Archive for January, 2010

2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Third Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on January 31st, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the fifth report in the series of our 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the position of third base. Third base looks to be the shallowest position this season with a strong top tier of players and not many players with real upside potential later in the draft.

Keep in mind the additional flexibility offered by players like Pablo Sandoval, Jorge Cantu, Mark DeRosa, Chase Headley, Jhonny Peralta, Mark Teahen, Garrett Atkins and Jake Fox as they all qualify at two or more positions. If I have two players that are rated close together, I will usually give the nod to the player that qualifies at two positions to help manage my lineup during the season.

Let’s take a look at the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings to see where the value is.

1) Alex Rodriguez – the number three overall pick and locked in still as the number one third basemen. Did not start running until the second half of the season when he stole 11 of his 14 bases so he should steal closer to 20 bases in 2010.

2) Evan Longoria – reduced his strikeout rate by 3% in 2009. If he can make similar strides this season, the closer he gets to pushing his batting average toward .300. Should post low double digit steal totals this year.

3) David Wright – some people are still drafting him ahead of Longoria in fantasy baseball mock drafts this year which I think is a mistake. No one has been able to produce a solid reason for Wright’s huge drop in power going from 33 home runs to only 10 last season. Was lucky to hit over .300 with a huge 40%  hit rate which was four percentage points higher than his career high. Never seemed to find his swing all season as he had a seven percentage point increase in his strikeout rate. It could have been the result of the New York Mets new ballpark and Wright changed his batting approach to accommodate and / or all of the injury issues the Mets faced and the disappointing season affected him as well. Either way, I think it is prudent not to assume an automatic return to his 2008 stats.

4) Mark Reynolds – his 2010 fantasy baseball ADP has varied, from the beginning to the end of the second round in mixed league drafts. No chance for upside in batting average when he strikes out in 39% of his at bats. His strikeout rate has slightly increased the last two seasons so there is downside to his numbers. If hits .239 again as he did in 2008, that costs you approximately two to three points off your team’s batting average which means you need to offset him with high average hitters at other positions if you want to finish in the top three in the batting average category.

5) Ryan Zimmerman – rebounded from his torn labrum in 2008 and put up numbers similar to his 2007 season. Would be nice if he returned to his stolen bases total from 2006 but that is quibbling. For now, enjoy the four category performance that he provides.

6) Pablo Sandoval – qualifies at first base or third base. Should be a .300 hitter for the next 10 years or so. Power came quicker than expected as he blasted 25 home runs and 44 doubles at age 23. Hit over .300 every month last season except for July when he hit .298.

7) Aramis Ramirez – I have him ranked very close to Sandoval, but you know that Ramirez will some time during the season. Since 2002, he has had over 550 at bats in only 3 of 7 years. Missed time with a dislocated shoulder last season but should be fine to start 2010.

8.) Chone Figgins – has steadily raised his walk rate the past few seasons, giving him more times on base and opportunity for stolen bases. One negative though is his stolen base success rate has been slowly dropping the last five years, from 79%, 77%, 77%, 72% to 71% last season.

9) Michael Young – power spike at age 32 brought him back to 2005 levels, so expect some regression in 2010. Puts up nice stats because he consistently gets 630+ at bats ever year except last season. As a career .302 hitter, he is a good asset for team batting average.

10) Gordon Beckham – will provide extra flexibility the second or fourth week in the season with his move to second base this year, depending on you fantasy baseball league rules. Spent a total of 233 at bats in the minor leagues before coming up to the Show. Average should trend up as he adjusts to major league pitching.

11) Ian Stewart – legit power but still struggles to make contact. Career minor league batting average of .293 but has come no where close to that in the majors. Upped his strikeout rate to a Mark Reynolds-esque 40% after the All-Star break. Still struggles to hit left-handed pitching, batting a meager .178 last season. Recent addition of Melvin More means there could be a platoon in the works.

12) Adrian Beltre – multiple injuries ruined his 2009 season and sapped him of his power. I would use his 2005 numbers as the baseline with a few more steals sprinkled in.

13) Alex Gordon – still waiting for him to live up to the expectations based on his minor league performance but so far it has not happened. Even though he was limited by injuries last season, it was nice to see that he kept his 2008 gains in his walk rate. With hype now suppressed, he is finally being drafted where he should have been in years past.

14) Jorge Cantu – even though power has fluctuated, RBI total has remained consistent and should continue to do so in 2010. Improved performance against left-handed pitching has helped to boost his batting average.

