Blog Archives – Fantasy Baseball Tools

Archive for February, 2010

2010 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft – First Two Rounds

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 28th, 2010

Here are the results from 10 fantasy baseball mock drafts I have participated in over the last week in 15 team mixed league formats. The list below shows the order of players selected, the percent of time they were drafted in the top 30 players and their high and low number in the top 30 picks.

One player on the rise is Matt Holliday who has gone from a mid second round pick to someone that has been appearing late in the first round in my most recent drafts.

15 Team Mixed Draft
Rank	Name	% Drafted	High	Low
1	Albert Pujols	100%	1	2
2	Hanley Ramirez	100%	1	2
3	Alex Rodriguez	100%	3	4
4	Chase Utley	100%	3	7
5	Ryan Braun	100%	4	6
6	Mark Teixeira	100%	5	10
7	Prince Fielder	100%	3	18
8	Matt Kemp	100%	3	13
9	Ryan Howard	100%	4	12
10	Evan Longoria	100%	8	13
11	Miguel Cabrera	100%	8	14
12	Joe Mauer	100%	5	19
13	Tim Lincecum	100%	10	17
14	David Wright	100%	8	21
15	Carl Crawford	100%	12	19
16	Ian Kinsler	100%	9	19
17	Troy Tulowitzki	100%	13	21
18	Matt Holliday	100%	10	27
19	Jacoby Ellsbury	100%	15	25
20	Jimmy Rollins	100%	16	26
21	Mark Reynolds	100%	17	28
22	Jose Reyes	100%	19	27
23	Justin Upton	90%	12	30
24	Roy Halladay	90%	16	30
25	Victor Martinez	80%	22	30
26	Brandon Phillips	60%	25	30
27	Grady Sizemore	50%	20	26
28	Joey Votto	50%	18	28
29	Felix Hernandez	50%	20	29
30	Ryan Zimmerman	50%	21	29

FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide Now Available!!

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 27th, 2010

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

The Draft Guide includes the following:

Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
Expanded player rankings for all positions
Ages for all players as of opening day
Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

This is the best money you will ever spend for fantasy baseball. Order the draft guide now and start reaping the rewards!!!

2010 Fantasy Baseball Rookies

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 27th, 2010

As I have wrote in several previous articles, when drafting rookies in fantasy baseball, I am always looking for the player that has the best chance of producing for me this season, unless it is a dynasty league.

In a one year league or a league with keepers, but not the entire roster, it does no good to roster a guy like Josh Vitters in Single-A when you could use that roster spot for a guy that is going to help you in 2010.

When evaluating rookies, I am looking at two things. One is the players skill set and the other is the chance for an opportunity.

Here is a look at the top 2010 fantasy baseball rookies (for the purposes of this article, I am using my definition of a rookie as a player that did not appear in the major leagues last year) that have the best chance of making an impact in 2010.

1) Jason Heyward (OF) – has shown the ability to do everything at the minor league level despite being only 20 years old last year. Has a very good eye at the plate and owns a .318 minor league batting average along with a 84% stolen base success rate. Has the frame to hit 30+ home runs as he gets older. With Bobby Cox in his last year as Atlanta Braves and the willingness of the Braves to promote prospects through the system regardless of age leads me to believe that Heyward starts the season in the major leagues.

2) Stephen Strasburg (SP) – the No. 1 pick out of San Diego State appeared in the Arizona Fall League and went 4-1 with a 4.26 ERA. He struck out 23 batters while allowing seven walks in 19 innings. There is no one better than him currently in the Washington Nationals rotation and the fact the Nationals are having him pitch in home games only in spring training to draw fans (they are already working on marketing him) leads me to believe he starts the year in the major leagues.

3) Austin Jackson – expected to start the season in center field and hit lead off for the Detroit Tigers. Minor league batting average of .287 with a 78% stolen base success rate. Needs to cut down on his strikeouts and power is still developing so keep expectations realistic for him in 2010.

4) Desmond Jennings (OF) - has a .305 career batting average with good plate discipline. Has a career stolen base success rate of 82%. With two potential openings in Tampa Bay in place of Pat Burrell or Matt Joyce, Jennings should be up for good in May and could post numbers similar to Carl Crawford.

