | Carlos Beltran | 89 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 14 | |
| 41 | Garrett Jones | 152 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 2 | |
| 42 | Michael Cuddyer | 116 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 11 | |
| 43 | Ryan Ludwick | 192 | 16 | 12 | 13 | 12 | |
| 44 | Juan Pierre | 205 | 18 | 1 | 14 | 10 | |
| 45 | Chris Coghlan | 212 | 18 | 8 | 15 | 2 | |
| 46 | Vernon Wells | 185 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 5 | |
| 47 | Jermaine Dye | 176 | 15 | 8 | 12 | 11 | |
| 48 | Corey Hart | 178 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 13 | |
| 49 | Colby Rasmus | 195 | 17 | 3 | 13 | 15 | |
| 50 | Nick Swisher | 236 | 20 | 8 | 16 | 11 | |
| 51 | Cody Ross | 264 | 22 | 12 | 18 | 9 | |
| 52 | Michael Bourn | 75 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 15 | |
| 53 | Nyjer Morgan | 129 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 9 | |
| 54 | Rajai Davis | 165 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 15 | |
| 55 | Julio Borbon | 187 | 16 | 7 | 13 | 7 | |
| 56 | Juan Rivera | 179 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 14 | |
| 57 | Josh Willingham | 222 | 19 | 6 | 15 | 12 | |
| 58 | Franklin Gutierrez | 241 | 21 | 1 | 17 | 1 | |
| 59 | Mike Cameron | 227 | 19 | 11 | 16 | 2 | |
| 60 | Travis Snider | 224 | 19 | 8 | 15 | 14 | |
The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.
The Draft Guide includes the following:
- Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
- Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
- Expanded player rankings for all positions
- Ages for all players as of opening day
- Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
- The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
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Next up in the 2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP rankings will be starting pitchers.
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