15) Chipper Jones – age is finally catching him up with. Project him for 425 at bats and consider anything more as gravy.

16) Kevin Kouzmanoff – should enjoy being away from Petco Park where he hit under .230 each of the last two seasons. Will be interesting to see if he is able to adjust to the Oakland A’s patient approach at the plate after never walking more than 32 times in a season in the major leagues.

17) Casey McGehee – moved into the starting lineup in June and never looked back. Not the greatest player defensively, but neither is top prospect Mat Gamel so McGehee should be good for 500+ at bats this season. Offers the added flexibility of also qualifying at second base.

18) Casey Blake – not a sexy pick and he is old, but still gets the job done every year. Should be solid once again in 2010 for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

19) Jhonny Peralta -what happened to the power? Turned into a ground ball machine last year and the home runs disappeared. Should bounce back a little bit but probably not all the way to 20 home runs again.

20) Chase Headley – hit more home runs at home, but batted almost 100 points less. Should be able to add a few more home runs as he continues to develop.

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

  • Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
  • Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
  • Expanded player rankings for all positions
  • Ages for all players as of opening day
  • Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
  • The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
  • You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
  • Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the series for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be the top 20 outfielders.

Read More »

2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Shortstops

Posted by Todd Lammi on January 30th, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the fourth report in the series of our 2010 fantasy baseball rankings looking at the position of shortstop. If you miss out on one of the top tier shortstops early, your options in the middle to later in the draft will offer you the potential to pick up some players with stolen bases but not much power.

This position features quite a few question marks as we head into fantasy baseball draft season. Will Jose Reyes rebound from surgery and still be able to steal 50+ bases? Can J.J. Hardy bounce back in a new environment after being demoted to AAA last season? Does rookie Ian Desmond get the chance to start at shortstop or does he start the season in the minor leagues?

Those of some of the questions to consider as you prepare for key players to focus in on. Let’s take a look at the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings to see where the value is.

1) Hanley Ramirez – the number one shortstop and the number two pick overall in fantasy baseball drafts. The stolen bases are trending downward going from 50 to 35 to 27 the last three seasons but the five-category package at a hard position to fill solidifies his status as the second best  player.

2) Jimmy Rollins – even in an off year he still went 21-77-31. He gets 670+ at bats every year and will score a ton of runs in the Philadelphia Phillies batting order. There had to something wrong with him the first half of the season that was never reported with the stat line he put up. The numbers then returned to normal after the All-Star break as he went 14-43-15.

3) Troy Tulowitzki – much like Aaron Hill, he bounced back after a subpar 2008 and put up stats similar to his 2007 numbers.  His career 57% success rate stealing bases means he might not run as much going forward. His 20 steals last year were 13 higher than his previous best total

4) Jose Reyes – the boom or bust pick of the shortstop position. His current fantasy baseball ADP has him going at the middle-to-end of the second round making him a potential steal IF he returns to form, as he was a top 5 pick in fantasy baseball drafts in previous seasons. Coming back from surgery due to a torn tendon in his hamstring and he has had some hamstring issues in the past make him a risky pick. He will be worth watching closely in spring training to see how well he is running.

5) Derek Jeter – he must not have liked what he heard about his regressing defense after the 2008 season. His new workout in the off-season  I think played a part in him boosting his offensive numbers, coupled with a new stadium that is kind to hitters. Still showing no sign of slowing down at age 35.

6) Alexei Ramirez – solid numbers across the board in his second season as he improved his plate discipline from 18 walks and 61 strikeouts to 49  and 66 in 62 more at bats.

7) Miguel Tejada – showed no signs of easing up at age 35 and even boosted his numbers last year, adding eight doubles, 20 more RBI and tacking on an additional 30 points in batting average. Age, coupled with moving back to the American East where the division is stacked with good pitching should give Tejada’s numbers a slight decrease across the board.

8.) Jason Bartlett – where did the power come from? Went from a single home run in 2008 to 14 last year. A change in the batting order helped to account for the increase in numbers. Hit lead-off 218 times, where he hit half of  his home runs from after batting ninth in all of 2008.

9) Asdrubal Cabrera – provides added flexibility of qualifying at second base and shortstop. Look for continued growth in 2010; should be bumped up a few spots in dynasty leagues.

10) Elvis Andrus – wow, nice season as 21-year-old rookie where he put up similar numbers in both halves of the season.  When doing fantasy baseball projections, it is important to keep in mind position in the batting order as noted with Bartlett above. If Andrus ends up hitting second like he did part of the year in 2009, 40 stolen bases is a good possibility.