5) Drew Storen (RP) – it was a rapid rise up the ladder for Storen in 2009. After being drafted in the first round by the Washington Nationals, he pitched at three levels and ended the year by pitching in the Arizona Fall League. Had a 1.95 ERA with a .78 WHIP ratio with 49 strikeouts in 37 innings in the minor leagues. He followed that up with a .66 ERA in the AFL with 13 strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings. He is the future closer of the Nationals and could see some save opportunities late in the season.

6) Aroldis Chapman (SP) – Cuban left-hander that has a slight chance to break camp with the Cincinnati Reds. Reportedly needs some work on his command but has looked good throwing to hitters so far. Of course that is entirely different from facing an entire batting order in game conditions. The Reds only have one spot in their rotation up for grabs, so he is in the mix with several other contenders.

7) Pedro Alvarez (1B/3B) – not a bad first season with 27 home runs and 95 RBI while split between two levels. Nice to see improvement in his batting average after being promoted to Double-A where he hit .333 compared to .247 in High-A. Should be up in June after spending a couple of months in Triple-A.

8.) Michael Taylor (OF) – the trade to the Oakland A’s in the off-season gives him a faster track at making it to the major leagues. Hit 20 home runs with 85 RBI and 21 stolen bases between two levels in 2010. The lack of power in the A’s outfield should put Taylor in the major leagues by mid-season.

9) Carlos Santana (C) – switch-hitting catcher with power and plate discipline. Hit 23 home runs in Double-A last season with 97 RBI. Has a career minor league batting average of .287 with more walks than strikeouts (288 vs. 283). Will start the season in Triple-A and should be ready to take over as full-time catcher for the Cleveland Indians the second half of the season.

10) Jeremy Hellickson (SP) – could probably step into the Tampa Bay rotation now with some success but there is no room with five solid starters currently in the rotation. Dominated between Double-A and Triple-A with a 2.45 ERA and a .886 WHIP ratio. Had a 10.4 K/9 ratio while allowing only 2.3 walks per nine.

11) Chris Carter (1B) – power potential on a team lacking in power makes him a player to target for 2010. Finished the season with 54 at bats in Triple-A for the Oakland A’s. Crushed Double-A pitching to the tune of a .337 average with 24 home runs, 101 RBI and 41 doubles. With the Daric Barton era on its last legs, Carter should see time the second half of the year.

12) Justin Smoak (1B) – struggled at Triple-A after being promoted at the end of the 2009 season. The 11th overall pick in the 2008 draft, Smoak has made a rapid rise up the Texas Rangers farm system. Gives the Rangers an option at first base if Chris Davis struggles and is unable to cut down his strikeouts.

13) Brett Wallace (1B) – could have won a spot in the major leagues with the Oakland A’s to start the year, but the trade to the Toronto Blue Jays means he likely starts the year in the minor leagues. Career .305 minor league hitter that should be a 20 home run per year type of guy once he gets to the Show. Probably won’t see action until after the trade deadline assuming the Blue Jays can move Lyle Overbay.

14) Logan Morrison (1B) – suffered a fracture in his right wrist in 2009 which limited his at bats to 278. Has great plate discipline as he walked 17 more times than he struck out. Power still needs to develop, but with the budget conscious Marlins, he has a chance to open the year at first base. Could put up similar stats to James Loney of 2009.

15) Jake Arrieta (SP) – another good arm in the Baltimore Orioles farm system that made it to Triple-A the second half of last year. Was easier to hit once he got there, posting a 3.93 ERA and a 1.418 WHIP with 7.7 K/9. Numbers were much better in Double-A before the promotion with a 2.59 ERA, 1.153 WHIP and 10.7 K/9. Look for Arrieta to appear in the Orioles rotation the second half of the season.

16) Hector Rondon (SP) – the Indians rotation is a mess so it’s not like he has a bunch of stud pitchers to pass on the depth chart. Split time last season between Double-A and Triple-A. Has shown good control in the minor leagues with 1.9 walks per nine innings and eight strikeouts per nine. Even if he starts the year in Triple-A for more seasoning, he should not be down there too long. Just turned 22 this week.

