Archive for February, 2010

2010 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft – First Two Rounds

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 28th, 2010

Here are the results from 10 fantasy baseball mock drafts I have participated in over the last week in 15 team mixed league formats. The list below shows the order of players selected, the percent of time they were drafted in the top 30 players and their high and low number in the top 30 picks.

One player on the rise is Matt Holliday who has gone from a mid second round pick to someone that has been appearing late in the first round in my most recent drafts.

15 Team Mixed Draft
Rank Name % Drafted High Low
1 Albert Pujols 100% 1 2
2 Hanley Ramirez 100% 1 2
3 Alex Rodriguez 100% 3 4
4 Chase Utley 100% 3 7
5 Ryan Braun 100% 4 6
6 Mark Teixeira 100% 5 10
7 Prince Fielder 100% 3 18
8 Matt Kemp 100% 3 13
9 Ryan Howard 100% 4 12
10 Evan Longoria 100% 8 13
11 Miguel Cabrera 100% 8 14
12 Joe Mauer 100% 5 19
13 Tim Lincecum 100% 10 17
14 David Wright 100% 8 21
15 Carl Crawford 100% 12 19
16 Ian Kinsler 100% 9 19
17 Troy Tulowitzki 100% 13 21
18 Matt Holliday 100% 10 27
19 Jacoby Ellsbury 100% 15 25
20 Jimmy Rollins 100% 16 26
21 Mark Reynolds 100% 17 28
22 Jose Reyes 100% 19 27
23 Justin Upton 90% 12 30
24 Roy Halladay 90% 16 30
25 Victor Martinez 80% 22 30
26 Brandon Phillips 60% 25 30
27 Grady Sizemore 50% 20 26
28 Joey Votto 50% 18 28
29 Felix Hernandez 50% 20 29
30 Ryan Zimmerman 50% 21 29

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FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide Now Available!!

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 27th, 2010

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!


The Draft Guide includes the following:

  • Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
  • Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
  • Expanded player rankings for all positions
  • Ages for all players as of opening day
  • Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
  • The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
  • You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
  • Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

This is the best money you will ever spend for fantasy baseball. Order the draft guide now and start reaping the rewards!!!


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2010 Fantasy Baseball Rookies

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 27th, 2010

As I have wrote in several previous articles, when drafting rookies in fantasy baseball, I am always looking for the player that has the best chance of producing for me this season, unless it is a dynasty league.

In a one year league or a league with keepers, but not the entire roster, it does no good to roster a guy like Josh Vitters in Single-A when you could use that roster spot for a guy that is going to help you in 2010.

When evaluating rookies, I am looking at two things. One is the players skill set and the other is the chance for an opportunity.

Here is a look at the top 2010 fantasy baseball rookies (for the purposes of this article, I am using my definition of a rookie as a player that did not appear in the major leagues last year) that have the best chance of making an impact in 2010.

1) Jason Heyward (OF) – has shown the ability to do everything at the minor league level despite being only 20 years old last year. Has a very good eye at the plate and owns a .318 minor league batting average along with a 84% stolen base success rate. Has the frame to hit 30+ home runs as he gets older. With Bobby Cox in his last year as Atlanta Braves and the willingness of the Braves to promote prospects through the system regardless of age leads me to believe that Heyward starts the season in the major leagues.

2) Stephen Strasburg (SP) – the No. 1 pick out of San Diego State appeared in the Arizona Fall League and went 4-1 with a 4.26 ERA. He struck out 23 batters while allowing seven walks in 19 innings. There is no one better than him currently in the Washington Nationals rotation and the fact the Nationals are having him pitch in home games only in spring training to draw fans (they are already working on marketing him) leads me to believe  he starts the year in the major leagues.

3) Austin Jackson – expected to start the season in center field and hit lead off for the Detroit Tigers. Minor league batting average of .287 with a 78% stolen base success rate. Needs to cut down on his strikeouts and power is still developing so keep expectations realistic for him in 2010.

4) Desmond Jennings (OF) - has a .305 career batting average with good plate discipline. Has a career stolen base success rate of 82%. With two potential openings in Tampa Bay in place of Pat Burrell or Matt Joyce, Jennings should be up for good in May and could post numbers similar to Carl Crawford.

5) Drew Storen (RP) – it was a rapid rise up the ladder for Storen in 2009. After being drafted in the first round by the Washington Nationals, he pitched at three levels and ended the year by pitching in the Arizona Fall League. Had a 1.95 ERA with a .78 WHIP ratio with 49 strikeouts in 37 innings in the minor leagues. He followed that up with a .66 ERA in the AFL with 13 strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings. He is the future closer of the Nationals and could see some save opportunities late in the season.

6) Aroldis Chapman (SP) – Cuban left-hander that has a slight chance to break camp with the Cincinnati Reds. Reportedly needs some work on his command but has looked good throwing to hitters so far. Of course that is entirely different from facing an entire batting order in game conditions. The Reds only have one spot in their rotation up for grabs, so he is in the mix with several other contenders.

7) Pedro Alvarez (1B/3B) – not a bad first season with 27 home runs and 95 RBI while split between two levels. Nice to see improvement in his batting average after being promoted to Double-A where he hit .333 compared to .247 in High-A. Should be up in June after spending a couple of months in Triple-A.

8.) Michael Taylor (OF) – the trade to the Oakland A’s in the off-season gives him a faster track at making it to the major leagues. Hit 20 home runs with 85 RBI and 21 stolen bases between two levels in 2010. The lack of power in the A’s outfield should put Taylor in the major leagues by mid-season.

9) Carlos Santana (C) – switch-hitting catcher with power and plate discipline. Hit 23 home runs in Double-A last season with 97 RBI. Has a career minor league batting average of .287 with more walks than strikeouts (288 vs. 283). Will start the season in Triple-A and should be ready to take over as full-time catcher for the Cleveland Indians the second half of the season.

10) Jeremy Hellickson (SP) – could probably step into the Tampa Bay rotation now with some success but there is no room with five solid starters currently in the rotation. Dominated between Double-A and Triple-A with a 2.45 ERA and a .886 WHIP ratio. Had a 10.4 K/9 ratio while allowing only 2.3 walks per nine.

11) Chris Carter (1B) – power potential on a team lacking in power makes him a player to target for 2010. Finished the season with 54 at bats in Triple-A for the Oakland A’s. Crushed Double-A pitching to the tune of a .337 average with 24 home runs, 101 RBI and 41 doubles. With the Daric Barton era on its last legs, Carter should see time the second half of the year.

12) Justin Smoak (1B) – struggled at Triple-A after being promoted at the end of the 2009 season. The 11th overall pick in the 2008 draft, Smoak has made a rapid rise up the Texas Rangers farm system. Gives the Rangers an option at first base if Chris Davis struggles and is unable to cut down his strikeouts.

13) Brett Wallace (1B) – could have won a spot in the major leagues with the Oakland A’s to start the year, but the trade to the Toronto Blue Jays means he likely starts the year in the minor leagues. Career .305 minor league hitter that should be a 20 home run per year type of guy once he gets to the Show. Probably won’t see action until after the trade deadline assuming the Blue Jays can move Lyle Overbay.

14) Logan Morrison (1B) – suffered a fracture in his right wrist in 2009 which limited his at bats to 278. Has great plate discipline as he walked 17 more times than he struck out. Power still needs to develop, but with the budget conscious Marlins, he has a chance to open the year at first base. Could put up similar stats to James Loney of 2009.