11) Yunel Escobar – the second best hitter in the Atlanta Braves lineup. Much more consistent in all categories than the next two players after him on my 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.

12) Stephen Drew – struggled out the gate with an injury and never made up ground. His 2009 numbers look pretty much the same as 2007. When  I hear the name Drew, I just think of missed at bats. Another player that gets drafted much higher than he should based on name and “potential”.

13) J.J. Hardy – there was no hot streak in 2009 to carry him like he had in 2008 and 2007. After spending the end of the of the season in the minor leagues and traded to the Minnesota Twins in the off-season, Hardy should see an improvement in numbers, especially if he gets slotted second in the batting order. Of some concern to note is his strikeout rate, which has crept up 7 percentage points over the last two years.

14) Everth Cabrera – quite a jump for Cabrera, going from a Rule-V pick that had never played above Single-A,  to a solid shortstop for the San Diego Padres. Has some defensive issues but the team should let him work through them. An outside shot to lead all the shortstops in steals depending on the health of Reyes.

15) Alcides Escobar -  handled himself quite well in 125 at bats with Milwaukee, batting .304 with four steals. No real power to speak of but should provide solid batting average and stolen bases in his first full season.

16) Rafael Furcal – another shortstop getting drafted much too high. His back surgery last July seems to have robbed him of his wheels. Without the 25+ steals, he is just another guy.

17) Marco Scutaro – not too often you see guys in their mid-30′s become full-time starters and parlay that into a nice payday. Should be good for another season of slightly reduced numbers now with the Boston Red Sox.

18) Erick Aybar – add up his numbers from 2007 and 2008 and presto, you have his 2009 year. He has decent speed, but unfortunately he has not learned to steal bases correctly yet, as evidenced by his 65% success rate in the minor leagues and 59% rate in the Show.

19) Ryan Theriot – no power, but he is nice to own if you are looking for stolen bases late in your fantasy baseball draft.

20) Orlando Cabrera – assuming he has a starting job.

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

  • Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
  • Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
  • Expanded player rankings for all positions
  • Ages for all players as of opening day
  • Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
  • The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
  • You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
  • Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the series for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be third basemen.

Read More »

2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Second Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on January 29th, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the third report in the series of fantasy baseball rankings looking at the position of second base. In 2010, second base and third base seem to be two of the thinnest positions to draft from. After the top 10 second basemen are off the board, there are some questions associated with quite a few of the players from that point forward.

Your best bet is to make sure you have secured a second basemen early in your fantasy baseball draft and not be worried about looking through the waiver wire during the course of the season because your player has either lost his job or is under performing.

Let’s take a look at the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings to see how the position stacks up.

1) Chase Utley – it was another solid season for Utley in 2009 as he stole a career-high 23 stolen bases. ADP has him as high as number three and as low as seven so if you are picking after the middle of the first round, don’t expect to see him sliding to you.

2) Ian Kinsler – he was the only 30-30 player in all of baseball last season. Home runs took a big jump as he raised his fly ball percentage 11 points. Batting average and his propensity to get injured are the two things that have him teetering on the edge of a first round status in fantasy baseball drafts.

3) Brandon Phillips – a lock for a 20/20 season in 2010 and this is the year he should break 100 RBI for the first time in his career with an improved lineup around him.

4) Dustin Pedroia – I have him rated very close to Phillips. Pedroia offers more runs scored and a better chance for a .300 batting average compared to the extra power and a few more steals that Phillips brings to the table.

5) Brian Roberts – the stolen bases are dropping each year he gets older, going from 50 in 2007 to 40 in 2008 and 30 last fantasy baseball season. Still should be good for 25-30 for another season or two.

6) Ben Zobrist – took advantage of injuries last season and became of one of the hottest free agent pickups of the season. Provides the extra flexibility of qualifying in the outfield in the 2010 fantasy baseball season. The stolen bases are not a surprise as much because Tampa Bay is a running team. I would expect some regression in his power numbers. In 1,330+ minor league at bats, he had a total of 23 home runs.

7) Robinson Cano – his new stadium helps the power numbers as a left-handed hitter although his splits were close in 2009 with 14 home runs at home and 11 on the road. Was consistent every month last year, hitting at least .270+ with three or more home runs.

8.) Aaron Hill – turned in a magical age 27 fantasy baseball season last year, by more than doubling him home run output from 2007. Turned some of those 47 doubles from ’07 into more home runs in ’09. Don’t pay for 35+ home runs in 2010; project him for the 25-30 range and you will be much better off.

