Archive for July, 2010

2010 MLB Trade Deadline – Rising / Falling

With the 2010 MLB trade deadline now over, here is a look at which players are now rising or falling in terms of fantasy baseball value as a result of the moves.

Rising:

Brett Wallace - the trade of Wallace to Houston coupled with the expected trade of Lance Berkman to the New York Yankees should give Wallace value for the remainder of the season at first base. Wallace was hitting .301 in Triple-A with 18 home runs and 61 RBI in 385 at bats.

Daniel Hudson - while most scouts view him as a number four or five starter with decent stuff but no real one dominant pitch, the move to the National League can only help his numbers and strikeout rate going forward.

Adam Kennedy – not a sexy name for fantasy purposes, but the trade of Christian Guzman to Texas gives Kennedy a full-time grip on second base going forward. With 12 stolen bases on the season, he is a good target for the remainder of the year in your fantasy baseball team is looking for steals.

Thomas Diamond – Diamond gets first shot to replace Ted Lilly in the Chicago Cubs rotation. He was 5-4 with a 3.16 ERA in Triple-A with 104 strikeouts in 108 1/3 innings. It has been a slow climb up the minor league ladder for Diamond who was a first round pick back in 2004. Control problems had him repeating the same level for almost three years with much of 2009 spend in relief. He moved back to the starting rotation this season and his control is better than in years past but it is still not what you would like to see from a pitcher coming to the major leagues, with 46 walks on the season.

Chris Perez – the trade of Kerry Wood to the New York Yankees puts Perez pack into the closer role in Cleveland where he should remain for the rest of the season.

Chris Snyder – Snyder takes over as catcher in Pittsburgh after being traded from Arizona. It looks like Ryan Doumit will rotate between first base and the outfield when he returns from the disabled list.

John Jay – the three-team trade that sent Ryan Ludwick to San Diego moves Jay into a full-time role in the outfield. Jay holds a .301 career average in the minor leagues, with a season high of 12 home runs in 2008 and 20 stolen bases in 2009.

Falling:

Jon Rauch – Rauch looks to be the odd man out in the closer role in Minnesota with the addition of Matt Capps. Rauch has a 3.05 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP with a .283 batting average against and a 84% save percentage on the season. He has struggled in July with a 5.40 ERA and a 2.28 WHIP putting him second in line for saves in the Twins bullpen.

Everth Cabrera – the trade of Miguel Tejada puts Cabrera on the bench from time to time with Tejada at shortstop and Jerry Hairston Jr. moving over to second base with David Eckstein out of action. He could see time against left-handed pitching with Tejada moving to third and Chase Headley sitting since he owns a .194 average against southpaws.

Scott Podsednik – the trade to the Los Angeles Dodgers gives him playing time for now with Manny Ramirez on the disabled list, but in two weeks when Manny returns, Podsednik likely falls into a fourth outfielder role filling in as situations arise.

Jorge Cantu – the trade to the Texas Rangers will cut into Cantu’s value as it looks like he will serve as a platoon role at first base with Mitch Moreland for the time being against left-handed pitching.

Edwin Jackson – the trade to the American League will likely raise his ERA and WHIP ratio unless he is flipped back to the National League in a trade tomorrow.

Octavio Dotel / Kerry Wood - Dotel and Wood were both traded to teams where they go from being a closer to a set up man.

2010 Waiver Wire – Week 18

Here is a look at some potential players to target in your fantasy baseball league that might be out there on the waiver wire for week 18.

American League:

OF – Travis Snider:  Remember him?  Snider has not played since mid-May but is expected to be activated this weekend and is going to help out at both corner outfield spots when he returns.  Snider is hitting .316 with four home runs and 16 RBI over his last 10 rehab games.

2B – Alexi Casilla – the injury to Orlando Hudson makes Casilla relevant for a few weeks in Minnesota. If your team is searching for stolen bases, he might be able to swipe a couple for you.

SP – Zach Britton:  Britton was going to be recalled from Triple-A to start Saturday but as of Thursday morning those plans have changed.  Britton has made five starts since being promoted to Triple-A with a 2.28 ERA.  The Orioles will likely call up the youngster prior to September to make a spot start.  He’s a guy I want on my bench until he is recalled.  One of the Oriole rookie pitchers has to work out.

OF – Mitch Moreland:  called up by the Texas Rangers with Ian Kinsler going on the disabled list, Moreland will see time at first base and in the outfield. Moreland was hitting .289 in Triple-A with 12 home runs and 65 RBI in 353 at bats with two stolen bases.

3B – Josh Bell: the trade of Miguel Tejada to San Diego opens the door for Bell to get extended playing time the rest of the season. Bell was hitting .278 in Triple-A for the season with 13 home runs and 50 RBI before being recalled Thursday. With a 23 walk to 78 strikeout ratio, it is best to temper expectation on his performance.

National League:

OF – Logan Morrison:  Due to another freak post game celebration, Chris Coghlan will be out for at least 6 weeks.  Morrison was hitting .307 with six homer runs and 45 RBI before being recalled and will be a platoon partner with Emilio Bonifacio for the Marlins.

RP – Joel Hanrahan:  If the Pirates do trade Octavio Dotel, Hanrahan would split closer duties with Evan Meek.  Hanrahan does have more experience in the closer role as he closed games when he was with the Nationals in 2008 and 2009.  In 44 2/3 innings of work this year, Hanrahan has 60 K’s vs. 14 walks with a 3.42 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.

Mixed Leagues:

OF – Luke Scott:  Since returning from the disabled list ten days ago, Scott has hit over .400 with five home runs and 11 RBI.  With 9 games played at first base this season, he might have additional roster eligibility depending on your league rules.

The Minor League Report – Week 17

Here is a look at the latest news and notes from around the minor leagues from a fantasy baseball perspective in the week 17 minor league report.

The celebration injury suffered by Chris Coghlan in Florida opened the door for top prospect Logan Morrison to be recalled from Triple-A. Morrison, a first basemen who had recently begun working in the outfield, got the start in left field while hitting second in the order. He went 1-for-4 in the game with a strikeout. Morrison was hitting .307 in AAA with six home runs and 45 RBI in 238 at bats.

I had a chance to catch Jeff Samardzija’s start for the Iowa Cubs on Monday night against the Round Rock Express. He worked six innings, allowing two hits while walking five and striking out seven. His fastball sat around 90 miles per hour for most of the game at times touching 92. He showed a nice change up at 84 that he recorded several strikeouts with. Even though he is starting, he worked exclusively from the stretch the entire game as if runners were on base. He is going to need to improve his command in order to make it back to the major leagues. In 64 2/3 innings, he has walked 43 batters on the season while holding hitters to a .178 average.

The Atlanta Braves continue churning out arms in the minor leagues as Randall Delgado was promoted to Double-A. Delgado had a 2.76 ERA with 120 strikeouts in 117 1/3 innings before his promotion. The 20-year-old threw five innings allowing two runs with five strikeouts in his first start after being elevated a level. He has struck out more than a batter per innings in every season so far in the minor leagues.  Julio Teheran will be joining Delgado at Double-A, marking his third stop this year in the minor leagues. Between two levels so far Teheran has a 2.28 ERA with 121 strikeouts in 102 2/3 innings while holding hitters to a .210 batting average. Mike Minor has been better for the Braves since his promotion to Triple-A, posting a 2.55 ERA with 27 strikeouts in 24 2/3 innings. For the season, he now has 136 strikeouts in 111 2/3 innings and a 3.71 ERA.

One of the names in the news recently has been Jake McGee in Tampa Bay as a possible trade chip they may use to acquire some deadline help. McGee has a 3.99 ERA in Double-A with 91 strikeouts in 76 2/3 innings. He missed the majority of last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery back in 2008.

Zachary Britton is rumored to be getting a call up to get a start for the Baltimore Orioles this week. Britton has a 2.28 ERA in five starts in Triple-A with 17 strikeouts on 27 2/3 innings. Overall on the year, his ERA is 2.43 while holding hitters to a .236 average with four home runs allowed in 114 2/3 innings.

The Closer Report – Week 17

Here is a look at the fantasy baseball closer report for week 17. It contains all of the most recent closer news, plus the current closers and the current handcuffs.

Juan Gutierrez seems to have taken over the closer role in Arizona almost by default with the failures of other men before him. Although he has not been officially named as the stopper, he has gotten two saves in July. His overall numbers have not been very impressive thanks to a severe case of gopheritis this year with 13 home runs allowed in 36 1/3 innings.

Bobby Jenks has been removed from the closer role in Chicago but manager Ozzie Guillen is saying he could be back in the role soon with another decent outing. He has managed to blow only two saves on the season, despite a 4.95 ERA with a 1.57 WHIP. J.J. Putz has been strong in the bullpen with a 1.46 ERA and a .78 WHIP and could get the next crack at a save chance.