15) Jake Arrieta (SP) – another good arm in the Baltimore Orioles farm system that made it to Triple-A the second half of last year.  Was easier to hit once he got there, posting a 3.93 ERA and a 1.418 WHIP with 7.7 K/9. Numbers were much better in Double-A before the promotion with a 2.59 ERA, 1.153 WHIP and 10.7 K/9. Look for Arrieta to appear in the Orioles rotation the second half of the season.

16) Hector Rondon (SP) – the Indians rotation is a mess so it’s not like he has a bunch of stud pitchers to pass on the depth chart. Split time last season between Double-A and Triple-A. Has shown good control in the minor leagues with 1.9 walks per nine innings and eight strikeouts per nine. Even if he starts the year in Triple-A for more seasoning, he should not be down there too long. Just turned 22 this week.

17) Ike Davis (1B) – the 18th overall pick in the 2008 draft made it to Double-A last year where he hit .309 with 13 home runs and 43 RBI in 207 at bats. With Daniel Murphy and Mike Jacobs the New York Mets option at first base, it could be only a matter of time before Davis gets a look.

18) Jason Castro (C) – only has Humberto Quintero in front of him and the Astros need all of the offense they can get. Reached Double-A last season and it would be quite jump for him to reach the major leagues. However, holds a .295 career minor league batting average with good plate discipline (77 walks to 108 strikeouts). Struggled in the Arizona Fall League hitting .143 in 42 at bats.

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Fantasy Baseball Writers Wanted!

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 26th, 2010

Here at Fantasy Baseball Tools, we are committed to providing you the reader with the highest quality fantasy baseball content on the web. To achieve that goal, we are looking for additional fantasy baseball writers for the 2010 season.

I know we have a lot of intelligent readers based on some of the questions and feedback I have gotten, so if you have had previous writing experience or are looking to get published for the first time, this is your opportunity!!

These are unpaid positions, but it will provide you with great writing experience and the chance to write on topics that you are interested in.

If you are interested, please send an email to fantasybaseballtools@gmail.com and include the following information:

  • Your name and age
  • The type of articles you would be interested in writing about
  • A sample article of your previous work. If you have had nothing published before, write a sample of the type of article you would like to have published.
  • Your fantasy baseball background
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2010 Fantasy Baseball – The First Round

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 26th, 2010

There has been much debate over where a fantasy baseball league is won; either the first half of the draft, or the middle rounds, or some combination of through the draft and then making the correct pickups in free agency.

What often gets overlooked however is the first round. While you are getting a good player in the first round, history has shown that you are not always getting the best value in the first round.

If you look at the first round average draft position of 2009, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Grady Sizemore, Jimmy Rollins, Josh Hamilton, Carlos Beltran and Lance Berkman all did not earn first round value in a 15 team league, which is a 47% bust rate.

It gives some pause for thought how much you are willing to take a chance on an injured player like a Brandon Webb or hoping a young player like Chris Davis finds his way, knowing there is a good chance your first round pick might perform in terms of value of a player going in the third or fourth round.

With that in mind, here are my top 15 picks for 2010.

1) Albert Pujols – the number one pick, although if you are a big believer in position scarcity (which is a separate debate) Hanley Ramirez could go in this spot as I have seen in several mock drafts. Pujols has managed to play through elbow problems since injuring it back in 2003 so that is the only slight risk to him.

2) Hanley Ramirez – you have to weigh how comfortable you are with having a lesser player at shortstop if you have the first pick and opt for Pujols. If you pass on Hanley at 1 or 2, you are missing out on Troy Tulowitzki, Jimmy Rollins and Jose Reyes coming back in the second round. Your pick in the third round is too early for Derek Jeter but he will not make it back to you in the fourth round so your starting shortstop would be someone in the next tier of players then.

3) Alex Rodriguez – how good is he? He put up almost the same number of home runs and RBI as Evan Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman last season and he did it in 140 – 170 less at bats. He ran more the second half of the season when his hip was feeling better so there is no reason he cannot steal 20 or more bases this season.

4) Chase Utley – scores 110+ runs, hits 30+ home runs and last year was a perfect 23-for-23 in stolen bases, which gives him an 88% success rate in his major league career. Not bad for a guy that was coming back from hip surgery.

5) Ryan Braun – in 2009 among all outfielders was, first in runs scored, tied for second in RBI, third in batting average and tied for eighth in home runs. Only 26 so he still has a good chance to hit 40 home runs in the next few seasons.

6) Matt Kemp – had a nice jump in numbers that saw him hit eight more home runs and drive in 25 more RBI compared to 2008 and he did it in the exact same number of at bats. He also managed to put up those numbers despite hitting seventh and eighth for 250 at bats last year.

7) Ryan Howard – I don’t mind the slightly lower batting average to get the additional home runs and RBI that he consistently provides every season. Four straight seasons of 45+ home runs and 136+ RBI gives you a good head start on those two categories.

8.) Mark Teixeira – numbers took a jump once Alex Rodriguez returned to the Yankees lineup last season Hit .200 in April with three home runs and then went nuts in May with 13 home runs and 34 RBI. Took advantage of his new home stadium by slugging 24 of his 39 home runs there.

9) Evan Longoria – power continues to develop with 44 doubles and 33 home runs at the age of 24 last year. Despite being a perfect 16-for-16 in stolen bases in his major league career, not sure if he ever gets close to 20 with his comments this week about his hamstrings being affected by the turf at Tropicana field.

10) Prince Fielder – matched power numbers of Ryan Howard last year, but has not show the ability to do it yet on a consistent basis every season. His 2009 numbers compared to his 2008 season is the difference between him being a first round pick and a third round selection.

11) Matt Holliday – showed he could still function away from Coors Field in splitting the season between Oakland and St. Louis. A return to the National League and the familiarity with pitching for a full season should keep his numbers intact.

12) Miguel Cabrera – I like the batting average, but his power is less than the other first basemen ahead of him in the first round. Has also scored less than 100 runs in each of the last three seasons.

13) Jimmy Rollins – lack of power in 2009 in the first half and an unlucky BABIP killed his value. No reason for him not to bounce back in 2010. Hard to find shortstops that will score 115+ runs with 20+ home runs and 30+ stolen bases.

14) David Wright – high batting average plus his ability to rack up steals at third base still gives him value, even if he doesn’t hit 30 home runs again. I would put his home run total between 2008 and 2009 levels and consider anything above that as gravy.

15) Troy Tulowitzki – position scarcity plus power and speed make him an attractive option at the end of the first round. Needs to improve his stolen base success rate though if he is going to be allowed to keep running. Hit 90 points higher the second half of the season in 2009.

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2010 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 24th, 2010

It always makes me laugh when a magazine or website reveals their list of 2010 fantasy baseball sleepers and it has names like Carlos Gonzalez, or Carlos Quentin or Billy Butler on it. Those my friends are not sleepers. Those are players that someone might expect to have a breakout season or someone that was injured last year and is expected to bounce back.

To me, a sleeper is someone that does not have a lot of value heading into the season, or is in the minor leagues and will be up in the major leagues soon, or somebody that in an AL or NL only format is going to be able to help your team.

With that in mind, as your fantasy baseball draft or auction winds down, here are some names to keep in mind as the best 2010 fantasy baseball sleepers by position.

C – Jason Castro (Astros) – only has Humberto Quintero in front of him and the Astros need all of the offense they can get. Reached Double-A last season and it would be quite jump for him to reach the major leagues. However, holds a .295 career minor league batting average with good plate discipline (77 walks to 108 strikeouts). Struggled in the Arizona Fall League hitting .143 in 42 at bats.