9) Dan Uggla – as consistent as they come at second base. You can annually pencil him in for 30 home runs and 90 RBI. Needs to improve against left-handed pitching to get his average back up, hitting in the low .200′s the previous two years against southpaws.

10) Jose Lopez – continued to grow last season as he bumped up his home run total for the third straight year. Second year of 40+ doubles and he increased his home run output by eight. He is a great value pick, going a full two rounds later than Uggla in fantasy baseball drafts.

11) Howie Kendrick -  continues to tease fantasy baseball owners by putting up some nice stats in 375 at bats. Was sent to the minor leagues for a stretch last season but came back on fire, hitting .358 with six home runs and 36 RBI in only 165 at bats after the All-Star break. Always is drafted much higher than what his value really is.

12) Rickie Weeks – was off to a strong start before a wrist injury and surgery ended his 2009 season. Much like Kendrick, Weeks’ numbers look enticing if you project him out to 600 at bats, but injuries have held him back through his short career. Power usually suffers the following season after wrist injuries so don’t pro-rate out his 2009 numbers as a new home run level for him.

13) Kelly Johnson – great value pick because he will go after another 5-10 players on my fantasy baseball rankings based on current ADP numbers. Unfortunately too many fantasy baseball owners focus just on previous season’s numbers when forecasting stats and don’t look at a player’s body of work as a whole. Yes, he he had a rough year last season and eventually lost his job, thanks in part to some bad luck as evidenced by a nine percentage point drop in his hit rate last season. With the change of scenery to Arizona, look for him to return to his 2008 level.

14) Clint Barmes – doubled his home runs totals in 2009 as he swung for the fences. Strikeout rate has increased by a total of eight percentage points over the last two years as he looks for the long ball. Still should be good for another year of double digit home runs and stolen bases.

15) Placido Polanco – pretty stable numbers year-to-year which should continue with the high powered Philadelphia Phillies lineup. Will qualify at third base around the second to fourth week of the season depending on the position eligibility rules of your fantasy baseball league.

16) Scott Sizemore – heads into spring training as the starting second basemen for the Detroit Tigers. Should be good for double digit home runs and steals in his rookie season.

17) Martin Prado – qualifies at second base, shortstop and third base. Took over as the starting second basemen and never looked back last year. Nice to have as a middle infielder to support batting average. Prado holds a career batting avergae of .300 in the minor leagues and .307 in the Show.

18) Mark Ellis – should be able to reach double-digit home runs and steals assuming he can muster 450 at bats. In the last year of his contract with a club option for next season, there is a chance he could be dealt at the trade deadline if Oakland is out of the race.

19) Orlando Hudson – currently a free agent but should have a starting job by the time spring training starts. Does not stand out in any one category but is pretty solid across the board

20) Felipe Lopez – see Orlando Hudson

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

  • Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
  • Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
  • Expanded player rankings for all positions
  • Ages for all players as of opening day
  • Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
  • The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
  • You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
  • Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the series for 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be shortstops.

Read More »

2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – First Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on January 27th, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the second in our series of fantasy baseball rankings looking at the position of first base. There is some good depth at this position with the added flexibility of guys like Victor Martinez, Kevin Youkilis, Pablo Sandoval, Jorge Cantu and Garrett Jones.

There are really two clusters or tiers of players in the first six rounds or so of mixed league drafts. The key will be picking out the player that performs above the others in that group to give you the best chance of winning your fantasy baseball league.

With that said, let’s take a look at the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for first base in 2010.

1) Albert Pujols – owners that picked Pujols first last season got an extra bonus with an additional 10 home runs and nine stolen bases compared to the previous year. Pujols has been chosen as the number one pick in all 33 NFBC scoring fantasy baseball drafts at Mock Draft Central so far this year.

2) Ryan Howard – this is great in two cases for people picking at the end of the first round in fantasy baseball drafts. One is you will most likely get the chance to draft Howard if you want him, as the current ADP has him as the fifth first basemen. Secondly, if you get him, you are getting a player with more value than the players drafted in front of him.

3) Mark Teixeira – should put up similar numbers to 2009 as he enjoyed the benefit of the new Yankees’ stadium, hitting 24 home runs vs. 15 on the road and a healthy Alex Rodriguez in the lineup for the entire season.

4) Prince Fielder – had a monster 2009 season that puts him in the first round of fantasy baseball drafts this season. Has not been distracted by his big potential pay day looming after 2011 or the possibility of the Milwaukee Brewers potentially trading him this season or next.