Jonathan Broxton has not picked up a save since July 8th and missed out on several opportunities last week after blowing a save and racking up a high pitch count. You might be able to talk up that fact to another owner in your fantasy baseball league and see if you can pick up Broxton on the cheap in a trade.

With the trade deadline looming this Saturday, there could be several more shake ups in closer roles for next week. The typical names that I have been mentioning all season apply here with the possibility that Matt Capps (WAS), Octavio Dotel (PIT), David Aardsma (SEA) and Kevin Gregg (TOR) could be dealt. If you are in need of saves, hopefully you have been following the handcuff chart below and already have someone in place in case a deal does happen.

The only somewhat surprising newsworthy event has been talk that Joel Hanrahan would take over as full-time closer or share the role with Evan Meek if Octavio Dotel is moved in Pittsburgh. Hanrahan has a 3.59 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP and is holding hitters to a .192 batting average. His career save percentage does not seem to foretell long term success with 14 saves converted in 25 opportunities.

Team Closer Handcuff
BAL Alfredo Simon Mike Gonzalez
BOS Jonathan Papelbon Daniel Bard
CHW J.J. Putz Matt Thornton, Bobby Jenks
CLE Chris Perez Kerry Wood (DL)
DET Jose Valverde Eddie Bonine
KC Joakim Soria Kyle Farnsworth
LAA Brian Fuentes Fernando Rodney
MIN Jon Rauch Matt Guerrier
NYY Mariano Rivera Joba Chamberlain
OAK Andrew Bailey Brad Ziegler
SEA David Aardsma Brandon League
TB Rafael Soriano Grant Balfour
TEX Neftali Feliz Frank Francisco
TOR Kevin Gregg Jason Frasor
AZ Juan Gutierrez Aaron Heilman
ATL Billy Wagner Takashi Saito
CHI Carlos Marmol Andrew Cashner
CIN Francisco Cordero Arthur Rhodes
COL Huston Street Manny Corpas
FLA Leo Nunez Clay Hensley
HOU Matt Lindstrom Brandon Lyon
LAD Jonathan Broxton Ramon Tronosco
MIL John Axford Trevor Hoffman
NYM Francisco Rodriguez Pedro Feliciano
PHI Brad Lidge Jose Contreras
PIT Octavio Dotel Evan Meek, Joel Hanrahan
STL Ryan Franklin Jason Motte
SD Heath Bell Luke Gregerson
SF Brian Wilson Sergio Romo
WAS Matt Capps Tyler Clippard, Drew Storen

2010 Lineup Planner – Week 17

Here is a look at the latest news and notes from around the diamond to help you set your fantasy baseball lineup for week 17.

American League:

It looks like the Texas Rangers have been scouting corner infielders in the likes of Jorge Cantu from Florida and Ty Wigginton from Baltimore as well as Mike Lowell in Boston. Reading the tea leaves, that could spell trouble for Chris Davis at first base. Since taking over after Justin Smoak was traded, Davis is hitting .200 with no home runs and one RBI in 45 at bats. His strikeout rate is down since coming back to the major leagues but it looks like Texas may not wait for his swing to come around.

Fantasy baseball owners are breathing a sigh of relief after Alex Rodriguez left the game Sunday after being hit on his wrist with a pitch. It looks like he escaped without any pain or broken bones so he is safe to leave active for next week.

Victor Martinez is expected to come off the disabled list for the Boston Red Sox and get the start at catcher at Monday. Matt Wieters came off the disabled list for the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday and hit seventh in the lineup going 1-for-4.

The Detroit Tigers lineup is in flux right now with a string of injuries over the last week. After losing Brandon Inge, the Tigers also saw Carlos Guillen and Magglio Ordonez go on the disabled list. Ordonez is expected to miss almost two months with a broken ankle. It looks like recent call up Jeff Larish could see the majority of time at designated hitter with Ryan Raburn, Scott Sizemore, Ramon Santiago and Don Kelly rotating between second and third base. Larish was hitting .275 in Triple-A with 15 home runs and 55 RBI in 298 at bats.

Ozzie Guillen continues to ride Omar Vizquel at third base for the Chicago White Sox and you can too while he is hot, especially since he can qualify at up to three positions in a line up depending on your leagues requirements for games played at a position. Vizquel is hitting .333 in July in 48 at bats with two stolen bases.

Wilson Betemit gets a shot at the third base job full-time in Kansas City with the trade of Alberto Callaspo to the Los Angeles Angels. Betemit is definitely a play in AL only leagues although his batting average is off to a fluky .382 in 68 at bats this year. If you are a team at the bottom of a dynasty or keeper league, this is the type of guy you pick up to package with another player to a contending team for a better keeper for next season.

Orlando Hudson is headed back to the disabled list for the Minnesota Twins a strained oblique. AL only leagues in search of infield help could pick up Alexi Casilla while Hudson is out of action.

Brett Anderson is expected to return to the Oakland A’s  rotation on Friday against the Chicago White Sox. In his last two starts in Triple-A, he threw 10 1/3 innings, allowing 13 hits, four runs and 11 strikeouts.

The Cleveland Indians have tabbed 25-year-old Josh Tomlin to get the start on Tuesday against the New York Yankees. Tomlin was 8-4 in Triple-A with a 2.68 ERA and 80 strikeouts in 107 1/3 innings.

National League:

J.A Happ returned to the rotation for the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday, allowing three runs in five innings with eight baserunners and four strikeouts. His numbers were less than stellar in Triple-A so if you have better options for your rotation, I would leave Happ benched for now.

For those that still don’t believe that the place in the batting order has little to no impact on fantasy stats, check out Starlin Castro’s numbers for the Chicago Cubs since being moved to second in the batting order. In 73 at bats, he is hitting .329 with 10 runs scored, two home runs, nine RBI and three stolen bases, numbers that give you a chance to play him now in mixes league formats.

The Colorado Rockies lineup is going to cancel out a lot of players effectiveness this week with the team scheduled to face three left-handed starting pitchers. That means Seth Smith platoons with Ryan Spillborghs and Jason Giambi platoons with Brad Eldred at first base. In addition, the first basemen also have to deal with Brad Hawpe working into the mix with Dexter Fowler seeing more playing time in the outfield.

Troy Tulowitzki is supposed to return to the Colorado Rockies on Tuesday although he may receive a day off here or there more than usual in the early going. His return will move Clint Barmes back to second base and puts Jonathan Herrera back to the bench.

The trade of Dan Haren to the Los Angeles Angels knocks him out as a two-start pitcher in week 17 and leaves an open slot in Arizona’s rotation for Tuesday.

2010 Two Start Pitchers – Week 17

Here is a complete look at the fantasy baseball two-start pitchers for week 17. Obviously the top tier pitchers are going to be left in your line up, but here is a look at some of the more border line pitchers for mixed league starts and who they face in those starts.

Two-start pitchers week 17: remember again that the list below is more focused on mixed leagues since in AL or NL only leagues in most cases you do not have the option to rotate too many starting pitchers with the smaller player pool. The pitchers below are listed in alphabetical order by team name per category.

American League:

Start them:

Clay Buchholz (BOS) ~ @LAA (Pineiro), DET (Verlander)
John Danks (CHW) ~ SEA (Hernandez), OAK (Anderson)
Gavin Floyd (CHW) ~ SEA (Rowland-Smith), OAK (Braden)
Justin Verlander (DET) ~ @TB (Shields), @BOS (Buchholz)
Zack Greinke (KC) ~ MIN (Liriano), BAL (Bergesen)
Francisco Liriano (MIN) ~ @KC (Greinke), SEA (Rowland-Smith)
CC Sabathia (NYY) ~ @CLE (TBD), @TB (Shields)
Felix Hernandez (SEA) ~ @CWS (Danks), @MIN (Slowey)
Colby Lewis (TEX) ~ OAK (Braden), @LAA (Pineiro)

Roll the Dice:

Max Scherzer (DET) ~ @TB (Garza), @BOS (Matsuzaka)
Joel Pineiro (LAA) ~ BOS (Buchholz), TEX (Lewis)
Javier Vazquez (NYY) ~ @CLE (Westbrook), @TB (Garza)
Matt Garza (TB) ~ DET (Scherzer), NYY (Vazquez)
James Shields (TB) ~ DET (Verlander), NYY (Sabathia)
Brandon Morrow (TOR) ~ BAL (Bergesen), CLE (Westbrook)

Although he has two tough match ups, Scherzer is 5-1 in his last seven starts and has a 2.00 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP through four starts in July. Pineiro had won seven starts without loss before getting hit hard in last start against the New York Yankees. He allowed two runs in six innings against Boston earlier this year and three runs in six innings versus Texas. Vazquez has had an inflated ERA thanks to 17 home runs through 100 innings this year compared to only 20 allowed on 219 1/3 innings in Atlanta last season. He had a 3.23 ERA with a .97 WHIP in June and is 2.84, 1.00 so far in July. Shields has been sliding after starting the season with two goods months. His ERA was 7.67 in June and is 5.47 so far in July. In three starts against New York this year, he has a 3.86 ERA and has yet to face Detroit this season. Morrow has regressed in July after dominating in June. In July he has a 5.82 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP. If you own him, I think there has to be concern for him the rest of the season. He is at 107 innings on the year which is already close to his career high of 124 2/3 between Triple-A and the major leagues last season.