1B – Logan Morrison (Marlins) – like Castro, Morrison played in Double-A last year. Suffered a fracture in his right wrist in 2009 which limited his at bats to 278. Has great plate discipline as he walked 17 more times than he struck out. Power still needs to develop, but with the budget conscious Marlins, he has a chance to open the year at first base. Could put up similar stats to James Loney of 2009.

2B – Chris Getz (Royals) - was traded to Kansas City along with Josh Fields for Mark Teahen in the off season. Royals general manager Dayton Moore has already gone on record saying there could eventually be a trade with the depth they have in the infield which would open a starting role for Getz if that happened. Had 25 stolen bases in 375 at bats in 2009 so he is a good end game option in AL only leagues.

SS – Starlin Castro (Cubs) – this might be a little bit of a stretch but he has been drawing rave reviews in the minor leagues and handled himself well in the Arizona Fall League. With a weak link at second base, there is a slim chance that Castro could open the year at shortstop with Ryan Theriot moving to second base. Has a career .302 batting average with 34 steals in 665 at bats. Received a lot of playing time in the AFL and hit .376 with nine steals in 101 at bats.

3B – Chad Tracy (Cubs) – just another Aramis Ramirez shoulder injury away from getting 500+ at bats. Can also play first base so he should be able to get 250-300 at bats with the Cubs and has a little pop in his bat. Nice end game pick in NL only leagues.

OF- Jim Edmonds (Brewers) – an under the radar signing by the Milwaukee Brewers. Out of baseball last season and will be 40 in June, however he has a few things going for him. One, Carlos Gomez is in front of him and there is no guarantee he hits any better than he did with the Minnesota Twins. Two, if they fall into a platoon, Edmonds as the left-handed batter will get the majority of at bats. Slugged 19 home runs in 250 at bats with the Cubs in 2008.

SP- Felipe Paulino (Astros) - has the chance to grab the 5th starter spot from Brian Moehler. Has a nice strikeout rate but has been too inconsistent in the major leagues. Had a string of four solid starts in September in which he allowed 9 runs in 23 innings with 27 strikeouts, but then was bombed for eight runs in his last start of the month. Is an option in NL only leagues and  worth stashing on reserve for his strikeout upside.

SP – Hector Rondon (Indians) - the Indians rotation is a mess so it’s not like he has a bunch of stud pitchers to pass on the depth chart. Split time last season between Double-A and Triple-A. Has shown good control in the minor leagues with 1.9 walks per nine innings and eight strikeouts per nine. Even if he starts the year in Triple-A for more seasoning, he should not be down there too long. Turns 22 later this week.

RP – Kris Medlen (Braves) – made it to the major leagues before Tommy Hanson did last season. Once he arrived, he struggled as a starter and was then moved to the bullpen. He posted some nice numbers after the All-Star break with a 2.80 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with more than a strikeout per inning. Only a string of bad starts away by Kenshin Kawakami from moving into the rotation.

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2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Rising / Falling

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 23rd, 2010

With spring training here and new information coming out every day on players, let’s take a look at the 2010 fantasy baseball average draft position (ADP) to see which players are moving up or down on the draft board.

Rising:

Roy Halladay (27th overall) – ADP was 34 two weeks ago and I have seen him going as high as the late teens in recent drafts. With pitching going early this season, Halladay is getting bumped up closer to Tim Lincecum. If there is any pitcher that is going to get 20 or more wins this season, Halladay would be the favorite at this point.

Justin Morneau (39) – ADP is up five spots but he has been going higher as well in recent mock drafts. Concerns about his back and a potential for less power have seem to have been erased from fantasy owners minds.

Josh Johnson (72) – ADP is up 10 spots from two weeks ago. Looks like owners at the end of the fifth round are afraid he will not make it back on the turn in snake drafts and are pulling the trigger a little bit sooner to ensure they get him.

Clayton Kershaw (98) – ADP up 15 spots. Being pulled higher by the early drafting of the Tier 1 pitchers. Arguably the last solid number one starter for your fantasy baseball team depending how much faith you have in Cole Hamels or Ubaldo Jimenez going after him.

Matt Wieters (99) – ADP up 9 spots and he is coming close to falling into the overrated category if he goes any higher. I don’t see his upside that much greater than Miguel Montero or Jorge Posada whom you can get four rounds later in the draft.

Huston Street (143) – ADP up 18 spots as he is last closer going off the board before the remaining relief pitchers who all have question marks tied to them.

Brett Anderson (166) – ADP up 25 spots as people are buying into the hype being spouted by magazines and other websites calling him the breakout pitcher of 2010. No longer has the potential to value for you based on where he is currently going in drafts.

James Loney (184) ADP up 20 spots that has pushed him up the first base rankings ahead of Adam LaRoche, Todd Helton and Paul Konerko. Combination of batting average plus I think people are hoping for an increase in power which I don’t see happening.

Falling:

Alfonso Soriano (77) – ADP down five spots and there is a chance he goes later than this. There is lots of good talent still on the board at the start of the sixth round. His recent comments about his knee that he had surgery on being only 80-85% healthy has to cause some concern if you are planning to draft him.

Michael Bourn (79) – ADP is down 12 spots from two weeks ago. Nice to see that people are starting to realize his true value and are pushing him back to a more reasonable position in that draft, although the 79th spot is still much too high.

Vladimir Guerrero (138) – ADP down 16 spots. Still might have another good season in him, but it is hard to tie up your utility spot this early in the draft since he does not qualify at any other position.

Chris Davis (158) – ADP down 13 spots as people are still trying to decide which version of him are they going to get. It looks like right now owners are not buying into his performance after he came back from Triple-A at the end of the 2009 season.

Jack Cust (232) – ADP down 77 spots thanks to crowded Oakland A’s roster that will limit Cust’s at bats in 2010. Low batting average is also tough to take this late in the draft unless you planned on taking him and surrounded him with high average hitters.

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2010 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Trends

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 21st, 2010

After competing in several 2010 fantasy baseball mock drafts over the last few days, there are several trends that seem to be occurring that you need to be aware of as you prepare for your fantasy baseball league.

1) The top five seems to be locked in place with Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley and Ryan Braun. Every once in awhile Matt Kemp or Ryan Howard may jump in the top 5, but other than that, the top is pretty well set from draft to draft.

2) David Wright is starting to slowly creep back up draft boards. His original average draft position (ADP) had him going in the early second round of 15 team mixed drafts. In the drafts from this current weekend, he was consistently in the first round and went as high as 11th. I think the majority of people are willing to give him a pass on last season and expect his numbers to return to 2008 levels.

3) Pitching continues to go very high in drafts. By the end of round seven, almost every top tiered pitcher is off the board. The next pitchers being drafted usually include a group from Chad Billingsley, Matt Garza, Brandon Webb, Jered Weaver, and A.J. Burnett. If you are not comfortable with any one of those players being the first pitcher or second pitcher on your staff, you are going to have to plan on taking a pitcher a little bit earlier than you are accustomed to this season.

4) Relief pitchers are following the trend of starting pitchers and seem to be going higher than usual for the second group of 15 closers. In years past it seemed like you could maybe pick up a second closer that was still decent in rounds 13-15 or maybe even later. That no longer seems to be the case as the most dependable second 15 closers seem to be gone by the end of the 12th round, which is roughly the midway point of the draft. Once the 12th round is over, your options usually look like Brad Lidge, Kerry Wood, Octavio Dotel or taking a chance on the winner of the Toronto / Houston closer competition.

