This is the eighth article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for closers. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.
The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.
Undervalued:
Chad Qualls looks undervalued to me as he is going in the last tier of closers. The dislocated kneecap that ended his season last August is supposed to be fully healed by spring training. He has always had good numbers with a career ERA of 3.32 and a 1.20 WHIP so I don’t see him imploding like some other closers will this season. If he had finished out the season, he would have been around 30 saves which would have tied him for 16th.
Overvalued:
It is not too often that 36-year-old relief pitchers suddenly morph into closers like Ryan Franklin did last season. His overall numbers look solid on the surface, but looking closer at the stats he had some woeful splits. His minuscule .79 ERA and .79 WHIP the first half turned into a 3.33 ERA and 1.70 after the All-Star break. Of more concern was his walk to strikeout ratio which was 1:1 during that time frame.
Brian Fuentes racked up 48 saves last season, but struggled in the second half with his control. ERA after the All-Star break was 4.81 with a 1.68 WHIP and he also recorded more walks that strikeouts. Batting average against jumped by 45 points and as an extreme fly ball pitcher, that makes him more susceptible to home runs in 2010 which would negatively impact his ERA.
| 12 Teams | 15 Teams | ||||||
| Rank | Name | ADP | Round | Pick | Round | Pick | |
| 1 | Jonathan Broxton | 70 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 10 | |
| 2 | Joe Nathan | 76 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 1 | |
| 3 | Jonathan Papelbon | 71 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 11 | |
| 4 | Mariano Rivera | 73 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 13 | |
| 5 | Joakim Soria | 102 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 12 | |
| 6 | Francisco Rodriguez | 87 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 12 | |
| 7 | Andrew Bailey | 127 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 7 | |
| 8 | Heath Bell | 103 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 13 | |
| 9 | Jose Valverde | 137 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 2 | |
| 10 | Huston Street | 149 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 14 | |
| 11 | Brian Wilson | 143 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | |
| 12 | Francisco Cordero | 108 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 3 | |
| 13 | Billy Wagner | 150 | 13 | 6 | 10 | 15 | |
| 14 | Rafael Soriano | 157 | 14 | 1 | 11 | 7 | |
| 15 | Brian Fuentes | 117 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 12 | |
| 16 | Trevor Hoffman | 170 | 15 | 2 | 12 | 5 | |
| 17 | Frank Francisco | 204 | 17 | 12 | 14 | 9 | |
| 18 | Mike Gonzalez | 206 | 18 | 2 | 14 | 11 | |
| 19 | Chad Qualls | 228 | 19 | 12 | 16 | 3 | |
| 20 | David Aardsma | 156 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 6 | |
| 21 | Carlos Marmol | 143 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | |
| 22 | Bobby Jenks | 163 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 13 | |
| 23 | Ryan Franklin | 153 | 13 | 9 | 11 | 3 | |
| 24 | Kerry Wood | 227 | 19 | 11 | 16 | 2 | |
| 25 | Brad Lidge | 229 | 20 | 1 | 16 | 4 | |
| 26 | Matt Capps | 234 | 20 | 6 | 16 | 9 | |
| 27 | Leo Nunez | 242 | 21 | 2 | 17 | 2 | |
| 28 | Jason Frasor | 264 | 22 | 12 | 18 | 9 | |
| 29 | Octavio Dotel | 271 | 23 | 7 | 19 | 1 | |
| 30 | Brandon Lyon | 261 | 22 | 9 | 18 | 6 | |
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