Sit Them:

Kevin Millwood (BAL) ~ @TOR (Romero), @KC (Chen)
Brad Bergesen (BAL) ~ @TOR (Morrow), @KC (Greinke)
Jake Westbrook (CLE) ~ NYY (Vazquez), @TOR (Morrow)
Bruce Chen (KC) ~ MIN (Pavano), BAL (Millwood)
Dallas Braden (OAK) ~ @TEX (Lewis), @CWS (Floyd)
Ryan Rowland-Smith (SEA) ~ @CWS (Floyd), @MIN (Liriano)

Braden has not won since his perfect game back on May 9th and has allowed 20 hits in his last 10 2/3 innings. Rowland-Smith’s last win came back on June 20th. Since that time, he has allowed five runs in his three of his last seven starts. Chen was decent in June but has since come back down to earth in July with a 5.24 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP ratio. Westbrook has gone six innings in four of his last five starts with a 2-2 record during that time. He has a 3.72 ERA against Toronto in his two starts this season. One thing to keep in mind is that he has been mentioned in trade rumors and with the deadline next Saturday, there is a slight chance he could miss the second start of the week.

National League:

Start them:

Ryan Dempster (CHC) ~ @HOU (Wright), @COL (De La Rosa)
Josh Johnson (FLA) ~ @SF (Cain), @SD (Garland)
Jon Niese (NYM) ~ STL (Garcia), ATL (Haren)
Cole Hamels (PHI) ~ ARI (Haren), @WAS (Strasburg)
Barry Zito (SF) ~ FLA (Nolasco), LAD (Kershaw)
Matt Cain (SF) ~ FLA (Johnson), LAD (Billingsley)
Jaime Garcia (STL) ~ @NYM (Niese), PIT (Duke)
Stephen Strasburg (WAS) ~ ATL (Hanson), PHI (Hamels)

Roll the Dice:

Dan Haren (AZ) ~ @PHI (Hamels), @NYM (Niese)
Tommy Hanson (ATL) ~ @WAS (Strasburg), @CIN (Arroyo)
Bronson Arroyo (CIN) ~ @MIL (Wolf), ATL (Hanson)
Jason Hammel (COL) ~ @PHI (Blanton), CHC (Silva)
Ricky Nolasco (FLA) ~ @SF (Zito), @SD (LeBlanc)
Chad Billingsley (LAD) ~ @SD (Garland), @SF (Cain)
Jon Garland (SD) ~ LAD (Billingsley), FLA (Johnson)

Haren is a risky play this week with the possibility of being traded and missing a start in addition to him not winning a start since June 12th. He is still racking up strikeouts, but his batting average against is 61 points higher than it was last season. Throw out Hanson’s two interleague bombings and he has not given up more than two runs in a start since back on May 20th when he gave up eight against Cincinnati. Hammel had not lost since May 21st before dropping his last two decisions although he was not too bad in them. He has yet to face either team he pitches against next week this season. Nolasco has won five of his last six starts with four runs allowed or less in all of them. He owns a 3.29 ERA in July with a 1.10 WHIP.  Garland’s ERA has risen a run and a half since May 30th when he had a 2.15 ERA. He has a tough second start against Josh Johnson and Florida.

Sit Them:

Jorge De La Rosa (COL) ~ PIT (Duke), CHC (Dempster)
Wesley Wright (HOU) ~ CHC (Dempster), MIL (Wolf)
Randy Wolf (MIL) ~ CIN (Arroyo), @HOU (Wright)
Joe Blanton (PHI) ~ COL (Hammel), @WAS (Lannan)
Zach Duke (PIT) ~ @COL (De La Rosa), @STL (Garcia)

Wolf has had an ERA over 5.50 each of the last three months and a WHIP over 1.52. I don’t need to remind you how brutal his last start was. De La Rosa has been bad in two of his three starts since returning to action with his last start much better, allowing two runs in six innings against Florida. Duke had lost five straight starts before breaking into the win column in his last game against Milwaukee. Blanton has allowed exactly three runs in five of his last seven starts while surrendering five runs each in the other two.

2010 Waiver Wire – Week 17

Here is a look at some potential players to target in your fantasy baseball league that might be out there on the waiver wire for week 17.

American League only:

2B – Scott Sizemore – I’m sure many AL and mixed league owners drafted this guy hoping to make a splash with him.  After hitting just .206 to begin the year, the Tigers sent him back down to Triple-A.  He’s been recalled to help out at second and possible third base while Brandon Inge is out with a broken finger.  In 167 at-bats in Triple-A, Sizemore was hitting .329 with 19 RBI and 32 runs scored.  He deserves a bench spot on your AL only team if he’s available if he is still available on waivers. He got the start on Thursday and went 0-for4 while hitting sixth at third base.

RP / SP – Brian Duensing – Duensing is going to take the rotation spot for Nick Blackburn in Minnesota who has just been dreadful this season. Duensing has only pitched in relief this season but made nine starts last season for the Twins.  In 2010, he has pitched 43 innings with a 3-1 record and a 1.67 ERA.  He pitched four innings in his last relief appearance to stretch him out.  I believe he may only go five to maybe six innings in his first start tomorrow against Baltimore.  His next start after that is against Kansas City.

National League only:

C – Erik Kratz – This is a true feel good story. If you were watching the Triple A All-Star game like I was last week, you saw that he was pulled from the game because he was being called up by the Pittsburgh Pirates.  What make this such a great story is that he is a 30-year-old rookie. He was hitting .296 with 9 HR and 37 RBI before being recalled and the plan was for him to platoon with Ryan Doumit. With Doumit just recently going on the disabled list, Kratz should see the majority of action over the next few weeks.

OF – John Jay – Jay is currently in a platoon situation with Randy Winn while Ryan Ludwick is on the disabled list but that may change shortly since he’s hitting .378 with three home runs, 11 RBI and 18 runs scored over 82 AB
this season. He could see a boost in playing time if he is moved in a trade as well as St. Louis does not have really any top level minor league prospects at this point.

12/15 Team Mixed League:

OF – Matt Diaz – Disregard his overall numbers and just pay attention to what he has been doing since he has come back from injury. He is currently hitting .400 in the month of July with four home runs and 11 RBI in 40 at bats. He might not get the start every game, but he is a good guy to grab if you need some help with your team batting average.

2010 Strategy – Free Agent Bidding on a Budget

One of the challenges in playing fantasy baseball is handling the waiver wire and the process becomes even more complex if you play in a league that uses dollar amounts instead of some order of the standings or another method. With that in mind, I wanted to take a look at some of the numbers from my main event NFBC team through this past weekend and see if there is some conclusions that can be drawn.

The league is a 15 team mixed league format with a $1,000 FAAB budget per team. Minor league players cannot be bid on until they are called up unless they had been drafted and were later dropped during the season.

So far there have been a total of 362 free agent pick ups for a total spent of $11,276. Of those pickups, only 181 had another owner bidding on the player or exactly 50%. If we look at only the 181 players that had multiple bids, the highest bid totaled $9,533 while the second highest bid was $5,236.

It is no surprise that the highest bid players have been rookies coming up to the major leagues in the form of Mike Stanton, Starlin Castro, Dexter Fowler, Jose Tabata and Jhoulys Chacin. Searching for saves also takes a big hunk out of a teams budget as Alfredo Simon ($204), Manuel Corpas ($179), Jim Johnson ($103), Evan Meek ($99) and Tyler Clippard ($85) led the way in relief pitcher spending.

It is interesting to note that of the 362 players that have been picked up, 83 of them were picked up multiples times, or 23% of the moves have been recycled players. Usually you would attribute that to fringe pitchers being added and dropped to maximize two starts but there have been quite a few hitters that have fallen into the category as well. Leading the way has been Jamie Moyer who has been added five different times already this season. Also high on the claim list has been Daniel Bard (4), Jason Motte (4), Michael Saunders (3), Livan Hernandez (3), Tom Gorzelanny (3) and Yuniesky Betancourt (3).

If your league uses a nine man pitching staff in a mixed league format, the tendency has been to go with either two or three closers. I think with the number of closers that lose their job each year due to performance or injury, plus the amount of your free agent budget it costs trying to find a new one, the ideal option is to grab three instead of two at the draft or auction. This way even if one loses their job, you still have two to fall back on.

The statistics above obviously show there is a lot of room for improvement considering only 50% of the players had another owner bidding on them. Technically all of the players purchased could have been bought for $1 instead of what they went for. The more you are able to close that gap in understanding the other owners in the in the league in terms of roster needs, spending patterns and money available, the more money you will free up to purchase extra players because of a tighter bidding pattern.