17) Ike Davis (1B) – the 18th overall pick in the 2008 draft made it to Double-A last year where he hit .309 with 13 home runs and 43 RBI in 207 at bats. With Daniel Murphy and Mike Jacobs the New York Mets option at first base, it could be only a matter of time before Davis gets a look.

18) Jason Castro (C) – only has Humberto Quintero in front of him and the Astros need all of the offense they can get. Reached Double-A last season and it would be quite jump for him to reach the major leagues. However, holds a .295 career minor league batting average with good plate discipline (77 walks to 108 strikeouts). Struggled in the Arizona Fall League hitting .143 in 42 at bats.

Fantasy Baseball Writers Wanted!

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 26th, 2010

Here at Fantasy Baseball Tools, we are committed to providing you the reader with the highest quality fantasy baseball content on the web. To achieve that goal, we are looking for additional fantasy baseball writers for the 2010 season.

I know we have a lot of intelligent readers based on some of the questions and feedback I have gotten, so if you have had previous writing experience or are looking to get published for the first time, this is your opportunity!!

These are unpaid positions, but it will provide you with great writing experience and the chance to write on topics that you are interested in.

If you are interested, please send an email to fantasybaseballtools@gmail.com and include the following information:

Your name and age
The type of articles you would be interested in writing about
A sample article of your previous work. If you have had nothing published before, write a sample of the type of article you would like to have published.
Your fantasy baseball background

2010 Fantasy Baseball – The First Round

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 26th, 2010

There has been much debate over where a fantasy baseball league is won; either the first half of the draft, or the middle rounds, or some combination of through the draft and then making the correct pickups in free agency.

What often gets overlooked however is the first round. While you are getting a good player in the first round, history has shown that you are not always getting the best value in the first round.

If you look at the first round average draft position of 2009, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Grady Sizemore, Jimmy Rollins, Josh Hamilton, Carlos Beltran and Lance Berkman all did not earn first round value in a 15 team league, which is a 47% bust rate.

It gives some pause for thought how much you are willing to take a chance on an injured player like a Brandon Webb or hoping a young player like Chris Davis finds his way, knowing there is a good chance your first round pick might perform in terms of value of a player going in the third or fourth round.

With that in mind, here are my top 15 picks for 2010.

1) Albert Pujols – the number one pick, although if you are a big believer in position scarcity (which is a separate debate) Hanley Ramirez could go in this spot as I have seen in several mock drafts. Pujols has managed to play through elbow problems since injuring it back in 2003 so that is the only slight risk to him.

2) Hanley Ramirez – you have to weigh how comfortable you are with having a lesser player at shortstop if you have the first pick and opt for Pujols. If you pass on Hanley at 1 or 2, you are missing out on Troy Tulowitzki, Jimmy Rollins and Jose Reyes coming back in the second round. Your pick in the third round is too early for Derek Jeter but he will not make it back to you in the fourth round so your starting shortstop would be someone in the next tier of players then.

3) Alex Rodriguez – how good is he? He put up almost the same number of home runs and RBI as Evan Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman last season and he did it in 140 – 170 less at bats. He ran more the second half of the season when his hip was feeling better so there is no reason he cannot steal 20 or more bases this season.

4) Chase Utley – scores 110+ runs, hits 30+ home runs and last year was a perfect 23-for-23 in stolen bases, which gives him an 88% success rate in his major league career. Not bad for a guy that was coming back from hip surgery.

5) Ryan Braun – in 2009 among all outfielders was, first in runs scored, tied for second in RBI, third in batting average and tied for eighth in home runs. Only 26 so he still has a good chance to hit 40 home runs in the next few seasons.

6) Matt Kemp – had a nice jump in numbers that saw him hit eight more home runs and drive in 25 more RBI compared to 2008 and he did it in the exact same number of at bats. He also managed to put up those numbers despite hitting seventh and eighth for 250 at bats last year.

7) Ryan Howard – I don’t mind the slightly lower batting average to get the additional home runs and RBI that he consistently provides every season. Four straight seasons of 45+ home runs and 136+ RBI gives you a good head start on those two categories.

8.) Mark Teixeira – numbers took a jump once Alex Rodriguez returned to the Yankees lineup last season Hit .200 in April with three home runs and then went nuts in May with 13 home runs and 34 RBI. Took advantage of his new home stadium by slugging 24 of his 39 home runs there.