5) There has been one position that is showing a consistent “run” in a draft; that being the catcher position. It looks like the majority or owners have Kurt Suzuki, Jorge Posada, Miguel Montero, Russell Martin and Geovany Soto ranked relatively close because once one of that group is drafted, the others seem to follow shortly after.

The next group after that then is Bengie Molina, Chris Ianetta, Ryan Doumit and Mike Napoli. This gives you an idea of where the two runs are for the group of catchers because if you miss the first one, you might be able to get someone from the second group depending where your draft position is.

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2010 Fantasy Baseball Auction Leagues – Mixed Format

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 20th, 2010

Today we are going to take a look at some numbers for a 2010 fantasy baseball auction league in a mixed 15 team format. I use 15 teams as the standard with the increasing number of high stakes fantasy baseball leagues that continue to appear every year as the sport continues to grow.

One thing to keep in mind when looking at a magazine’s auction dollar values is you need to determine the league size. Some magazines will use 15 team, some use 12, or some only post dollar values for a AL or NL only type format. Be sure to read the fine print before using those dollar values in preparation for any draft you are doing.

You also need to factor in that some magazines use a dollar amount for what they think a player will earn. In a lot of cases, the player in a real auction will get bid higher than the amount in a magazine because of the position scarcity factor. For example, a player like Joe Mauer at catcher, his dollar value in a magazine for a 15 team league will be around $20, but his price in a real auction will be closer to $30. So you need to plan for that when you are doing your preparation.

Also, the majority of magazines use dollar values but they don’t equate to a real auction. If you are in a 15 team with 23 player rosters, then a total of 345 players and only 345 players need to have a dollar value and the maximum dollar value there can be assuming a $260 budget is $3,900 (15 x 260).

If you are looking for 15 team dollar values where the numbers are true to a real auction and add up to real numbers, you can get those in the next update to  the FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is on sale now. The new update will be sent out this Monday, 2/22 and is only available to those that purchase the draft guide.

Also in an auction, players with stolen bases tend to go for a few dollars more than players that don’t run. This means that just because player A goes higher than player B in a fantasy baseball draft, there is a good chance that if player B can steal bases, the price at an auction will push player B higher than player A.

So let’s take a look at some numbers from a 15 team mixed auction league from the NFBC last season. In the dollar range from $20 – $60, there were 60 players selected for a total of $1,759 which accounted for 45.3% of the total available auction dollar values.  The 60 players work out to a nice round number because if you convert that over to a draft, 15 teams by 60 players comes out to exactly four rounds. So give or take a player or two, the first four rounds of a 15 team draft will have all of the players in this dollar range.

In the next dollar range of $10-$19, there were 105 players selected for a total of $1,482. Again, from a draft standpoint, this converts perfectly to seven rounds of players. So right now we have a total player pool of 165 players taken (11 rounds) for $3,241.

In the dollar range of $1-$9, that leaves 180 players for a total of $638. You will notice if you add up all of the dollars, that comes out to $3,879 which means there were $21 left on the draft table that were never used.

Looking strictly at $1-$2 players, there were 86 players selected, or 5.7 players per team. Knowing this, you can plot out in advance of the draft what positions you are willing to take a dollar player at. Some people are willing to tank catchers and spend $1 each there (not a good idea!!), or go with two to three dollar starters or a couple of dollar outfielders. It is up to you on the strategy, but if you want to control the draft, it is best to plan for $2 per roster spot.

By leaving $2 per roster spot, you guarantee yourself of getting the players you want in the end game. For example, there were 55 players bought at $1 last year. When it comes down to the end of an auction, it turns into a draft at that point. Your team will be much better off if you are able to own players 1-4 in the final 55 by having $2 saved per position than by waiting for players with only $1 left which means if you are 8th in the auction order, you end up with player 8, 23, 38, 53.

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2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Closers

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 19th, 2010

This is the eighth article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for closers. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

Undervalued:

Chad Qualls looks undervalued to me as he is going in the last tier of closers. The dislocated kneecap that ended his season last August is supposed to be fully healed by spring training. He has always had good numbers with a career ERA of 3.32 and a 1.20 WHIP so I don’t see him imploding like some other closers will this season. If he had finished out the season, he would have been around 30 saves which would have tied him for 16th.

Overvalued:

It is not too often that 36-year-old relief pitchers suddenly morph into closers like Ryan Franklin did last season. His overall numbers look solid on the surface, but looking closer at the stats he had some woeful splits. His minuscule .79 ERA and .79 WHIP the first half turned into a 3.33 ERA and 1.70 after the All-Star break. Of more concern was his walk to strikeout ratio which was 1:1 during that time frame.

Brian Fuentes racked up 48 saves last season, but struggled in the second half with his control. ERA after the All-Star break was 4.81 with a 1.68 WHIP and he also recorded more walks that strikeouts. Batting average against jumped by 45 points and as an extreme fly ball pitcher, that makes him more susceptible to home runs in 2010 which would negatively impact his ERA.

12 Teams 15 Teams
Rank Name ADP Round Pick Round Pick
1 Jonathan Broxton 70 6 10 5 10
2 Joe Nathan 76 7 4 6 1
3 Jonathan Papelbon 71 6 11 5 11
4 Mariano Rivera 73 7 1 5 13
5 Joakim Soria 102 9 6 7 12
6 Francisco Rodriguez 87 8 3 6 12
7 Andrew Bailey 127 11 7 9 7
8 Heath Bell 103 9 7 7 13
9 Jose Valverde 137 12 5 10 2
10 Huston Street 149 13 5 10 14
11 Brian Wilson 143 12 11 10 8
12 Francisco Cordero 108 9 12 8 3
13 Billy Wagner 150 13 6 10 15
14 Rafael Soriano 157 14 1 11 7
15 Brian Fuentes 117 10 9 8 12
16 Trevor Hoffman 170 15 2 12 5
17 Frank Francisco 204 17 12 14 9
18 Mike Gonzalez 206 18 2 14 11
19 Chad Qualls 228 19 12 16 3
20 David Aardsma 156 13 12 11 6
21 Carlos Marmol 143 12 11 10 8
22 Bobby Jenks 163 14 7 11 13
23 Ryan Franklin 153 13 9 11 3
24 Kerry Wood 227 19 11 16 2
25 Brad Lidge 229 20 1 16 4
26 Matt Capps 234 20 6 16 9
27 Leo Nunez 242 21 2 17 2
28 Jason Frasor 264 22 12 18 9
29 Octavio Dotel 271 23 7 19 1
30 Brandon Lyon 261 22 9 18 6

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

  • Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
  • Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
  • Expanded player rankings for all positions
  • Ages for all players as of opening day
  • Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
  • The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
  • You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
  • Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Read More »

2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Starting Pitchers

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 18th, 2010

This is the seventh article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for starting pitchers. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

Undervalued:

I have Ryan Dempster 11 spots higher on my starting pitcher list than his current ADP ranking. Numbers from 2008 and 2009 were pretty close to the same except for a drop in wins and some regression to his ERA that was to be expected. Has a much better percent chance of striking out 175+, having an ERA under 3.7 and a WHIP under 1.3 than quite a few people that are currently being drafted ahead of him.

Gavin Floyd was a top prospect for the Philadelphia Phillies and one of the top 50 prospects in the minor leagues when he was coming up through the farm system. It took him a little over 170 innings at the major league level before finally settling into a groove so the struggles he encountered still have some people not giving him enough credit. Bumped up his strikeout rate 1.3 per nine last season and decreased his home run rate. ERA went up slightly only because of the ineffectiveness of the bullpen behind him.