It you look at the other teams in the league and review their bidding history, most often you will notice a pattern when they bid on certain types of players or positions. This will help you when it comes time to placing the bid of not going too much over what the second place bidder does. Some teams will never go over $50 on a bid, other teams will bid $1 for the majority of the players and take whatever they can get while saving up money to make a splash later in the season. Either way, there is data there to help you improve your free agent bidding if you take the time to examine it.

When it comes to losing lower dollar amount bids, most often it is because the owner bid $1 and the winning bid was either $3 or $5. Out of the 142 winning single digit bids, in none of the cases was the second highest bid either 6,7, or 8. It looks like owners have $5 as the threshold for lower level bids in the majority of cases, otherwise they are bumping the bid to double figures.

Looking at all the double digit winning bids, what is the last digit that owners prefer to use? Out of 220 double digit bids, numbers ending in nine (18%) were most popular, followed by the number five (16%) and the number one (14%).

The Minor League Report – Week 16

Here is a look at the latest news and notes from around the minor leagues from a fantasy baseball perspective in the week 16 minor league report.

The Milwaukee Brewers recalled center field prospect Lorenzo Cain from the minor leagues last week, but in typical line up mismanagement that has plagued the team the last few years, for some reason they still want to run out Carlos Gomez and Jim Edmonds to center field. It makes one wonder why Cain was promoted in the first place. Cain has received only three at bats after hitting .326 between two stops in the minor leagues this year with three home runs and 25 stolen bases.

Third basemen Mike Moustakas was promoted to Triple-A by the Kansas City Royals after hitting .347 in Double-A with 21 home runs and 76 RBI. Assuming he fares well at the new level, he should head into the 2011 season as the favorite to start at third base.

The Royals also prom0ted first basemen Eric Hosmer to Double-A. Hosmer is off to a good start with three home runs in his first five games after hitting .354 with seven home runs and driving in 51 runs in A ball. The third overall pick from the 2008 draft, Hosmer has exhibited great plate discipline so far in his career with 46 walks against only 40 strikeouts this season.

Just like the Chicago White Sox did with Daniel Hudson last season, the team is wasting little time in getting Chris Sale headed to the major leagues. Sale was the 13th overall pick just last month and has already been promoted to Triple-A. Between two levels in relief, he has a 2.70 ERA in 6 2/3 innings with 10 strikeouts. Right now the tall lefty has a fastball – change up repertoire which will serve him well in the bullpen.

If the Chicago Cubs do move Ted Lilly in a trade, they could dip down into Triple-A for help from Jay Jackson. Jackson is 6-6 on the season with a 3.55 ERA and 74 strikeouts in 101 1/3 innings. Turning 23 in October, he is someone to keep an eye on in NL only keeper leagues.

American League only owners looking for bullpen help should take a look at Jonathan Albaladejo in New York. He was recalled due to the injury suffered by Andy Pettite and will serve in a set up role after serving as a closer in Triple-A. Albaladejo had 31 saves with a 0.96 ERA and 61 strikeouts in 46 2/3 innings in the minor leagues this season.

Speaking of the Yankees, Jesus Montero is finally starting to show a little life at the plate in Triple-A. After starting the season slowly, Montero has picked up the pace over his last ten games, hitting .441 with four home runs and nine RBI. He is now hitting .271 on the season with 10 home runs and 42 RBI.

The Closer Report – Week 16

Here is a look at the fantasy baseball closer report for week 16. It contains all of the most recent closer news, plus the current closers and the current handcuffs.

Kevin Gregg may have picked a bad time to struggle for the Toronto Blue Jays but it may help him keep his job as closer by reducing his trade value. Gregg almost blew a save on Saturday but was pulled after allowing three walks, but did blow the save on Monday night, allowing two runs in 2/3 of an innings. He has converted 21 of 25 saves on the season, but outside of a stellar April, his numbers were bad in May (5.11 ERA, 1.95 WHIP) and worse in June (8.10, 2.25).

It presents an interesting dilemma in Toronto where Gregg, Jason Frasor (4.54 ERA, 1.60 WHIP) and Scott Downs (2.52 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) are all in the last year of their contract and have been mentioned in trade rumors. If Gregg is moved, Frasor or Downs would figure to get first shot as closer although neither one has a good historical save percentage. Shawn Camp who picked up the save after replacing Gregg could figure into the mix as well with a 2.44 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, although at 34-years-old is not a long term solution.

Kerry Wood going to the disabled list in Cleveland opens up the door for Chris Perez to take over ninth inning duties. After a rough start in April, Perez has been a little better each month of the season and posted a 2.13 ERA with a 0.71 WHIP in June. His walk rate still poses a problem as he has allowed seven free passes in 5 1/3 innings in July, but if you are looking for saves, he might be out on the waiver wire in your league. Wood is likely to be traded at some point when he returns so Perez should have some value as closer for the remainder of the season.

Mike Gonzalez will be activated from the disabled list this week by the Baltimore Orioles and is expected to eventually reclaim the role as closer from Alfredo Simon. He had two Triple-A outings, working a scoreless inning in one of them and allowing two runs in 2/3 of an inning in the other. Simon was 7-for-8 in save chances between June and so far in July.

Fantasy baseball owners are going to have a tough decision next year where to rate Carlos Marmol of the Chicago Cubs. Marmol currently leads all closers in strikeouts by more than 23 and his batting average against of .157 is 4th best behind Billy Wagner, Mariano Rivera and Jose Valverde. The downfall for Marmol continues to be his walks, with 33 through 43 1/3 innings. He walked ten in May and June and has walked eight this month including five in his last game. Unless he is able to get his control corrected, it is going to keep him being in the upper tier of closers next season.

Team Closer Handcuff
BAL Alfredo Simon Mike Gonzalez
BOS Jonathan Papelbon Daniel Bard
CHW Bobby Jenks Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz
CLE Chris Perez Kerry Wood (DL)
DET Jose Valverde Eddie Bonine
KC Joakim Soria Kyle Farnsworth
LAA Brian Fuentes Fernando Rodney
MIN Jon Rauch Matt Guerrier
NYY Mariano Rivera Joba Chamberlain
OAK Andrew Bailey Brad Ziegler
SEA David Aardsma Brandon League
TB Rafael Soriano Grant Balfour
TEX Neftali Feliz Frank Francisco
TOR Kevin Gregg Jason Frasor
AZ Aaron Heilman Chad Qualls
ATL Billy Wagner Takashi Saito
CHI Carlos Marmol Andrew Cashner
CIN Francisco Cordero Arthur Rhodes
COL Huston Street Manny Corpas
FLA Leo Nunez Clay Hensley
HOU Matt Lindstrom Brandon Lyon
LAD Jonathan Broxton Ramon Tronosco
MIL John Axford Trevor Hoffman
NYM Francisco Rodriguez Pedro Feliciano
PHI Brad Lidge Jose Contreras
PIT Octavio Dotel Evan Meek
STL Ryan Franklin Jason Motte
SD Heath Bell Luke Gregerson
SF Brian Wilson Sergio Romo
WAS Matt Capps Tyler Clippard, Drew Storen

2010 Two Start Pitchers – Week 16

Here is a complete look at the fantasy baseball two-start pitchers for week 16. Obviously the top tier pitchers are going to be left in your line up, but here is a look at some of the more border line pitchers for mixed league starts and who they face in those starts.

Two-start pitchers week 16: remember again that the list below is more focused on mixed leagues since in AL or NL only leagues in most cases you do not have the option to rotate too many starting pitchers with the smaller player pool. The pitchers below are listed in alphabetical order by team name per category.

American League:

Start them:

Phil Hughes (NYY) ~ LAA (Kazmir), KC (Lewrew)
Tommy Hunter (TEX) ~ @DET (Galarraga), LAA (Kazmir)
Brett Cecil (TOR) ~ @KC (Davies), @DET (Bonderman)

Interesting that Cecil got hammered in his three interleague starts, allowing 16 runs in 15 2/3 innings but otherwise has been solid against American League teams this year.

Roll the Dice:

Jake Arrieta (BAL) ~ TB (Garza), MIN (Slowey)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (BOS) ~ @OAK (Sheets), @SEA (Pauley)
Dan Hudson (CHW) ~ @SEA (Pauley), @OAK (Sheets)
Jeremy Bonderman (DET) ~ TEX (Feldman), TOR (Cecil)
Scott Baker (MIN) ~ CLE (Laffey), @BAL (Tillman)
Doug Fister (SEA) ~ CWS (Danks), BOS (Wakefield)
Matt Garza (TB) ~ @BAL (Arrieta), CLE (Masterson)
Ben Sheets (OAK) ~ BOS (Matsuzaka), CWS (Hudson)

Arrieta had two good starts back-to-back allowing one run in each of them in 6 1/3 innings. His WHIP ratio of 1.54 poses a problem to your team’s numbers. If you owned Hudson or just recently picked him up, this is the week to start him against two of the lesser offenses in the American League. Baker has allowed five or more runs in four of his last six starts so there is some risk to him. Hard to figure that the two teams that have hit Bonderman well this year would have been Seattle and Kansas city; every other team he has held to four runs or less. Sheets has given up four runs or less in every start since May 2nd but the lack of the A’s offense means wins are going to be hard to come by. The magic dust is starting to wear off for Fister, as he has allowed 16 runs in his last 20 1/3 innings.