9) Evan Longoria – power continues to develop with 44 doubles and 33 home runs at the age of 24 last year. Despite being a perfect 16-for-16 in stolen bases in his major league career, not sure if he ever gets close to 20 with his comments this week about his hamstrings being affected by the turf at Tropicana field.

10) Prince Fielder – matched power numbers of Ryan Howard last year, but has not show the ability to do it yet on a consistent basis every season. His 2009 numbers compared to his 2008 season is the difference between him being a first round pick and a third round selection.

11) Matt Holliday – showed he could still function away from Coors Field in splitting the season between Oakland and St. Louis. A return to the National League and the familiarity with pitching for a full season should keep his numbers intact.

12) Miguel Cabrera – I like the batting average, but his power is less than the other first basemen ahead of him in the first round. Has also scored less than 100 runs in each of the last three seasons.

13) Jimmy Rollins – lack of power in 2009 in the first half and an unlucky BABIP killed his value. No reason for him not to bounce back in 2010. Hard to find shortstops that will score 115+ runs with 20+ home runs and 30+ stolen bases.

14) David Wright – high batting average plus his ability to rack up steals at third base still gives him value, even if he doesn’t hit 30 home runs again. I would put his home run total between 2008 and 2009 levels and consider anything above that as gravy.

15) Troy Tulowitzki – position scarcity plus power and speed make him an attractive option at the end of the first round. Needs to improve his stolen base success rate though if he is going to be allowed to keep running. Hit 90 points higher the second half of the season in 2009.

2010 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 24th, 2010

It always makes me laugh when a magazine or website reveals their list of 2010 fantasy baseball sleepers and it has names like Carlos Gonzalez, or Carlos Quentin or Billy Butler on it. Those my friends are not sleepers. Those are players that someone might expect to have a breakout season or someone that was injured last year and is expected to bounce back.

To me, a sleeper is someone that does not have a lot of value heading into the season, or is in the minor leagues and will be up in the major leagues soon, or somebody that in an AL or NL only format is going to be able to help your team.

With that in mind, as your fantasy baseball draft or auction winds down, here are some names to keep in mind as the best 2010 fantasy baseball sleepers by position.

C – Jason Castro (Astros) – only has Humberto Quintero in front of him and the Astros need all of the offense they can get. Reached Double-A last season and it would be quite jump for him to reach the major leagues. However, holds a .295 career minor league batting average with good plate discipline (77 walks to 108 strikeouts). Struggled in the Arizona Fall League hitting .143 in 42 at bats.

1B – Logan Morrison (Marlins) – like Castro, Morrison played in Double-A last year. Suffered a fracture in his right wrist in 2009 which limited his at bats to 278. Has great plate discipline as he walked 17 more times than he struck out. Power still needs to develop, but with the budget conscious Marlins, he has a chance to open the year at first base. Could put up similar stats to James Loney of 2009.

2B – Chris Getz (Royals) - was traded to Kansas City along with Josh Fields for Mark Teahen in the off season. Royals general manager Dayton Moore has already gone on record saying there could eventually be a trade with the depth they have in the infield which would open a starting role for Getz if that happened. Had 25 stolen bases in 375 at bats in 2009 so he is a good end game option in AL only leagues.

SS – Starlin Castro (Cubs) – this might be a little bit of a stretch but he has been drawing rave reviews in the minor leagues and handled himself well in the Arizona Fall League. With a weak link at second base, there is a slim chance that Castro could open the year at shortstop with Ryan Theriot moving to second base. Has a career .302 batting average with 34 steals in 665 at bats. Received a lot of playing time in the AFL and hit .376 with nine steals in 101 at bats.

3B – Chad Tracy (Cubs) – just another Aramis Ramirez shoulder injury away from getting 500+ at bats. Can also play first base so he should be able to get 250-300 at bats with the Cubs and has a little pop in his bat. Nice end game pick in NL only leagues.

OF- Jim Edmonds (Brewers) – an under the radar signing by the Milwaukee Brewers. Out of baseball last season and will be 40 in June, however he has a few things going for him. One, Carlos Gomez is in front of him and there is no guarantee he hits any better than he did with the Minnesota Twins. Two, if they fall into a platoon, Edmonds as the left-handed batter will get the majority of at bats. Slugged 19 home runs in 250 at bats with the Cubs in 2008.