5) Miguel Cabrera – he turns the fantasy baseball magical age of 27 in April. Whether he continues his consistent numbers of years past is in some question after recently admitting to undergoing alcohol abuse treatment.

6) Lance Berkman – Berkman is much in the same boat as Howard. Berkman’s ADP is lower than several players below him, yet I expect him to have more value. People are discounting Berkman because of his injury and age, but he is one of the few first baseman than can get you .300-90-30-100-10 and last year was his first year on the disabled list since 2005.

7) Joey Votto – lots of people are on the Votto bandwagon this season as his current ADP has him as the 6th best first basemen and going in the second round in most mixed league fantasy baseball drafts. The only problem with  owners picking him as high as the second round means people are projecting him at around .290-30-100-8 which is somewhat of a leap of faith. If he falls short of those numbers, you have now lost in terms of value with your pick in the second round.

8.) Kevin Youkilis – offers the added flexibility of qualifying at third base in 2010. I have him ranked just ahead of Justin Morneau due to the injury concerns and the fact Youkilis hits in a better lineup.

9) Justin Morneau – carries a little risk coming off two injuries that can affect power hitters, with wrist surgery and a stress fracture in his vertebrae occurring at the end of the season.

10) Adrian Gonzalez – had 64 less at bats last season due to a huge increase in walks and still managed to hit more home runs. Only negatives are the lineup he plays in limits his RBI total and he has hit over .300 only one time in his career. He gets a bump in value once / if he is traded by the San Diego Padres. Gonzalez hit 28 home runs on the road last season and only 12 at home.

11) Carlos Pena – depends on how bad you want the power and if your team can absorb the batting average when choosing between Pena and Kendry Morales. Hurt by a 44 point drop in batting average against right-handed pitching last year. Expect a slight rebound and that his overall batting average is back in the .240 range.

12) Kendry Morales – had a fantasy baseball breakout year in 2009, finally get a full season of at bats. If you are a big believer in second-half stats providing growth for the following year, go the extra dollar on him in an auction format. Morales hit .330 after the break vs. 284 with four more home runs and 10 more RBI in 32 less at bats.

13) Derrek Lee -  entered the time machine and went back to his 2005 levels in 2009. Now at age 34, don’t expect a repeat this year, there will be some regression likely. Take note that although the power came back, the stolen bases did not so keep the projections realistic.

14) Billy Butler – it seems like he has been around for quite a few years without fulfilling the high expectations from his minor league numbers, but the fact is he turns just 24 in April of this year. Turned up the power in a big way in 2009 with 21 home runs and 51 doubles!. If you have played fantasy baseball before, you know that eventually some of those doubles will turn into home runs as he continues to fill out. This might be the last year you can get him cheap.

15) James Loney – improved at the plate in 2009, taking an additional 25 walks while cutting his strikeouts by 17. But unless your fantasy baseball league uses on base percentage as a category, he isn’t as valuable.  His 15 home runs in only 344 at bats in 2007 are now the outlier.

16) Paul Konerko – another fork in the road during the fantasy baseball draft, whether you want Konerko, Chris Davis or Adam LaRoche who I have grouped in the same tier. Approaching his mid 30′s now, you pretty much know what you are going to get with Konerko. His 2009 stats were in line with his 2007 numbers.

17) Chris Davis – really depends on how much risk you like to take in your fantasy baseball drafts whether you want to roll the dice on him. People that want him will look at his 93 at bats in September when he hit .290 after his demotion to the minor leagues. People that stay away will look at his 38% strikeout rate and say there is no way he keeps a job. The power is legit; whether he can hold on to the job is another question, especially with top prospect Justin Smoak already in AAA.

18) Adam LaRoche – you can pencil him in for 70 runs scored, 25 home runs and 85 RBI every year it seems. If you draft him, understand the history. He is a slow starter and puts up much better numbers in the second half every season. If you own him, don’t dump him cheap at the All-Star break.

19) Todd Helton – was able to control his back condition last season and got 544 at bats. Still carries a little bit of risk to miss time, but is a decent corner infielder to own to help boost your fantasy baseball team’s batting average.

20) Aubrey Huff – should be good for 15-20 home runs and 80+ RBI as the clean up hitter for the San Francisco Giants.

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

  • Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
  • Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
  • Expanded player rankings for all positions
  • Ages for all players as of opening day
  • Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
  • The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
  • You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
  • Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the series for 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be second basemen.