Hiroki Kuroda is ranked 50th on my list and is 66th according to his current average draft position. Injuries kept his innings down in 2009 which might partially explain his current standing. But in the innings he did pitch, he improved his strikeout per nine ratio by a batter.

Overvalued:

Starting pitchers in general. Last year in the NFBC, there were only three pitchers drafted in the first 50 picks on average. Those were Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana and CC Sabathia. This season there are eight pitchers with a current fantasy baseball ADP in the top 50.

If you look at the top 15 pitchers based on where they were drafted in the NFBC last season, you could argue that half of them were busts or went too high, either based on injury or performance. Those would include Santana, Jake Peavy, Cole Hamels, Francisco Liriano, Roy Oswalt and John Lackey. Even though they did not have terrible seasons, you could add Chad Billingsley and James Shields to that list as well as their actual value turned out to be much lower than where they were drafted.

Cliff Lee seems to scream overvalued to me based on where he is going in fantasy baseball mock drafts. Moves back to the American League where his control was not as sharp as it was in the NL. Will see a drop in his strikeout rate and if his strand rate which was higher than average the last two seasons regresses, his ERA is going to jump as well. Now, I am not saying to stay away from him, just that there several better options than him when you are on the clock to make your draft choice.

As I wrote about Javier Vazquez in the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for pitchers, I just don’t see how he is being drafted as high as he is. The move back to the American League (drop in strikeouts, higher ERA and WHIP) coupled with the move to the Eastern division and playing in New York (4.91 ERA and 1.29 WHIP when last with Yankees) means there is some regression coming to his 2009 numbers. Remember that you should be drafting players based on what they will do in 2010 and not what they did last season. I still see way too many people doing that. There are variables every year that impact performance and you need to be able to take these into account when the information is available to you.

A.J. Burnett I have ranked as the 37th pitcher compared to his ADP that places him at 29. An ERA over 4, plus a WHIP that hit 1.40 last season combined with a past injury history makes me leery of grabbing him too high in a mixed league draft. If  you wait to draft starting pitchers and he is one of the top two pitchers on your team, you are going to need to surround with him low ratio pitchers so you don’t feel the full impact of his lack of control.

12 Teams 15 Teams
Rank Name ADP Round Pick Round Pick
1 Tim Lincecum 13 2 1 1 13
2 Roy Halladay 31 3 7 3 1
3 Dan Haren 41 4 5 3 11
4 Zack Greinke 31 3 7 3 1
5 Felix Hernandez 32 3 8 3 2
6 CC Sabathia 29 3 5 2 14
7 Justin Verlander 47 4 11 4 2
8 Johan Santana 46 4 10 4 1
9 Adam Wainwright 61 6 1 5 1
10 Josh Johnson 80 7 8 6 5
11 Jon Lester 62 6 2 5 2
12 Tommy Hanson 87 8 3 6 12
13 Chris Carpenter 81 7 9 6 6
14 Cliff Lee 56 5 8 4 11
15 Josh Beckett 86 8 2 6 11
16 Yovani Gallardo 98 9 2 7 8
17 Matt Cain 95 8 11 7 5
18 Cole Hamels 105 9 9 7 15
19 Jake Peavy 86 8 2 6 11
20 Ubaldo Jimenez 106 9 10 8 1
21 Clayton Kershaw 105 9 9 7 15
22 Javier Vazquez 63 6 3 5 3
23 Ricky Nolasco 111 10 3 8 6
24 Chad Billingsley 126 11 6 9 6
25 Wandy Rodriguez 122 11 2 9 2
26 Brandon Webb 142 12 10 10 7
27 Jair Jurrjens 140 12 8 10 5
28 Ryan Dempster 169 15 1 12 4
29 Brett Anderson 175 15 7 12 10
30 James Shields 133 12 1 9 13
31 Jered Weaver 139 12 7 10 4
32 John Lackey 128 11 8 9 8
33 Matt Garza 129 11 9 9 9
34 Scott Baker 158 14 2 11 8
35 Gavin Floyd 194 17 2 13 14
36 Max Scherzer 150 13 6 10 15
37 A.J. Burnett 132 11 12 9 12
38 Ted Lilly 156 13 12 11 6
39 Roy Oswalt 158 14 2 11 8
40 John Danks 168 14 12 12 3
41 David Price 185 16 5 13 5
42 Carlos Zambrano 171 15 3 12 6
43 Tim Hudson 219 19 3 15 9
44 Rich Harden 226 19 10 16 1
45 Clay Buchholz 211 18 7 15 1
46 Kevin Slowey 225 19 9 15 15
47 Scott Kazmir 185 16 5 13 5
48 Jonathan Sanchez 240 20 12 16 15
49 J.A. Happ 254 22 2 17 14
50 Hiroki Kuroda 261 22 9 18 6
51 Randy Wolf 193 17 1 13 13
52 Francisco Liriano 247 21 7 17 7
53 Johnny Cueto 239 20 11 16 14
54 Rick Porcello 222 19 6 15 12
55 Jorge de la Rosa 202 17 10 14 7
56 Daisuke Matsuzaka 203 17 11 14 8
57 Jeff Niemann 230 20 2 16 5
58 Ervin Santana 243 21 3 17 3
59 Mark Buehrle 248 21 8 17 8
60 Joe Blanton 283 24 7 19 13

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

  • Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
  • Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
  • Expanded player rankings for all positions
  • Ages for all players as of opening day
  • Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
  • The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
  • You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
  • Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the 2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP rankings will be closers.

Read More »

2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Outfield

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 17th, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the sixth article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for players in the outfield. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

Undervalued:

Juan Pierre is currently being selected after the majority of base stealers like Michael Bourn, Nyjer Morgan, Julio Borbon and Rajai Davis which is baffling to me. He has a proven track record in the major leagues and out of all the players on the list has the best chance of hitting .300, scoring 100 runs and stealing 50 bases. Each of the players going before him have questions that he does not carry. The only downside to him the last two years was his lack of playing time which will not be an issue in Chicago this year.

I like Nolan Reimold this season based on his current average draft position. His limited at bats upon arriving in the major leagues his suppressing his value this year it seems.  Hit .299 after the All-Star break in 187 at bats with 6 home runs, 22 RBI and 6 stolen bases. If you pro-rate that to 540 at bats, you are looking at a line of roughly 78 runs scored, 18 home runs, 66 RBI and 18 steals. I expect the RBI to be a little more than that and steals less, but he should still crack double digits.

Cody Ross, not a sexy pick, but is good value based on current ADP with the ability to get you 20-25 home runs late in the draft with 80-90 RBI.

Overvalued:

One dimensional speed demons. I wrote about this back in the article on 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for outfielders. It is not a good idea to take an outfielder as high as Michael Bourn that has value tied up mainly in one category. If your team goal is 180 stolen bases and you have him projected for 60, that accounts for 33% of your teams total. Any type of pulled hamstring or injured ankle and then your team is scrambling for stolen bases during the year. There is also a lot of fluctuation in stolen bases from year to year so 60 stolen bases for him last season might only be 50 in 2010.

I also mentioned when discussing Bourn that taking him that high weakens you are another position that has less depth than in the outfield. I would much rather have the choice to pick between an outfielder at the end of the draft where the talent pool is much deeper that having to take a scrub middle infielder. Then you are taking hit in multiple categories like home runs and RBI by rostering Bourn plus a scrub infielder late, than getting an infielder where Bourn is being drafted and then grabbing an outfielder to close out the draft.

You are much better off getting stolen bases in the first four rounds of the draft spread out between four players rather than have the risk of your speed tied to the legs of one individual.