SP- Felipe Paulino (Astros) - has the chance to grab the 5th starter spot from Brian Moehler. Has a nice strikeout rate but has been too inconsistent in the major leagues. Had a string of four solid starts in September in which he allowed 9 runs in 23 innings with 27 strikeouts, but then was bombed for eight runs in his last start of the month. Is an option in NL only leagues and worth stashing on reserve for his strikeout upside.

SP – Hector Rondon (Indians) - the Indians rotation is a mess so it’s not like he has a bunch of stud pitchers to pass on the depth chart. Split time last season between Double-A and Triple-A. Has shown good control in the minor leagues with 1.9 walks per nine innings and eight strikeouts per nine. Even if he starts the year in Triple-A for more seasoning, he should not be down there too long. Turns 22 later this week.

RP – Kris Medlen (Braves) – made it to the major leagues before Tommy Hanson did last season. Once he arrived, he struggled as a starter and was then moved to the bullpen. He posted some nice numbers after the All-Star break with a 2.80 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with more than a strikeout per inning. Only a string of bad starts away by Kenshin Kawakami from moving into the rotation.

2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Rising / Falling

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 23rd, 2010

With spring training here and new information coming out every day on players, let’s take a look at the 2010 fantasy baseball average draft position (ADP) to see which players are moving up or down on the draft board.

Rising:

Roy Halladay (27th overall) – ADP was 34 two weeks ago and I have seen him going as high as the late teens in recent drafts. With pitching going early this season, Halladay is getting bumped up closer to Tim Lincecum. If there is any pitcher that is going to get 20 or more wins this season, Halladay would be the favorite at this point.

Justin Morneau (39) – ADP is up five spots but he has been going higher as well in recent mock drafts. Concerns about his back and a potential for less power have seem to have been erased from fantasy owners minds.

Josh Johnson (72) – ADP is up 10 spots from two weeks ago. Looks like owners at the end of the fifth round are afraid he will not make it back on the turn in snake drafts and are pulling the trigger a little bit sooner to ensure they get him.

Clayton Kershaw (98) – ADP up 15 spots. Being pulled higher by the early drafting of the Tier 1 pitchers. Arguably the last solid number one starter for your fantasy baseball team depending how much faith you have in Cole Hamels or Ubaldo Jimenez going after him.

Matt Wieters (99) – ADP up 9 spots and he is coming close to falling into the overrated category if he goes any higher. I don’t see his upside that much greater than Miguel Montero or Jorge Posada whom you can get four rounds later in the draft.

Huston Street (143) – ADP up 18 spots as he is last closer going off the board before the remaining relief pitchers who all have question marks tied to them.

Brett Anderson (166) – ADP up 25 spots as people are buying into the hype being spouted by magazines and other websites calling him the breakout pitcher of 2010. No longer has the potential to value for you based on where he is currently going in drafts.

James Loney (184) ADP up 20 spots that has pushed him up the first base rankings ahead of Adam LaRoche, Todd Helton and Paul Konerko. Combination of batting average plus I think people are hoping for an increase in power which I don’t see happening.

Falling:

Alfonso Soriano (77) – ADP down five spots and there is a chance he goes later than this. There is lots of good talent still on the board at the start of the sixth round. His recent comments about his knee that he had surgery on being only 80-85% healthy has to cause some concern if you are planning to draft him.

Michael Bourn (79) – ADP is down 12 spots from two weeks ago. Nice to see that people are starting to realize his true value and are pushing him back to a more reasonable position in that draft, although the 79th spot is still much too high.

Vladimir Guerrero (138) – ADP down 16 spots. Still might have another good season in him, but it is hard to tie up your utility spot this early in the draft since he does not qualify at any other position.

Chris Davis (158) – ADP down 13 spots as people are still trying to decide which version of him are they going to get. It looks like right now owners are not buying into his performance after he came back from Triple-A at the end of the 2009 season.

Jack Cust (232) – ADP down 77 spots thanks to crowded Oakland A’s roster that will limit Cust’s at bats in 2010. Low batting average is also tough to take this late in the draft unless you planned on taking him and surrounded him with high average hitters.