Sit Them:

Chris Tillman (BAL) ~ TB (Davis), MIN (Baker)
Kyle Davies (KC) ~ TOR (Cecil), @NYY (Pettitte)
Tim Wakefield (BOS) ~ @OAK (Braden), @SEA (Fister)
Aaron Laffey (CLE) ~ @MIN (Baker), TB (Garza)
Armando Galarraga (DET) ~ TEX (Hunter), TOR (TBD)
Anthony Lerew (KC) ~ TOR (Litsch), @NYY (Hughes)
Kevin Slowey (MIN) ~ CLE (TBD), @BAL (Arrieta)
Scott Kazmir (LAA) ~ @NYY (Hughes), @TEX (Hunter)
David Pauley (SEA) ~ CWS (Hudson), BOS (Matsuzaka)
Scott Feldman (TEX) ~ @DET (Bonderman), LAA (Santana)
Jesse Litsch (TOR) ~ @KC (Lerew), @DET (Galarraga)
Wade Davis (TB) ~ @BAL (Tillman), @CLE (Masterson)

I would really like to recommend Slowey, but after surrendering five or more runs in five of his last six starts, it is time to reserve him if you have not already. Check his numbers this year to last year and they are almost identical. If you are looking for a reason to start Wakefield, his ERA has been two runs lower on the road than at home this season (6.63 vs. 4.40). He allowed six runs in six innings in his lone start against Oakland this season. Kazmir has lost four in a row, allowing 30 runs in 19 2/3 innings. Pauley was 1-6 with a 3.68 ERA in Triple-A with 56 strikeouts in 85 2/3 innings before being recalled. Feldman struggled in both of his starts against Detroit and the Angels allowing four and five runs respectively. Davis has struggled with his command, making it hard for him to get through a full five innings. He has lasted that long in only five of his last nine starts.

National League:

Start them:

Jair Jurrjens (ATL) ~ SD (LeBlanc), @FLA (Robertson)
Carlos Silva (CHC) ~ HOU (Rodriguez), STL (Carpenter)
Johnny Cueto (CIN) ~ WAS (Martin), @HOU (Oswalt)
Mike Leake (CIN) ~ WAS (Atilano), @HOU (Rodriguez)
Ubaldo Jimenez (COL) ~ @FLA (Sanchez), @PHI (Kendrick)
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) ~ SF (Lincecum), NYM (Dickey)
Madison Bumgarner (SF) ~ @LAD (McDonald), @ARI (Kennedy)
Tim Lincecum (SF) ~ @LAD (Kershaw), @ARI (Enright)
Chris Carpenter (STL) ~ PHI (Moyer), @CHC (Silva)

Roll the Dice:

Ian Kennedy (AZ) ~ NYM (Pelfrey), SF (Bumgarner)
Barry Enright (AZ) ~ NYM (Dickey), SF (Lincecum)
Anibal Sanchez (FLA) ~ COL (Jimenez), ATL (Lowe)
Wandy Rodriguez (HOU) ~ @CHC (Silva), CIN (Leake)
Dave Bush (MIL) ~ @PIT (Lincoln), WAS (Atilano)
Mike Pelfrey (NYM) ~ @AZ (Kennedy), @LAD (McDonald)
R.A. Dickey (NYM) ~ @ARI (Enright), @LAD (Kershaw)
Kyle Kendrick (PHI) ~ @STL (Hawksworth), COL (Jimenez)
Jamie Moyer (PHI) ~ @STIL (Carpenter), COL (Francis)
Wade LeBlanc (SD) ~ ATL (Jurrjens), PIT (Lincoln)
J.D. Martin (WAS) ~ @CIN (Cueto), @MIL (Capuano)

Kennedy has had success in two starts against San Francisco with a 1.93 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. He has yet to face the Mets this season. Rodriguez has been rolling, winning three of his last four starts with only five runs allowed in 26 innings to go with 25 strikeouts. Bush has been a much better pitcher in June and July compared to the first two months of the season. He has allowed two runs or less in six consecutive starts. Pelfrey has been more inconsistent of late, going 1-3 in his last five starts with a no decision. His ERA has been steadily on the rise since the beginning of June. After rolling off six straight wins, Dickey has suffered three losses with a no decision. His last three starts he has pitched better than his record shows with four runs allowed in 20 2/3 innings. LeBlanc has not won since June 12th although he has pitched well if you throw out his start at Colorado and his interleague start versus Tampa Bay. J.D. Martin has allowed three runs or less in six of his seven starts this year so his overall record is very deceiving.

Sit Them:

Jeff Francis (COL) ~ @FLA (Robertson), @PHI (Moyer)
Nate Robertson (FLA) ~ COL (Francis), ATL (Jurrjens)
James McDonald (LAD) ~ SF (Bumgarner), @NYM (Pelfrey)
Jeff Karstens (PIT) ~ MIL (Capuano), SD (TBD)
Brad Lincoln (PIT) ~ MIL (Bush), SD (LeBlanc)
Blake Hawksworth (STL) ~ PHI (Kendrick), @CHC (Gorzelanny)
Luis Atilano (WAS) ~ @CIN (Leake), @MIL (Bush)

Francis had been pitching decent from the middle of May to mid June before allowing 16 runs in his last 12 innings. McDonald is just coming up from the minor leagues where is numbers were less than dominating for a guy who has played at that level before. Kartsen’s only has one win since May 8th. Atilano is 1-5 in his last seven starts. Hawksworth ERA has not been too terrible, but is letting batters hit over .300 against him which kills your team’s WHIP ratio.

2010 Waiver Wire – Week 16

Here is a look at some potential players to target in your fantasy baseball league that might be out there on the waiver wire for week 16.

American League only:

SS – Yunel Escobar – The trade from Atlanta to the  Blue Jays can only help Escobar after hitting a miserable .237 in zero home runs and only 19 RBI.  Last year, Escobar hit .299 with 14 home runs and 76 RBI and hit .321 after the All-Star break.

National League only:

SS – Alex Gonzalez – The other side of the Escobar trade that took place on Wednesday.  Gonzalez comes to the Braves after having a career first-half while with Toronto, hitting 17 home runs and 50 RBI with a .257 average.  He’ll fill a hole at shortstop in the real world, but to think he’ll repeat those power number during the second half is  unrealistic. Gonzalez is hitting seventh in Atlanta’s line up tonight.

SP – James McDonald – McDonald is set to replace John Ely in the Los Angeles Dodgers rotation. You can read more about him here.

RP – Ernesto Frieri – just called up by the San Diego Padres, this is a guy to consider adding, especially if you league has specific relief pitcher designations for your rosters. Frieri who will turn 25 next week, had 37 2/3 innings in Triple-A with 49 strikeouts and a 1.43 ERA to go along with 17 saves. He is likely to take the spot of Mike Adams in the bullpen with Adams headed to the disabled list.

1B – Brad Eldred – called up by the Colorado Rockies with Todd Helton going on the disabled list, Eldred will serve as the right-handed hitting platoon mate to Jason Giambi giving him more value in leagues that have daily transactions. Eldred was hitting .267 with 22 home runs and 64 RBI in 266 at bats in Triple-A before being called up.

12/15 Team Mixed League:

SP – Travis Wood – How can I not recommend the Cincinnati lefty after pitching 8 2/3 perfect innings in his last outing before the All-Star break against Roy Halladay?  He only has three major league starts so far with three no decisions, but has pitched 20 2/3 innings with 17 strikeouts and an ERA of 2.18 to go with a .68 WHIP.

Pitchers Missing Starts in Week 15

Instead of focusing on two-start pitchers in week 15 with a half slate of games, this article is going to focus only on those pitchers that are not starting in week 15. The last thing you want to do is have any pitchers in your line up that produce no stats and put your fantasy baseball team right behind the eight ball right out of the second half gate.

Here is a look at the pitchers that will be missing starts in week 15. Some teams have three games while others have four, so you will see either one or two names listed below.

AZ – Kenndey, Enright

ATL – Medlen

BAL – Arrieta, Tillman

BOS – Dice-K

CHC – Silva

CHW – Hudson

CIN – Leake, Wood

CLE – Laffey

COL – Jimenez, Francis

DET – Oliver

FLA – Robertson, Sanabia

HOU – W. Rodriguez, Moehler

KC – Davis, Lerew

LAA – Kazmir

LAD – McDonald – James McDonald was summoned from Triple-A and it looks like he will take the rotation spot of John Ely. McDonald was 6-1 in Triple-A with a 4.41 ERA and 57 strikeouts in 63 1/3 innings. He has yet to translate his success from the minor leagues into the major leagues as a starter before so I don’t expect much from him the second half of the season. If you own Ely, I would still hold on to him for a few weeks if you have the roster spot for him.