Andrew McCutchen is an exciting young player but much like Joey Votto at first base, the expectations for 2010 are pushing him very high in mock drafts lately. Started out as a 9th round pick back in December and has steadily been moving up the ladder ever since. Current ADP is toward end of 6th round in a 15 team mixed draft and I would not be surprised to see him going at the end of the 4th round by the time the season starts.

You have to remember though just like in an auction format, your goal when drafting is to get the best value out of each pick. The higher in the draft he goes, the higher his stat line you are forecasting becomes.

12 Teams 15 Teams
Rank Name ADP Round Pick Round Pick
1 Ryan Braun 5 1 5 1 5
2 Matt Kemp 8 1 8 1 8
3 Matt Holliday 22 2 10 2 7
4 Jacoby Ellsbury 19 2 7 2 4
5 Carl Crawford 15 2 3 1 15
6 Jason Bay 26 3 2 2 11
7 Justin Upton 28 3 4 2 13
8 Grady Sizemore 26 3 2 2 11
9 Jayson Werth 35 3 11 3 5
10 Nick Markakis 50 5 2 4 5
11 Adam Lind 44 4 8 3 14
12 Nelson Cruz 65 6 5 5 5
13 Curtis Granderson 52 5 4 4 7
14 Andre Ethier 68 6 8 5 8
15 Manny Ramirez 64 6 4 5 4
16 Adam Dunn 55 5 7 4 10
17 B.J. Upton 59 5 11 4 14
18 Carlos Lee 70 6 10 5 10
19 Shin-Soo Choo 69 6 9 5 9
20 Bobby Abreu 76 7 4 6 1
21 Alfonso Soriano 75 7 3 5 15
22 Shane Victorino 70 6 10 5 10
23 Josh Hamilton 54 5 6 4 9
24 Torii Hunter 93 8 9 7 3
25 Hunter Pence 86 8 2 6 11
26 Ichiro Suzuki 41 4 5 3 11
27 Andrew McCutchen 87 8 3 6 12
28 Nate McLouth 88 8 4 6 13
29 Denard Span 122 11 2 9 2
30 Jay Bruce 118 10 10 8 13
31 Alex Rios 107 9 11 8 2
32 Raul Ibanez 95 8 11 7 5
33 Carlos Quentin 103 9 7 7 13
34 Johnny Damon 118 10 10 8 13
35 Jason Kubel 115 10 7 8 10
36 Adam Jones 88 8 4 6 13
37 Carlos Gonzalez 121 11 1 9 1
38 Nolan Reimold 201 17 9 14 6
39 Brad Hawpe 114 10 6 8 9
40 Carlos Beltran 89 8 5 6 14
41 Garrett Jones 152 13 8 11 2
42 Michael Cuddyer 116 10 8 8 11
43 Ryan Ludwick 192 16 12 13 12
44 Juan Pierre 205 18 1 14 10
45 Chris Coghlan 212 18 8 15 2
46 Vernon Wells 185 16 5 13 5
47 Jermaine Dye 176 15 8 12 11
48 Corey Hart 178 15 10 12 13
49 Colby Rasmus 195 17 3 13 15
50 Nick Swisher 236 20 8 16 11
51 Cody Ross 264 22 12 18 9
52 Michael Bourn 75 7 3 5 15
53 Nyjer Morgan 129 11 9 9 9
54 Rajai Davis 165 14 9 11 15
55 Julio Borbon 187 16 7 13 7
56 Juan Rivera 179 15 11 12 14
57 Josh Willingham 222 19 6 15 12
58 Franklin Gutierrez 241 21 1 17 1
59 Mike Cameron 227 19 11 16 2
60 Travis Snider 224 19 8 15 14

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

  • Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
  • Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
  • Expanded player rankings for all positions
  • Ages for all players as of opening day
  • Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
  • The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
  • You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
  • Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the 2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP rankings will be starting pitchers.

Read More »

2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Third Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 16th, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the fifth article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for players at third base. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

Undervalued:

Kevin Kouzmanoff at pick 271 0verall looks like great value now that he is away from Petco Park. He hit only .200 at home vs. 287 on the road in 2009. He should also see a boost in runs scored now playing in the American League as well.

If I am picking at the end of the 4th round of a 15 team mixed league, I would be ecstatic if Aramis Ramirez was still on the draft board. It was just a year ago that he was a pick at the end of the second or early third round. He should be at 100% after dealing with shoulder issues all season in 2009 and there is no reason for him not to hit 25+ home runs with a batting average in the .290 to .300 range.

Overvalued:

I love Chipper Jones as a player, but his current average draft position seems too high. Looks to be partly because of the drop off in talent at third base that Jones is getting selected at his current ADP combined with the fact people automatically assume Jones is going to bounce back to hitting over .300 again this season. He turns 38 at the end of April and with the nagging injuries he is now encountering, I think there are much safer options much later in the draft, than to risk an 8th or 9th round pick on him.

12 Teams 15 Teams
Rank Name ADP Round Pick Round Pick
1 Rodriguez, Alex 3 1 3 1 3
2 Longoria, Evan 10 1 10 1 10
3 Wright, David 14 2 2 1 14
4 Reynolds, Mark 20 2 8 2 5
5 Zimmerman, Ryan 36 3 12 3 6
6 Sandoval, Pablo 41 4 5 3 11
7 Ramirez, Aramis 63 6 3 5 3
8 Figgins, Chone 82 7 10 6 7
9 Young, Michael 91 8 7 7 1
10 Beckham, Gordon 92 8 8 7 2
11 Stewart, Ian 134 12 2 9 14
12 Beltre, Adrian 182 16 2 13 2
13 Gordon, Alex 211 18 7 15 1
14 Cantu, Jorge 171 15 3 12 6
15 Jones, Chipper 133 12 1 9 13
16 Kouzmanoff, Kevin 271 23 7 19 1
17 McGehee, Casey 216 18 12 15 6
18 Blake, Casey 226 19 10 16 1
19 Peralta, Jhonny 204 17 12 14 9
20 Headley, Chase 233 20 5 16 8

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

  • Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
  • Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
  • Expanded player rankings for all positions
  • Ages for all players as of opening day
  • Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
  • The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
  • You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
  • Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the 2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP rankings will be outfielders.

Read More »

FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is Now Available !!!

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 15th, 2010

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!


The Draft Guide includes the following:

  • Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
  • Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
  • Expanded player rankings for all positions
  • Ages for all players as of opening day
  • Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
  • The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
  • You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
  • Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

This is the best money you will ever spend for fantasy baseball. Order the draft guide now and start reaping the rewards!!!


Read More »

2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Shortstops

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 13th, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the fourth article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for players at shortstop. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

Undervalued:

J.J Hardy is currently going off the board as the number 19 shortstop which is too low in my eyes. He had some issues last season like the increase in strikeouts and being demoted to Triple-A. But don’t fall into the trap that many fantasy baseball owners do. You are not drafting him based on last years performance, but are selecting him based on his future performance in 2010. If he hits second in the batting order after Denard Span and Joe Mauer, he is going to get pitches to hit and is going to score more runs that he would have in the National League.

Everth Cabrera / Alcides Escobar are undervalued depending on the makeup of your team. If you are short on stolen bases midway through the draft, you could wait on Elvis Andrus and grab Cabrera or Escobar several rounds later. Cabrera will get you more steals and Escobar will have fewer steals but a higher batting average between the two.

Overvalued:

People seem to be looking at Rafael Furcal as if it were still 2006. His days of 20-30 steals are over with his recent back problems. If you are going to take a shortstop at the spot in the draft where he is currently going, you need someone that performs much better in home runs and RBI or steals more bases than what Furcal is going to give you.

