by Todd Lammi
Today we are going to look at the one person with the most upside and downside per round based on a 15 team fantasy baseball draft with average draft positions provided by Mock Draft Central.
Round 1:
Upside - Ryan Braun (7) – Has a great chance of hitting over 40 home run this season, with 100+ runs and rbi’s. Add in 15-20 steals and the potential for a .300 average and Braun represents the best upside in the first round, based on his draft slot and the chance to exceed his 2008 numbers.
Downside - Ian Kinsler (9) – I like Kinsler, but not at number nine. He has never surpassed 518 at bats in the last three years and with the possibility to grab Pedroia / Phillips/ Roberts in the 2nd round or even Alexei Ramirez in the third round, Kinsler is going to leave some owners crushed if they are picking him this high.
Round 2:
Upside - Alfonso Soriano (24) – it was just two years ago he was 40-40 and that was for the lowly Washington Nationals. Prorate his numbers over a whole season last year and Soriano would have been at 44 home runs and 28 stolen bases. If you are slotted in the in the 7-9 spots of your draft order, count your lucky stars if Soriano falls to you in the second round.
Downside – Dustin Pedroia (23) There is some regression coming this year, there is little chance Pedroia duplicates his stats from last season. Take away 10 steals from Pedroia and a couple of home runs and you are looking at Kelly Johnson plus 30 points in batting average. Not a second round pick in my eyes with the other players available on the board.
Round 3:
Upside - Matt Kemp (38) The explosion is coming, it might be a year away, but soon we will be seeing regular seasons of 25 home runs and 35+ steals from Mr. Kemp. To get those steals in the middle of the third round, plus close to a .300 average is a bargain.
Downside - Kevin Youkilis (37) Not sure that I believe he is a 30 home run hitter after hitting only 16 in 2007. Even if I knew for certain he was going to hit 30, I would rather wait until round 4 or 5 and grab Chris Davis or Joey Votto. There is better value available in the third round.
Round 4:
Upside - Alexei Ramirez (48) – his numbers are not that far off from the three second baseman that are going ahead of him in the draft, discounting Chase Utley. Ramirez will have the added bonus after three weeks into the regular season of being eligible at SS for those leagues with a 20 game rule.
Downside - Joe Mauer (53) – Mauer is coming off of kidney surgery in January and recently has been bothered by a sore back. There are four very good options at catcher available after Mauer, who could potentially start the season the disabled list. I would take the following; Soto (67), Victor Martinez (78), Doumit (120) and Ianetta (133), all ahead of Mauer.
Round 5:
Upside - Chris Davis (65) – Has a chance to be this year’s Ryan Howard with a higher batting average. A nice upside pick with the chance to hit 35-40 home runs and bat over .290.
Downside - Magglio Ordonez (64) – Ordonez had a solid year last year, and is always around the .300 mark but with zero speed and with only 20-25 home run, spending a fifth round pick on him is not a good investment. There are lots of outfielders you can select later on in the draft that will put up the same or better numbers than Ordonez will in 2008.