MIL – Parra, D. Davis

MIN – Blackburn, Baker

NYM – Takahashi

NYY – Hughes, Vazquez

OAK – Sheets, Braden

PHI – Kendrick

PIT – Lincoln, Karstens

SD – Latos, LeBlanc

SF – Bumgarner

SEA – 5th starter won’t start although who that will be with Cliff Lee gone is still up in the air

STL – Hawksworth

TB – Garza, W. Davis

TEX – Feldman

TOR – Cecil, Litsch / Rzepcynski – Marcum is supposed to come back on Sunday from injury.

WAS – Martin, Atilano

Second Half Preview – Hitters – Outfield

Now that the first half of stats has wrapped up, here is a look at some of the surprises and disappointments from a fantasy baseball perspective from the first half and what the forecast looks like for the second half in regards to outfielders.

On a more positive note, there were a ton of surprises in the outfield in the first half, but that is to be expected with so many more players at one position than anywhere else on the diamond.

Corey Hart of the Milwaukee Brewers heads into the second half second in RBI among outfielders with 65 RBI. His 21 home runs have been as a result of a 5.3 percentage point increase in his fly ball rate and his percent of home runs per fly balls jumping 10 percentage points from 2009. The light finally went on for Chris Young in Arizona has he has reduced his strikeout rate by 7.3 percentage points from last year which has helped raise his batting average, putting him back in line with his 2008 numbers with more stolen bases. If you combine Jonny Gomes numbers from the last two years which gives him 559 at bats or the equivalent of one season, he has 31 home runs and 111 RBI. Brennan Boesch has come out of nowhere for Detroit, hitting .342 with 12 home runs and 49 RBI. Boesch is a career .269 hitter in the minor leagues and currently has a BABIP of .384 so I would expect some regression in his batting average the second half of the season.

In the speed department, there was a lot of debate before the season among experts as to who was going to be the best player between the likes of Michael Bourn, Juan Pierre, Rajai Davis, Nyjer Morgan or Julio Borbon. Bourn, Pierre and Davis have had somewhat similar stats, but the two players who have surprised the most have been Brett Gardner (more playing time) and Scott Podsednik.

I always do this in the pre-season when ranking players just to be sure that there is no bias when looking at a players name for rating them higher. Here are two stat lines from the first half for a guy that was picked in the 4th or 5th rounds in most drafts to someone that was picked in round 20 or later depending on the size of the league.

Player A – .309 avg   56 runs   5 HR  29 RBI  25 steals
Player B – .287 avg    52 runs   8 HR  29 RBI  20 steals

Player A is Gardner, player b is Andrew McCutchen from Pittsburgh. I could do the same with Podsednik and Ichiro Suzuki and you would see that their numbers match up stat for stat from the first half with Ichiro having a few more points of batting average, again to my point in my rankings this year why I thought and always do that Ichiro is over rated in fantasy purposes. You could also add to the list of surprises Angel Pagan who has filled in nicely for Carlos Beltran in New York with a .315 average and 19 stolen bases.

On the flip side of the coin, in the disappointment department, Julio Borbon has failed many fantasy owners this year. He has rebounded from a dismal April and if you pro rate his numbers over the course of a full season, you would be looking at 74 runs scored, 6 home runs and 50 RBI which would not be too bad if he were stealing bases. After an 83% success rate last year, he has managed only eight stolen bases in 14 attempts this season. His runs scored have suffered after he was moved out of the lead off spot when he was struggling at the plate. Raul Ibanez has failed to come close to his career year from 2009 with only seven home runs and a .243 batting average on the season. It looks like a combination of age and a decrease in his fly ball rate will leave his numbers looking more like his 2004 stat line. Nick Markakis seems to be trending the wrong way in his career at such a young age. After a drop in power in 2009, his home runs have dropped off again 2010 with only six home runs the first half of the season and a home run per fly ball rate that is less than half of what it was from 2006-2008. Jay Bruce is another outfielder that has seen his power drop with only 10 home runs the first half of the season, in part due to a 6.7 point percentage drop in his fly ball rate. Likewise for Jason Bay who has turned into David Wright of 2009 in the power category with only six home runs the first half of the season, in part due to leaving Fenway Park for Citi Field as well as some bad luck and a little bit of age / pressing at the plate mixed in.

Rising: Carlos Quentin ended the first half on an up note after battling shoulder and hamstring issues the first half of the season, hitting 14 home runs over his last 110 at bats with 35 runs driven in. Tyler Colvin should see a lot more at bats the second half of the season for Chicago Cubs.

Falling: Erick Hinske could lost some at bats the second half of the year with the return of Matt Diaz once Jason Heyward returns plus the chance the Atlanta Braves pull off a trade for an outfielder. Daniel Nava and Darnell McDonald will eventually lose playing time in Boston once Jacoby Ellsbury returns from injury, possibly by the end of the month.

Second Half Preview – Hitters – Infield

Now that the first half of stats has wrapped up, here is a look at some of the surprises and disappointments from a fantasy baseball perspective from the first half and what the forecast looks like for the second half in regards to infielders.

Catchers:

It has been a crazy year for catchers with the majority of the top fantasy picks under performing. There is a chance that no catcher will reach 80 RBI for the season this year. Nobody could have predicted that the top two catchers in RBI at the All-Star Break would be Miguel Olivo and John Buck. No surprise really with Joe Mauer’s drop in power as I did not buy into him hitting 20 home runs this year. The biggest disappointment excluding injuries has been Matt Wieters who has failed to show much progress from last season. If you pro-rate his at bats out to his 2009 numbers, the stats are almost identical with a couple more walks. The two players most likely to jump to the top of the catcher rankings for 2011 and have top value the second half of this year are youngsters Buster Posey and Carlos Santana. Posey has almost as many RBI as Wieters does in 130 less at bats. Santana has looked good, carrying over his plate discipline from the minor leagues with 23 walks and 18 strikeouts.

Rising: Posey, Santana

Falling: Buck, only because he is at risk of being possibly traded with a one year contract and prospect J.P. Arencibia tearing the cover off the ball in Triple-A with 25 home runs in 310 at bats.

First Base:

The biggest disappointments from the first half include Derrek Lee and Pablo Sandoval. Lee seems to have aged from last year as his strikeout rate is up five percentage points and he has been unlucky as well with a .280 BABIP compared to a career average of .321.  Sandoval has been unlucky as well with a .289 BABIP which is 61 points lower than in 2009. His home runs per fly ball are down from 14% in ’09 to only 5.5% so far this season. It could be that his weight gain that he came into spring training with has hampered him all season long. I would throw Prince Fielder into the semi-disappointment category as Ike Davis and Ty Wigginton both had more RBI than him the first half plus he is on pace for less than 40 home runs and under 80 RBI. His strikeout rate has risen for the third consecutive season and is up 3.5 percentage points from last year. You also have to think that the Milwaukee Brewers poor performance coupled with his contract situation has some bearing on his numbers as well. If Milwaukee does move him this year, he could see a jump in stats the second half of the season.

While there have been several surprises in the first half, the most notable one has been Aubrey Huff, currently hitting .295 with 17 home runs and 54 RBI. He has thrived with the move to the National League as both his walk rate is up 3.5 percentage points and his strikeout rate is down 3.1 percentage points.

Rising: Chris Davis of Texas. Only because his numbers were so bad earlier in the year and with Justin Smoak out of the way, the remainder of the season is his time to show whether he is a major league hitter or a guy stuck in that AAAA level between Triple-A and the majors.

Falling: D. Lee, Todd Helton out with injury and power has disappeared with two home runs in 248 at bats.

Second Base:

The biggest disappointment of the first half has been Aaron Hill, currently hitting .189 in 281 at bats followed closely by Gordon Beckham hitting .216 with three home runs. Also falling short was Ben Zobrist with just five home runs in 309 at bats. A year after wining the American League comeback player of the Year award, Hill’s average has been in he tank all season. The hamstring injury he suffered back is April could have impacted his first half possibly as his walk and strikeout ratios seem in line with previous season’s. Beckham has seen his plate discipline erode in his second year with walks down 2.9 percentage points and strikeouts up 2.2 percentage points. The biggest problem from a power perspective has been a eight percentage point increase in his ground ball rate.

Rising: Sean Rodriguez from Tampa Bay had a solid June with four home runs, 17 RBI and six stolen bases.

Falling: Jerry Hairston Jr. is likely to see less at bats in the second half with a crowded San Diego outfield and Everth Cabrera back at shortstop.