Read More »

2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings – Catchers

Posted by Todd Lammi on January 26th, 2010

by Todd Lammi

This is the first series of our fantasy baseball rankings looking at the position of catcher. If you are playing in a mixed fantasy baseball league that only has one catcher spot, it is okay to wait toward the latter part of a draft or auction because there is some depth down to around 15 catchers or so. If, however, you are playing in a league that requires two catchers, or in an American League or National League only league, I would try to acquire good catchers rather than tanking the position with a lower stat player.

The reason being, during the fantasy baseball season, there are hardly ever rookie catchers that come up to the major leagues that are going to make an impact to your team that you could claim as a free agent. There are a lot more options at other positions where you will be able to claim free agents to improve your roster. Having a better catcher than the rest of the owners in your league gives you an advantage at that position, plus you will have the chance to improve your roster more at other positions through free agency.

The only caveat I will mention in mixed leagues with two catchers is how high do you want to draft a catcher. The only risk with drafting a catcher is the nicks and bumps they get throughout the season, catching for 150+ games, taking pitches off their body and collisions at home plate. While injuries can happen to any player, there is a better chance that catchers end up being a little more banged up throughout the season. A case in point is Geovany Soto last season, who put up about half the numbers most owners were expecting from him. In most leagues he was drafted in rounds 7-10 depending on the size of your fantasy baseball league, but in reality his value earned placed him in rounds 15-20.

With all that said, let’s take a look at the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for catchers.

1) Joe Mauer – he will be overrated this year. Yes, he is the best catcher so it may be heard to call him overrated, but he is going the first round in fantasy baseball drafts this year which is way too high. He had a magical year in 2009 hitting 19 more home runs that the previous season. I have to believe there is some power regression coming, down to the 20 home run range or possibly even lower.

2) Victor Martinez – the second best catcher and really not that far away from Joe Mauer, outside of the batting average. Martinez offers the added flexibility of being eligible at first base as well.

3) Brian McCann – would be neck and neck with Martinez if he played in the American League where his runs scored would be higher, but McCann is a solid number three catcher, ahead of the next tier of fantasy baseball catchers.

4) Matt Wieters – I have the next five of six catchers grouped really close to each other in Tier 4, but have Wieters on top for now based on his youth and upside. Probably is one year away from making the jump up to McCann’s level.

5) Jorge Posada – bounced back nicely from his injured 2008 season. Now 39, he has been amazingly consistent for the past 10 seasons, hitting 20 or more home runs every season outside of his injury year in 2008 and 2005 when he hit 19.

6) Geovany Soto – has lost 40 pounds in the off-season and should be ready to bounce back from his disappointing 2009 year. Despite the low batting average, if you project his at bats out to his 2008 totals, he still would have hit roughly 16 home runs and 71 RBI last year.

7) Miguel Montero – Montero was the fantasy baseball breakout at catcher in 2009. With Chris Snyder possibly being traded out of Arizona, Montero should see 500+ at bats this season.

8.) Russell Martin – there once was a catcher named Jason Kendall that used to be pretty good back in the day. At the age of 26, Kendall hit .320 with 14 home runs, 58 RBI and 22 stolen bases. After that season, Kendall’s stolen bases fell off to 13, 15, 8, 11, 8, 11. Martin looks like he may be on the same arc as Kendall’s, with two seasons of declining numbers in home runs and stolen bases. I think Martin is the fantasy baseball catcher of 2010 with the most upside / downside depending where is he drafted.  His current ADP (average draft position) is the 10th round in a 15-team mixed fantasy baseball league draft.

9) Kurt Suzuki – had solid improvement year-over-year, doubling his home run and RBI total in only 40 more at bats. He turned on the power after the All-Star break, hitting 10 home runs in 263 at bats. Could see more RBI in 2010 depending where he hits in the lineup. In 2009, he had over 100 at bats hitting second, third, fifth and sixth.

10) Bengie Molina – I have him 10th in my fantasy baseball rankings for now, as it looks like he will get the majority of at bats for the San Francisco Giants, pushing Buster Posey to AAA to start the season or to a backup with the major league team. Watch the situation in spring training for word from the Giants on where Posey will play. If they carry Posey on the big league club, I would think he would get maybe two starts per week which would cut 100 at bats from Molina’s stats from the season.

11) Mike Napoli – solid power, but limited at bats keeps his value in the middle of the fantasy baseball rankings at catcher. Got some extra bats (62) at DH last year with Vladimir Guerrero sidelined due to injury. Thanks to defensive issues, he will still share time with Jeff Mathis at catcher so project 325 at bats for Napoli at the high end this season.