2010 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Trends

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 21st, 2010

After competing in several 2010 fantasy baseball mock drafts over the last few days, there are several trends that seem to be occurring that you need to be aware of as you prepare for your fantasy baseball league.

1) The top five seems to be locked in place with Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley and Ryan Braun. Every once in awhile Matt Kemp or Ryan Howard may jump in the top 5, but other than that, the top is pretty well set from draft to draft.

2) David Wright is starting to slowly creep back up draft boards. His original average draft position (ADP) had him going in the early second round of 15 team mixed drafts. In the drafts from this current weekend, he was consistently in the first round and went as high as 11th. I think the majority of people are willing to give him a pass on last season and expect his numbers to return to 2008 levels.

3) Pitching continues to go very high in drafts. By the end of round seven, almost every top tiered pitcher is off the board. The next pitchers being drafted usually include a group from Chad Billingsley, Matt Garza, Brandon Webb, Jered Weaver, and A.J. Burnett. If you are not comfortable with any one of those players being the first pitcher or second pitcher on your staff, you are going to have to plan on taking a pitcher a little bit earlier than you are accustomed to this season.

4) Relief pitchers are following the trend of starting pitchers and seem to be going higher than usual for the second group of 15 closers. In years past it seemed like you could maybe pick up a second closer that was still decent in rounds 13-15 or maybe even later. That no longer seems to be the case as the most dependable second 15 closers seem to be gone by the end of the 12th round, which is roughly the midway point of the draft. Once the 12th round is over, your options usually look like Brad Lidge, Kerry Wood, Octavio Dotel or taking a chance on the winner of the Toronto / Houston closer competition.

5) There has been one position that is showing a consistent “run” in a draft; that being the catcher position. It looks like the majority or owners have Kurt Suzuki, Jorge Posada, Miguel Montero, Russell Martin and Geovany Soto ranked relatively close because once one of that group is drafted, the others seem to follow shortly after.

The next group after that then is Bengie Molina, Chris Ianetta, Ryan Doumit and Mike Napoli. This gives you an idea of where the two runs are for the group of catchers because if you miss the first one, you might be able to get someone from the second group depending where your draft position is.

2010 Fantasy Baseball Auction Leagues – Mixed Format

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 20th, 2010

Today we are going to take a look at some numbers for a 2010 fantasy baseball auction league in a mixed 15 team format. I use 15 teams as the standard with the increasing number of high stakes fantasy baseball leagues that continue to appear every year as the sport continues to grow.

One thing to keep in mind when looking at a magazine’s auction dollar values is you need to determine the league size. Some magazines will use 15 team, some use 12, or some only post dollar values for a AL or NL only type format. Be sure to read the fine print before using those dollar values in preparation for any draft you are doing.

You also need to factor in that some magazines use a dollar amount for what they think a player will earn. In a lot of cases, the player in a real auction will get bid higher than the amount in a magazine because of the position scarcity factor. For example, a player like Joe Mauer at catcher, his dollar value in a magazine for a 15 team league will be around $20, but his price in a real auction will be closer to $30. So you need to plan for that when you are doing your preparation.

Also, the majority of magazines use dollar values but they don’t equate to a real auction. If you are in a 15 team with 23 player rosters, then a total of 345 players and only 345 players need to have a dollar value and the maximum dollar value there can be assuming a $260 budget is $3,900 (15 x 260).

If you are looking for 15 team dollar values where the numbers are true to a real auction and add up to real numbers, you can get those in the next update to the FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is on sale now. The new update will be sent out this Monday, 2/22 and is only available to those that purchase the draft guide.

Also in an auction, players with stolen bases tend to go for a few dollars more than players that don’t run. This means that just because player A goes higher than player B in a fantasy baseball draft, there is a good chance that if player B can steal bases, the price at an auction will push player B higher than player A.

So let’s take a look at some numbers from a 15 team mixed auction league from the NFBC last season. In the dollar range from $20 – $60, there were 60 players selected for a total of $1,759 which accounted for 45.3% of the total available auction dollar values. The 60 players work out to a nice round number because if you convert that over to a draft, 15 teams by 60 players comes out to exactly four rounds. So give or take a player or two, the first four rounds of a 15 team draft will have all of the players in this dollar range.