12 Teams 15 Teams
Rank Name ADP Round Pick Round Pick
1 Hanley Ramirez 1 1 1 1 1
2 Jimmy Rollins 21 2 9 2 6
3 Troy Tulowitzki 17 2 5 2 2
4 Jose Reyes 23 2 11 2 8
5 Derek Jeter 51 5 3 4 6
6 Alexei Ramirez 105 9 9 7 15
7 Miguel Tejada 142 12 10 10 7
8 Jason Bartlett 104 9 8 7 14
9 Asdrubal Cabrera 155 13 11 11 5
10 Elvis Andrus 160 14 4 11 10
11 Yunel Escobar 151 13 7 11 1
12 Stephen Drew 113 10 5 8 8
13 J.J. Hardy 247 21 7 17 7
14 Everth Cabrera 223 19 7 15 13
15 Alcides Escobar 251 21 11 17 11
16 Rafael Furcal 131 11 11 9 11
17 Marco Scutaro 203 17 11 14 8
18 Erick Aybar 198 17 6 14 3
19 Ryan Theriot 238 20 10 16 13
20 Orlando Cabrera 187 16 7 13 7

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

  • Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
  • Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
  • Expanded player rankings for all positions
  • Ages for all players as of opening day
  • Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
  • The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
  • You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
  • Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the 2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP rankings will be third basemen.

Read More »

2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Second Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 12th, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the third article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for players at second base. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

Ben Zobrist looks to have good value based on where I have him ranked at compared to his average draft position. The position flexibility plus his ability to steal bases slots him ahead of Robinson Cano and Aaron Hill in my eyes.  Speaking of Hill, I think he is going to high in drafts in relation to Dan Uggla. The numbers I have projected for Uggla and Hill will be pretty close to the same outside of batting average which should not place them that far apart in the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for second base.

I think there is great value for Jose Lopez as well because he is not that far away from Hill and Uggla in terms of production. Kelly Johnson is primed for a bounce back season in Arizona and offers good value based on his current ADP. Orlando Hudson is the one player I see that is overvalued on the list as the 12th second basemen going off the draft board. He is solid across the board, but so is every player behind him at that point in the draft and he offers no upside to his numbers.

12 Teams 15 Teams
Rank Name ADP Round Pick Round Pick
1 Utley, Chase 4 1 4 1 4
2 Kinsler, Ian 16 2 4 2 1
3 Phillips, Brandon 30 3 6 2 15
4 Pedroia, Dustin 38 4 2 3 8
5 Roberts, Brian 40 4 4 3 10
6 Zobrist, Ben 59 5 11 4 14
7 Cano, Robinson 47 4 11 4 2
8 Hill, Aaron 48 4 12 4 3
9 Uggla, Dan 85 8 1 6 10
10 Lopez, Jose 120 10 12 8 15
11 Kendrick, Howie 134 12 2 9 14
12 Weeks, Rickie 192 16 12 13 12
13 Johnson, Kelly 280 24 4 19 10
14 Barmes, Clint 270 23 6 18 15
15 Polanco, Placido 243 21 3 17 3
16 Sizemore, Scott 249 21 9 17 9
17 Prado, Martin 245 21 5 17 5
18 Ellis, Mark 302 26 2 21 2
19 Hudson, Orlando 191 16 11 13 11
20 Lopez, Felipe 274 23 10 19 4

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

  • Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
  • Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
  • Expanded player rankings for all positions
  • Ages for all players as of opening day
  • Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
  • The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
  • You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
  • Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the 2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP rankings will be shortstops.

Read More »

2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – First Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 11th, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the second article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for players at first base. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

You can see from the grid below where the value drops off at first base, right after Billy Butler in round six or eight depending on the size of your league. There is then a seven to nine round gap before the next first basemen, Chris Davis, is selected. As mentioned in my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for first base, based on the current ADP I see Joey Votto and Chris Davis currently as overvalued with the players still left on the draft board where they are being selected.

Billy Butler keeps moving up in mock drafts to a point that he is almost overrated as well because you are now paying for last seasons numbers plus some improvement. People are discounting Lance Berkman because of his age and his injury in 2009, but to be able to get him at the end of the fourth round in a 15 team league gives him great value.

12 Teams 15 Teams
Rank Name ADP Round Pick Round Pick
1 Albert Pujols 1 1 1 1 1
2 Ryan Howard 11 1 11 1 11
3 Mark Teixeira 7 1 7 1 7
4 Prince Fielder 9 1 9 1 9
5 Miguel Cabrera 10 1 10 1 10
6 Lance Berkman 57 5 9 4 12
7 Joey Votto 29 3 5 2 14
8 Kevin Youkilis 33 3 9 3 3
9 Justin Morneau 44 4 8 3 14
10 Adrian Gonzalez 32 3 8 3 2
11 Carlos Pena 75 7 3 5 15
12 Kendry Morales 54 5 6 4 9
13 Derrek Lee 85 8 1 6 10
14 Billy Butler 86 8 2 6 11
15 James Loney 205 18 1 14 10
16 Paul Konerko 201 17 9 14 6
17 Chris Davis 145 13 1 10 10
18 Adam LaRoche 194 17 2 13 14
19 Todd Helton 195 17 3 13 15
20 Aubrey Huff 287 24 11 20 2

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

  • Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
  • Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
  • Expanded player rankings for all positions
  • Ages for all players as of opening day
  • Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
  • The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
  • You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
  • Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the 2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP rankings will be second basemen.

Read More »

2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Catchers

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 10th, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the first article in the series looking at the current 2010 fantasy baseball ADP (average draft position) for catchers. The data uses ADP numbers from Mock Draft Central using the NFBC scoring system.

I have played in the NFBC before and it has some of the best fantasy baseball owners in the industry so I find the ADP numbers to be much more accurate.  The NFBC has no trade leagues with 15 owners per league and standard fantasy baseball categories. The only difference in regards to roster size compared to some other fantasy baseball leagues is the use of two catchers.

The chart below lists players arranged by my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings with the current ADP broken down by where that player would fall in a 12 or 15 team league by round and pick. The one caveat being that the 12 team numbers may be skewed slightly as some players may go later than others due to the larger player pool to pick from.

Also, position scarcity becomes much greater the larger your fantasy baseball league is. So in a 15 team league, the value of catcher is going to be much higher than in a 10 team league because there are more options to pick from. However, this does not mean you should pass on a catcher for a similar ranked outfielder even in a 10 team league. While there are many ways to win a fantasy baseball league, having the top player at a weak position regardless of league size is going to give you a step up on your competition.

If you agree with my rankings, or even if you use the grid and replace them with your own, it is easy to quickly get a look at where there is potential value. For instance in the chart below, Chris Ianetta has an ADP of 5 rounds higher than A.J. Pierzynski. With the possibility of a time share in Colorado and the downside to average the Ianetta brings, I don’t see there being a five round gap in value there.