Shortstop:

Probably the biggest disappointment has been Jason Bartlett, although if you had tempered expectations for him this season after a break out year last year then maybe it has not been as bad. His BABIP is 100 points lower than last year, currently sitting at .267 and his ground ball rate has reverted back to career normal levels thus reducing his chances for home runs. The hamstring injury he suffered at the end of June has probably hurt his stolen base total this season. Alcides Escobar has failed to live up to fantasy expectations in Milwaukee with a sub par batting average and a lack of stolen bases, although he stole three bases in June and already has two in July. His errors in the field have probably helped to compound the struggles he has had at the plate. Everth Cabrera has been out with injuries, but when healthy, a 25% strikeout rate for a slap hitter is not going to help the batting average any. His speed has been partially neutralized as well by a 16.3 percentage point drop in his ground ball rate. Yunel Escobar somehow managed to go the entire first half of the season without hitting a home run.

Alex Gonzalez has been the biggest surprise in Toronto with 17 home runs, thanks to a return to his 2007 home runs per fly ball rate coupled with a 6.7 percentage point drop in his ground ball rate. Rafael Furcal has returned to fantasy baseball prominence with solid numbers despite only playing in 58 games in the first half of the season.

Rising: Furcal now that he is back and healthy

Falling: Edgar Renteria who will lose at bats to Juan Uribe

Third Base:

The biggest disappointment has been Jose Lopez in Seattle. Batting in a run producing spot in the batting order, he only has managed six home runs with 37 RBI and a .240 batting average. I think there is something to be said for players moving to new positions and the impact it has on their batting. With teammate Chone Figgins also struggling this season, I was surprised at some point Seattle did not return them to their natural starting positions to see if it would spark their bats. I think there is something to be said for being comfortable in the field and that carrying over in the performance when batting. The power numbers have been there for Mark Reynolds, but a .214 batting average and only five stolen bases make him a semi-disappointment this season. His strikeout rate continues to climb as it is now close to an absurd 41.5%. With that many whiffs, it is very hard to hit above .240 without a luck of luck. Aramis Ramirez started off the year slow and then ran into thumb problems in the middle of May which has hampered his power numbers. He has started off strong in July with four home runs and a .361 batting average.

Jose Bautista has been the story at third base this year with 24 home runs and 56 RBI, helped by consistent at bats and a 11.7 percentage point increase in his fly ball rate from 2009.  Scott Rolen has had a return to his youth with 17 home runs and 57 RBI in 283 at bats thanks to a home run per fly ball rate that has returned to his 2002-2003 levels.

Rising: A. Ramirez could be primed for a big second half if his thumb is better.

Falling: Chipper Jones is hobbling to the end of his career and it looks like he does not have a lot left to offer fantasy baseball league owners unless you play in a league with an on base percentage category.

Second Half Preview – Players Losing Value

With the first half of the season now complete after today’s games, now is the time to assess where your team is in the standings in your fantasy baseball league and make the necessary adjustments either through pickups or trades to help your team move up in the standings.

As the season goes on it becomes easy to lose focus sometimes on forward thinking if you have a player that is performing well or if you have multiple teams to focus on. One of the ways to separate yourself from the competition and improve as a fantasy baseball owner is having the foresight to know when a player is going to lose value. That way you are not counting on stats for the second half of the season that you are truly not going to get.

Just as those owners that had the foresight to reserve Daniel Hudson and Chris Davis early before they were called up so they did not get stuck in a bidding war for leagues that have FAAB, you need to have those same kinds of thoughts when looking at the players that are already on your roster.

Here is a look at some of the players that may be currently on your roster that you were not planning on replacing the second half of the season but at some point you may have to start considering other alternatives. In no particular order:

Hitters:

Jayson Nix / Jason Donald – Nix has been a source of power since being picked up by Cleveland with six home runs in 15 games. The power is not a surprise since he has flashed it in previous stops, but the average is always going to be in the .250 range or below. Donald as acquitted himself well at shortstop with a .274 average in 146 at bats. Starting shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera is expected to start his rehab assignment next week meaning he should be back by the end of July. Since Cabrera has played second base and shortstop before, the Indians will have the option of slotting him into the line up in place of either player.

Casey Kotchman / Michael Saunders – the trade addition of Justin Smoak from Texas plus the recent acquisition of Russell Branyan puts Kotchman on the bench for the time being. Saunders has been filling in for Milton Bradley out with injury, but the addition of two new hitters makes it harder for either player to get extra at bats from the designated hitter slot which Branyan now occupies.

Jeff Francoeur – the return of Carlos Beltran to the New York Mets line up coupled with the surprising play of Angel Pagan this season moves Francoeur into a reserve role after the All-Star Break.

Pitchers:

Vin Mazzaro – Mazzaro has stepped into the Oakland rotation thanks to injuries and has held his own with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP ratio. With Brett Anderson and Dallas Braden soon to be back from the disabled list, he then becomes the odd man out in the rotation until / if the A’s trade Ben Sheets.

Jhoulys Chacin – Chacin turned in some nice numbers as a fill in for the Colorado Rockies staff when the team faced injuries but now with a healthy staff in place, he has already been shifted to the bullpen which leaves him with little value for the second half of the season barring an injury in the rotation.

The Cincinnati Reds Rotation – the Reds have been able to patchwork their rotation because the depth of their starting pitching that when healthy will have seven starting pitchers available to choose from in Johnny Cueto, Bronson Arroyo, Mike Leake, Travis Wood and three pitchers currently on the disabled list in Aaron Harang, Edison Volquez and Homer Bailey. Volquez and Harang are both supposed to be ready after the All-Star break and Bailey by the end of the month. Next season the logjam will be cleared with Harang and Arroyo free agents but for now, it has fantasy baseball ramifications. With youngsters Wood and Leake possibly on an innings limit and Volquez coming back from Tommy John surgery, the Reds could feature a six-man rotation at some point that would have an immediate impact on pitchers losing out on two-start weeks at some points of the remainder of the season.

Young Pitchers: As teams focus on limiting the innings on young pitchers, it will have a fantasy baseball impact as you juggle the roster over the remaining weeks of the season. Some players are knowingly going to get such down early such as Stephen Strasburg of Washington while others might have a start or two skipped depending on how well their team is doing in the playoff race. Other young pitchers to keep an eye on:

Mat Latos - San Diego – currently sits at 106 2/3 innings and is on an innings limit with a high of possibly 180, is being pushed back in the rotation to start the second half and will likely not start until the middle to end of the week in the week after next. Currently averaging 6.3 innings per start, if he matches that in the second half, that would leave him with roughly 12 more starts the rest of the way although the Padres are going to be in a dilemma if they stay in the playoff race the entire second half.

Phil Hughes - New York – already had one start skipped at the end of June to limit his innings which currently sit at 101. The team has not announced a rough number for innings for him but you can bet they are monitoring it closely. If they team remains in the playoff chase and clinches a spot early, he may miss a start or two at the end of the year as well.

Second Half Preview – Finding Pitching

Usually this would be the day for an article on the two-start pitchers for week 15, but with only four games on the schedule after the All-Star game, that really doesn’t apply. Instead I want to focus on finding pitching for the second half of the season, either for your current team or if you are joining a new mid-season fantasy baseball league.

If you read the June Stat Leaders – Pitching you will see how fickle starting pitching can be. In the category of starting pitchers with the most wins, there are quite a few people that were free agents in mixed leagues when the season began, from Jamie Moyer, Freddy Garcia, R.A. Dickey, Tommy Hunter and possibly some others depending on how deep of a league you played in.

When it comes down to finding new starting pitching, there are several ways to look at identifying someone that can help your staff. Either a player is returning from injury, a player gets a chance because of an injury or demotion or a player is called up from the minor leagues. With that in mind, here is a look at some players in each category to be aware of for the second half of the season.

Players returning from injury:

These players might be available on either your waiver wire depending on how deep your league is or could be picked up easier in a trade.

Edison Volquez is close to returning to the rotation for the Cincinnati Reds as he continues to rehab in Triple-A as he comes back from Tommy John surgery that shelved him for a good portion of the 2009 season. Volquez has a 1.88 ERA in 24 innings with 19 strikeouts between two levels.

Erik Bedard of the Seattle Mariners was close to returning to the major leagues as he was slated for two starts before his shoulder he had surgery on tightened up on him. It means he will likely have to get another start in in the minor leagues before returning to action. He has a 1.64 ERA with 14 strikeouts in 11 innings in three rehab appearances so far this year.

J.A. Happ is expected to return to the Philadelphia rotation sometime after the All-Star break. In six rehab appearances in the minor leagues between three levels, he has a 6.93 ERA with 45 runners allowed in 24 2/3 innings. His last start was on July 4th in which he allowed four runs in 5 1/3 innings and 10 base runners.

It has been a lost season for Brandon Webb in Arizona as he works to make it back for the last month of the season from a shoulder operation. He still is a ways away though as he has only tossed bullpen sessions and has not had any minor league rehab performances yet.