12) Ryan Doumit -  another injury filled season for Doumit in 2009 as he put up stats similar to 2007 in comparable at bats. Will be 29 in April and only has one major league season of more than 400 at bats. Has the ability to put up good power numbers when healthy. The downside is the injury risk and the potential of being traded, as Doumit’s name was floated in trade talk during the winter.

13) A.J. Pierzynski – the most consistent fantasy baseball catcher you will find every season with little deviation in his numbers. He is in his final year of his contract and with prospect Tyler Flowers knocking on the door, there is an off chance A.J. could be traded during the season if the Chicago White Sox fall out of the race, so AL only owners take note.

14) Chris Iannetta – good power numbers in limited at bats, but the batting average takes a toll on your team numbers. Shared time with Yorvit Torrealba last season and could be in for more of the same with the recently signed Miguel Olivo so keep the at bat projections realistic.

15) Yadier Molina – continues to show gradual improvement at the plate and even threw in nine steals last season. A nice pick as a number two catcher for the batting average support. Upside is .300 with 10 home runs and 10 steals.

16) Carlos Ruiz – similar stats to what he produced in 2007. With the recent three-year contract extension and the trade of top prospect Lou Marson to Cleveland for Cliff Lee last year, Ruiz is locked in as the starter.

17) John Baker – I had Baker on my watch list last year and he came up with solid numbers in his first year as starter for the Florida Marlins. The platoon with Ronny Paulino keeps his limit to around 375 at bats so expect similar type fantasy baseball stats in 2010.

18) Nick Hundley – missed seven weeks last year due to injury which limited his at bats in 2009. If the San Diego Padres give him 400+ at bats this season, Hundley could hit 10-12 home runs with 45-50 RBI. The downside is the batting average which might be around .240.

19) Kelly Shoppach – lots of strikeouts, lots of power when he connects. Should see the majority of at bats ahead of Dioner Navarro for the Tampa Bay Rays.

20) Ramon Hernandez – a disappointing season in his first year in Cincinnati, but he has a full-time job and qualifies also at first base so things should be slightly better in 2010.

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

  • Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
  • Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
  • Expanded player rankings for all positions
  • Ages for all players as of opening day
  • Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
  • The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
  • You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
  • Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Next up in the series for 2010 fantasy baseball rankings will be first basemen.

Read More »

Fantasy Baseball 2010 – Multiposition Eligibility

Posted by Todd Lammi on January 25th, 2010

by Todd Lammi

Here is a list of all the Fantasy Baseball 2010 players with multiposition eligibility. This list is especially helpful for a number of reasons.

1) Players with multiposition eligibility have a little more value than a player at one position when comparing similar stats. For example, you may have Pablo Sandoval and Joey Votto in the same tier at first base, but the flexibility of having a guy that can play two positions slots Sandoval ahead of Votto then.

This becomes more critical playing in a one year league where injuries always happen. It also gives you more flexibility when grabbing a player from the free agent list the more ability you have to shift your lineup around to get your best counting stats in the lineup.

2) Players with multiposition ability have a better chance of getting playing time. This becomes important in larger leagues, 15-20 teams, or AL or NL only leagues. The ability of Omar Infante to to play three positions means he can get 300-400 at bats this year as a reserve, and he is someone that you can grab late or cheaper in an NL draft or auction league.

3) Multiposition players are a great source of end game picks in an auction format for AL or NL only leagues. Finding a player for $1 or $2 that can get you 300 to 400 at bats in a only league is of great value. If miss out on a position, say shortstop and you are scrambling for a player at the end of an auction, knowing you have three to five options available to choose from is better than knowing only the shortstop qualified players which might leave you stuck with a hitter that gets only 50 to 100 at bats.

Below is a list of all the Fantasy Baseball 2010 players that qualify at more than position, based on 10 games and 20 games.