12 Teams 15 Teams
Rank Name ADP Round Pick Round Pick
1 Joe Mauer 14 2 2 1 14
2 Victor Martinez 25 3 1 2 10
3 Brian McCann 43 4 7 3 13
4 Matt Wieters 108 9 12 8 3
5 Jorge Posada 121 11 1 9 1
6 Geovany Soto 131 11 11 9 11
7 Miguel Montero 139 12 7 10 4
8 Russell Martin 147 13 3 10 12
9 Kurt Suzuki 151 13 7 11 1
10 Bengie Molina 159 14 3 11 9
11 Mike Napoli 172 15 4 12 7
12 Ryan Doumit 191 16 11 13 11
13 A.J. Pierzynski 235 20 7 16 10
14 Chris Iannetta 173 15 5 12 8
15 Yadier Molina 222 19 6 15 12
16 Carlos Ruiz 281 24 5 19 11
17 John Baker 280 24 4 19 10
18 Nick Hundley 336 28 12 23 6
19 Kelly Shoppach 337 29 1 23 7
20 Ramon Hernandez 334 28 10 23 4

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

  • Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
  • Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
  • Expanded player rankings for all positions
  • Ages for all players as of opening day
  • Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
  • The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
  • You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
  • Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the 2010 Fantasy Baseball ADP rankings will be first basemen.

Read More »

2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Starting Pitcher strikeouts

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 9th, 2010

by Todd Lammi

One of the things I look at when I am doing the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for pitchers is strikeouts. While I use that category in conjunction with several others, I think to pick one category and have it stand alone by itself, strikeouts are the most important.

The biggest reason is because strikeouts limit the damage to ERA numbers. Once the ball is hit and put in play, the pitcher becomes subjective to too many things out of his control. He has to worry about his defense being able to field the ball, the luck of where the ball is placed when hit, in addition to possibly giving up a home run which factors in the weather for the day as well as the dimensions of the ballpark among other things.

It also limits the ERA in respect to staying out of the big inning. If there is man on third base and as a pitcher you cannot afford to give up a hit anywhere on the diamond, be it fly ball or ground ball, you need to have the stuff to be able to bear down and strike out a hitter when needed.

With that said, here is a listing of the top starting pitchers from 2009 with the highest percentage of swing and miss strikes.

1) Rich Harden – 26%

2) Francisco Liriano – 20%

3) Jorge de la Rosa – 19%

4) Ryan Dempster – 19%

5) Jonathan Sanchez – 19%

6) Javier Vazquez – 19%

7) Chad Billingsley – 18%

8.) Neftali Feliz – 18%

9) Gio Gonzalez – 18%

10) Cole Hamels – 18%

11) Felix Hernandez – 18%

12) Mat Latos – 18%

13) Jon Lester – 18%

14) Tim Lincecum – 18%

15) Bud Norris – 18%

16) CC Sabathia – 18%

17) Justin Verlander – 18%

18) Clay Buchholz – 17%

19) Gavin Floyd – 17%

20) Tommy Hanson – 17%

I included Feliz assuming he will be a starting pitcher this year. Interesting to see a few rookies like Latos and Norris appear. Liriano in second position shows he still has good stuff, just a matter of his confidence improving. Two guys that people are discounting this season according to their fantasy baseball ADP are Hamels and Billingsley who are both on the list so I expect them to bounce back from seasons that were below expectations.

Take note that on Monday, 2/15 I will be releasing the FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide for just $9.99. It’s better than any magazine you will find on the stands because the information will be updated weekly up until Opening Day and the data will be in excel format so it will be easy to use. For that low price, you will get:

  • Over 450 player projections – easily sortable by league or position. Includes all player ages as of Opening Day.
  • All of the player notes that have been posted on the website as a quick cheat sheet to use during your draft.
  • Expanded player rankings for all positions.
  • A weekly article (that will not appear on the website) in regards to fantasy strategy for winning an auction or draft league.
  • An in-depth article on how to use the player projections. Player rankings and projections are great, but if they are not used correctly, you are not getting the most out of them.
  • Advice and guidance from someone that has been in the trenches and won leagues before. A lot of people writing articles or doing projections are just that, writers that have not been able to successfully win at fantasy baseball. In the 20 years that I have been playing fantasy baseball, I have won draft and auction leagues in multiple formats and can relate that information to you the reader.
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2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Closers (Part II)

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 8th, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the second part of the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the  group of closers ranked 16-30.

16) Trevor Hoffman – had his lowest ERA since 1998 so you know there is some regression coming. ERA and WHIP ratio aided by his improvement against left-handed hitters, holding them to a .222 average compared to .291 in 2008.

17) Frank Francisco – first season as full-time closer was a success outside of two trips to the disabled list which seemed to impact his second half numbers. Had a 2.28 ERA and .94 WHIP ratio the first half of the season. After the All-Star break, the ERA was 5.82 and the WHIP was 1.34.

18) Mike Gonzalez – had career high in innings pitched last season after coming back from Tommy John surgery in 2008. No doubt he can get the job done with a career ERA of 2.57 and 1.22 WHIP ratio. Question will always be how many innings does he get in before he gets hurt, with time on the disabled list four of the past five seasons.

19) Chad Qualls – good value based on his current fantasy baseball ADP. Knee ligament tear that ended his season in ’09 should not affect him in 2010. High ground ball rate plus good control means he should be solid as closer going forward.

20) David Aardsma – solid season on paper but I have some concerns going forward. High fly ball rate of 54% last season yet cut his home run per fly ball rate in half. If that regresses to the mean in 2010, his ERA jumps into the high three’s. Still has issues with command, walking 4.3 hitters per nine innings last year. Career WHIP ratio in the major leagues is 1.49.

21) Carlos Marmol – extremely hard to hit, but his inability to throw strikes makes his job as a closer far from safe. Walk rate jumped to 7.9 per nine innings last season, up from 4.2 in 2008. Like Aarsdma, Marmol is a fly ball pitcher and faces regression in his ERA after allowing only two home runs in 74 innings last year.

22) Bobby Jenks – ERA spiked due to nine home runs allowed after giving up 10 the last three seasons combined. Has been easier to hit the last two years with batting average against of .198 in 2007 rising to .230 in ’08 and to .250 last year. Questions about him are always going to revolve around his ablity to stay in shape.

23) Ryan Franklin – helped his ERA by allowing only two home runs after giving up 10 in 2008. Luck ran out after the All-Star break when his ERA was 3.33 and WHIP ratio was 1.70. Blew three of six saves in September.

24) Kerry Wood – first season in the American League did not go well for Wood as his home runs allowed more than doubled from the previous season and his control reverted back to 2007 level. Was much better the second half of the season with a 2.96 ERA and 1.32 WHIP ratio.

25) Brad Lidge – two seasons of extremes when looking at 2008 and 2009. Blew 11 saves last season after going a perfect 41 for 41 in 2008. Allowed 11 home runs and batting average against jumped to .301. Had surgery on his elbow in November and on his knee in January so it is questionable whether he will be ready for the start of the season. Possible that his knee injruy that bothered him in April and landed him on the disabled list in June was responsible for some of his issues last season.

26) Matt Capps – another closer who saw his home run total jump in 2010. After allowing five home runs in ’08, Capps gave up 10 in 2009. Walk rate also increased, allowing 2.8 walks per nine innings after walking only five batters in 53 2/3 innings in 2008. With only a one year contract with the Washington Nationals, there is a good chance that he gets moved at the trade deadline.

27) Leo Nunez – took the closer job away from Matt Lindstrom, but encountered some problems with the long ball, surrendering 13 home runs in 68 2/3 innings. Walk rate increased for the second straight season which offset his improvement in batting average allowed.

The following teams have multiple players in a battle for the closer position. The closer will most likely be determined at some point during spring training.

28) Toronto Blue Jays – Jason Frasor, Scott Downs, Kevin Gregg

29) Houston Astros – Brandon Lyon, Matt Lindstrom

30) Pittsburgh Pirates – Octavio Dotel, Joel Hanrahan, Evan Meek

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

  • Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
  • Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
  • Expanded player rankings for all positions
  • Ages for all players as of opening day
  • Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
  • The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
  • You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
  • Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Read More »
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