Chris Young of the San Diego Padres is kind of in the same boat as Webb. Out since the beginning of the season due to a strained shoulder, Young had one rehab start back on May 2 and it did not go well as he allowed five runs in 2/3 of an inning and hasn’t pitched since. He is still working to get back by the end of the season.

Jordan Zimmermann is slowly working his way back for the Washington Nationals and is currently on rehab in High-A in the minor leagues as he recovers from Tommy John surgery that saw him miss part of last season. He has only worked five scoreless innings with five strikeouts so far. He may be able to help a fantasy team out the last month of the season.

Minor League Callups:

The Chicago White Sox can talk all they want about Jeff Marquez stepping into the rotation for Jake Peavy who was put on the disabled list, but the real name to won is Daniel Hudson who as of now is still technically in Triple-A but has a good chance of getting the start this weekend after being removed from the All-Star Futures Game which is scheduled to be played this Sunday. Hopefully you already had Hudson rostered because otherwise there is going to be a bidding war in leagues that have FAAB this weekend.

Hudson was brutal in April with a 9.37 ERA but has improved each month since then so his overall numbers now read a respectable 11-4 with a 3.47 ERA and 108 strikeouts in 93 1/3 innings. He has allowed three runs or less in nine consecutive starts going back to May 18th and is holding opposing hitters to a .228 average.

I have been holding on to Jeremy Hellickson in two of my no-trade leagues all season waiting for him to get called up but at this point I am not sure it is going to happen if it does not come after the All-Star break. The most likely scenario would have been for him to replace Wade Davis in the rotation as Davis has been up and down, but then Davis had a decent start against Cleveland this week allowing two runs in seven innings. If he is not placed in the rotation after the All-Star break when rotations can be reset, then Hellickson is likely looking possibly at a relief role barring injury which eliminates any fantasy value for him until 2011.

Hellickson has really nothing left to prove in Triple-A with a 11-2 record with a 2.21 ERA and 104 strikeouts in 105 2/3 innings. In his last 10 starts, his numbers look even better with a 5-1 record and a 1.66 ERA. With only four home runs allowed and 26 walks on the season, he has shown the ability to limit the potential for runs to score.

Barring September call ups, there is one other minor league pitcher that might get a call early and have some impact the second half of the season. When the Seattle Mariners move Cliff Lee, it will eventually create a spot in the rotation for top pitching prospect Michael Pineda who was promoted to Triple-A three starts ago. His numbers have been even better at the higher level with 26 strikeouts in 19 innings at the age of 21. Overall on the season, Pineda is 10-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 104 strikeouts in 96 innings.

Other pitchers to keep an eye on for pickup:

J.D. Martin of the Washington Nationals has looked better in his second season in the major leagues, currently sporting a 3.35 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. He is going to give up his fair share of hits, but if he managed to keep his walk total in check (only five in 40 1/3 innings), he could have some decent value the second half of the year.

Alejandro Sanabia moves into the rotation for the Florida Marlins with the demotion of Chris Volstad. Sanabia has three major league appearances in relief after being promoted from Double-A where he was 5-1 with a 2.03 ERA and 65 strikeouts in 84 1/3 innings.

Marc Rzepczynski gets a shot in the Toronto Blue Jays rotation with Shaun Marcum going on the disabled list. He was one of the young pitcher sleepers heading into the season before fracturing a finger on his pitching hand just before the season started.  His numbers were not pretty in Triple-A with a 6.66 ERA and a .314 batting average allowed. It will likely be down to him and Jesse Litsch to see who remains as the 5th starter once Marcum comes back.

New Writer Added to Staff

Fantasy Baseball Tools is proud to announce a new member to our staff. If you read the Waiver Wire article for this week, you may have noticed the name of the new author.

Tony Mancini has been playing fantasy baseball for 17 years. He has won American League only leagues at CBS Sportsline and in his 12 team private leagues. He also holds dynasty league titles in his 24 team private league. He has previously written for Rotomojo.com as an American League correspondent.

Tony will be handling the waiver wire articles as well as doing some other additional work for the site going forward.

2010 Waiver Wire – Week 15

Here is a look at some potential players to target in your fantasy baseball league that might be out there on the waiver wire in week 15.

American League only:

2B/SS/3B – Jayson Nix – since being claimed off of waivers by the Cleveland Indians, Nix has been on a hot streak. Nix has boosted his overall average to .230 with five home runs and eight RBI since coming to Cleveland. He is a nice middle infield play in mixed leagues if he continues to hit. Qualifies at second base but may also qualify at shortstop (15 games in 2009) and third base (16 games in 2010) depending on your league requirements.

2B / OF – Eric Patterson – Patterson is nothing flashy, but I expect him to play at least two or three days a week while Dustin Pedroia is injured.  I feel his main asset is his speed, but if he can get you a few homers and runs, then even better. He has seven games at second base this season and played five games there last year so he may or may not yet be eligible to play thee in your fantasy baseball league depending on your league requirements.

OF – Michael Brantley – Brantley was called up a few days ago and should see extensive playing time while Shin-Soo Choo is on the disabled list. In 28 major league games in 2009 Brantley hit .313 with 11 RBI with 4 SB’s and had 46 steals in Triple-A in 2009.  After starting 2010 in the majors, Brantley was sent down in mid April after being unable to maintain a .200 average.  While at Triple-A, Brantley hit .319 with 26 RBI and 11 steals.  Brantley is still struggling to hit with his average now under .150.  If you have a spot on your bench for him until he can figure things out, he’s worth the gamble.

RP – Matt Thornton – Chicago White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen made things interesting by having Thornton close out Sunday’s game with Bobby Jenks back from his bereavement leave.  Guillen had Jenks then pitch in the 8th inning in Monday’s game with a seven run lead.    Although Jenks got the save on Tuesday, Thornton should still continue to get save chances from time to time.  Also keep on eye on J.J. Putz who could see some save opportunities if one of the three is moved at the trade deadline.

National League only:

3B – Greg Dobbs – Dobbs was recently called up from Triple-A will serve as the third basemen in Philadelphia while Placido Polanco is on the disabled list. Dobbs has a little bit of power and is worth a short-term pick up in the meantime.

C – Justin Thole – Thole is seeing extended action behind the plate for the New York Mets. The team could be showcasing him for a trade as his name has come up in several rumors. If you have to start two catchers in your league, Thole is not going to hurt you in any category.

12/15 Team Mixed League:

OF – Dexter Fowler – the best thing to happen to Fowler was to be sent down to Triple-A which served as a reality check. There, Fowler hit 340 in 106 at bats with two home runs and 13 RBI. Colorado has four outfielders they can rotate so I can see Fowler playing at least four times per week. With his speed and if he continues to bat at the top of the order, Fowler is a great player to spot start depending on how your league transaction work.

SP - Marc Rzepczynski – Rzepczynski was projected as a starter for the Toronto Blue Jays before breaking his finger at the end of spring training. He may have some control issues but I think he has promise as a back end of the rotation guy. In his first start of the season this week against Minnesota, he worked 5 /23 innings with four runs allowed and seven strikeouts.

June Stat Leaders – Pitching

Here is a look at the top fantasy baseball performers for the month of June in the key pitching categories.

Wins:

5 – Joel Pineiro
5 – CC Sabathia
4 – Jamie Moyer
4 – Carl Pavano
4 – Freddy Garcia
4 – R.A. Dickey
4 – John Lackey
4 – Cliff Lee
4 – Adam Wainwright
4 – Scott Kazmir, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Jason Hammel, Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez, Phil Hughes, David Price, Tommy Hunter, Jonathan Niese

Saves:

10 – Bobby Jenks
9 – Billy Wagner
9 – Francisco Rodriguez
9 – Brian Wilson
8 – Brian Fuentes
8 – Joakim Soria
8 – Neftali Feliz
7 – Mariano Rivera
7 – Jose Valverde
7 – Heath Bell
7 – Matt Lindstrom

Strikeouts:

51 – Felix Hernandez
48 – Stephen Strasburg
47 – Yovani Gallardo
44 – Jered Weaver
42 – Roy Halladay
40 – Francisco Liriano
39 – Dan Haren
38 – Zack Greinke
38 – Josh Johnson
37 – Adam Wainwright

ERA (starters):

1.18 – Josh Johnson
1.75 – Jake Peavy
1.76 – Cliff Lee
1.83 – Jason Hammel
1.84- Clay Buchholz
1.91 – Brandon Morrow
2.11 – Edwin Jackson
2.12 – Ricky Romero
2.15 – Tommy Hunter
2.18 – David Price

WHIP (starters):

0.79 – Felix Hernandez
0.80 – Carl Pavano
0.82 – Josh Johnson
0.86 – Cliff Lee
0.88 – Colby Lewis
0.90 – Kris Medlen
0.92 – Jake Peavy
0.92 – Carlos Silva
0.94 – Jamie Moyer
0.95 – Ted Lilly

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