Name 10 games 20 games
Garrett Atkins 1B, 3B 1B, 3B
Willy Aybar 1B, 2B, 3B 1B, 2B
Jeff Baker 2B, 3B 2B, 3B
Clint Barmes 2B, SS 2B
Jose Bautista 3B, OF 3B, OF
Ronnie Belliard 1B, 2B, 3B 2B
Andres Blanco 2B, SS 2B
Willie Bloomquist 2B, SS, OF SS, OF
Emilio Bonifacio SS, 3B, OF SS, 3B
Asdrubal Cabrera 2B, SS 2B, SS
Jorge Cantu 1B, 3B 1B, 3B
Jamey Carroll 2B, SS, OF 2B, SS
Juan Castro 2B, SS 2B, SS
Alex Cora 2B, SS SS
Chris Coste C, 1B C
Craig Counsell 2B, SS, 3B 2B, SS, 3B
Bobby Crosby 1B, 3B 1B, 3B
Michael Cuddyer 1B, OF 1B, OF
Mark DeRosa 1B, 3B, OF 3B, OF
Greg Dobbs 3B, OF none
Adam Dunn 1B, OF 1B, OF
Darin Erstad 1B, OF OF
Josh Fields 1B, 3B 3B
Mike Fontenot 2B, 3B 2B, 3B
Jake Fox 3B, OF 3B, OF
Alberto Gonzalez 2B, SS 2B, SS
Khalil Greene SS, 3B 3B
Jerry Hairston 2B, SS, 3B, OF SS, 3B, OF
Bill Hall 3B, OF 3B, OF
Jack Hannahan 1B, 3B 3B
Brendan Harris 2B, SS, 3B SS, 3B
Willie Harris 2B, OF OF
Chase Headley 3B, OF 3B, OF
Anderson Hernandez 2B, SS 2B, SS
Ramon Hernandez C, 1B C, 1B
Micah Hoffpauir 1B, OF 1B, OF
Omar Infante 2B, SS, 3B, OF 2B
Maicer Izturis 2B, SS 2B, SS
Garrett Jones 1B, OF 1B, OF
Adam Kennedy 2B, 3B 2B, 3B
Jeff Keppinger 2B, SS, 3B 2B, 3B
Mark Kotsay 1B, OF 1B, OF
Jose Lopez 1B, 2B 2B
Mark Loretta 1B, 3B 3B
Julio Lugo 2B, SS 2B, SS
Victor Martinez C, 1B C, 1B
Casey McGehee 2B, 3B 2B, 3B
Daniel Murphy 1B, OF 1B, OF
Jayson Nix 2B, SS, 3B 2B
Augie Ojeda 2B, SS, 3B 2B, SS, 3B
Ramiro Pena SS, 3B SS, 3B
Jhonny Peralta SS, 3B SS, 3B
Martin Prado 1B, 2B, 3B 1B, 2B, 3B
Nick Punto 2B, SS 2B, SS
Robb Quinlan 1B, OF OF
Mark Reynolds 1B, 3B 1B, 3B
Ryan Roberts 2B, 3B, OF 2B
Luis Rodriguez 2B, SS 2B, SS
Brendan Ryan 2B, SS SS
Pablo Sandoval 1B, 3B 1B, 3B
Ramon Santiago 2B, SS 2B, SS
Skip Schumaker 2B, OF 2B, OF
Ian Stewart 2B, 3B 2B, 3B
Nick Swisher 1B, OF 1B, OF
Fernando Tatis 1B, 3B, OF 1B, 3B, OF
Mark Teahan 1B, 3B, OF 3B, OF
Joe Thurston 2B, 3B 2B, 3B
Matt Tolbert 2B, 3B 2B, 3B
Juan Uribe 2B, SS, 3B 2B, SS, 3B
Luis Valbuena 2B, SS 2B, SS
Ramon Vazquez 2B, SS, 3B 2B, SS
Eugenio Velez 2B, OF 2B, OF
Omar Vizquel 2B, SS, 3B SS, 3B
Ty Wigginton 1B, 3B 1B, 3B
Kevin Youkilis 1B, 3B 1B, 3B
Delwyn Young 2B, OF 2B, OF
Ben Zorbist 2B, OF 2B, OF

The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is now available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.

The Draft Guide includes the following:

  • Projections in Excel for 480 players using the standard 5 x 5 fantasy baseball categories
  • Cheat sheets already set up to be printed out
  • Expanded player rankings for all positions
  • Ages for all players as of opening day
  • Word / PDF document that explains how to use the projections and some tips for some neat things to do in Excel.
  • The first article that will be only available to subscribers (and not posted on the website) for “how to win your fantasy baseball draft league”. This is a seven page document with 3,500 words of fantasy baseball goodness based on my 20 years of playing in fantasy baseball leagues.
  • You will also receive weekly reports every Monday that feature updates to rankings and a new article all the way up to opening day.
  • Support for any questions you have in regards to Excel to ensure you get the most out of the data.

Order now to get the information you need to dominate the competition!!!

Coming next in the Fantasy Baseball 2010 series will be a look at the fantasy baseball rankings by position for 2010.

Read More »

 

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