In the next dollar range of $10-$19, there were 105 players selected for a total of $1,482. Again, from a draft standpoint, this converts perfectly to seven rounds of players. So right now we have a total player pool of 165 players taken (11 rounds) for $3,241.

In the dollar range of $1-$9, that leaves 180 players for a total of $638. You will notice if you add up all of the dollars, that comes out to $3,879 which means there were $21 left on the draft table that were never used.

Looking strictly at $1-$2 players, there were 86 players selected, or 5.7 players per team. Knowing this, you can plot out in advance of the draft what positions you are willing to take a dollar player at. Some people are willing to tank catchers and spend $1 each there (not a good idea!!), or go with two to three dollar starters or a couple of dollar outfielders. It is up to you on the strategy, but if you want to control the draft, it is best to plan for $2 per roster spot.

By leaving $2 per roster spot, you guarantee yourself of getting the players you want in the end game. For example, there were 55 players bought at $1 last year. When it comes down to the end of an auction, it turns into a draft at that point. Your team will be much better off if you are able to own players 1-4 in the final 55 by having $2 saved per position than by waiting for players with only $1 left which means if you are 8th in the auction order, you end up with player 8, 23, 38, 53.

2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Closers

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 19th, 2010

This is the eighth article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for closers. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

Undervalued:

Chad Qualls looks undervalued to me as he is going in the last tier of closers. The dislocated kneecap that ended his season last August is supposed to be fully healed by spring training. He has always had good numbers with a career ERA of 3.32 and a 1.20 WHIP so I don’t see him imploding like some other closers will this season. If he had finished out the season, he would have been around 30 saves which would have tied him for 16th.

Overvalued:

It is not too often that 36-year-old relief pitchers suddenly morph into closers like Ryan Franklin did last season. His overall numbers look solid on the surface, but looking closer at the stats he had some woeful splits. His minuscule .79 ERA and .79 WHIP the first half turned into a 3.33 ERA and 1.70 after the All-Star break. Of more concern was his walk to strikeout ratio which was 1:1 during that time frame.

Brian Fuentes racked up 48 saves last season, but struggled in the second half with his control. ERA after the All-Star break was 4.81 with a 1.68 WHIP and he also recorded more walks that strikeouts. Batting average against jumped by 45 points and as an extreme fly ball pitcher, that makes him more susceptible to home runs in 2010 which would negatively impact his ERA.

			12 Teams		15 Teams
Rank	Name	ADP	Round	Pick	Round	Pick
1	Jonathan Broxton	70	6	10	5	10
2	Joe Nathan	76	7	4	6	1
3	Jonathan Papelbon	71	6	11	5	11
4	Mariano Rivera	73	7	1	5	13
5	Joakim Soria	102	9	6	7	12
6	Francisco Rodriguez	87	8	3	6	12
7	Andrew Bailey	127	11	7	9	7
8	Heath Bell	103	9	7	7	13
9	Jose Valverde	137	12	5	10	2
10	Huston Street	149	13	5	10	14
11	Brian Wilson	143	12	11	10	8
12	Francisco Cordero	108	9	12	8	3
13	Billy Wagner	150	13	6	10	15
14	Rafael Soriano	157	14	1	11	7
15	Brian Fuentes	117	10	9	8	12
16	Trevor Hoffman	170	15	2	12	5
17	Frank Francisco	204	17	12	14	9
18	Mike Gonzalez	206	18	2	14	11
19	Chad Qualls	228	19	12	16	3
20	David Aardsma	156	13	12	11	6
21	Carlos Marmol	143	12	11	10	8
22	Bobby Jenks	163	14	7	11	13
23	Ryan Franklin	153	13	9	11	3
24	Kerry Wood	227	19	11	16	2
25	Brad Lidge	229	20	1	16	4
26	Matt Capps	234	20	6	16	9
27	Leo Nunez	242	21	2	17	2
28	Jason Frasor	264	22	12	18	9
29	Octavio Dotel	271	23	7	19	1
30	Brandon Lyon	261	22	9	18	6

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
Expanded player rankings for all positions
Ages for all players as of opening day
Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

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