Archive for March, 2009

2009 Fantasy Baseball – News & Notes

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 30th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

A lot has been happening in the last few days around the major leagues, so let’s examine some of the stories and how they relate to fantasy baseball.

Closer watch - Kevin Gregg was named closer of the Chicago Cubs over Carlos Marmol. If you have an auction league this weekend, I still bid for Marmol and assume he will get his share of saves once Gregg falters. I see Marmol ending with around 20 saves and Gregg maybe 15. Tony Larussa confirmed that Jason Motte will see save save chances, but Motte has not been officially name the outright closer. Ryan Franklin should still see time in the ninth inning. Chris Perez was sent to AAA so you can scratch him from your draft sheet. Brandon Morrow has been moved into the closer role for the Seattle Mariners. That’s good for fantasy owners who spent many a sleepless night debating between the four to five other options the Mariners had. Trevor Hoffman will start the season on the disabled list for the Milwaukee Brewers with Carlos Villanueva filling in for the first week of the year. Joey Devine could be headed to the DL with tightness in his elbow bumping up the value of Brad Ziegler for saves.

Late round fliers AL / NL only leagues - I like Casey McGehee with the Milwaukee Brewers. I would be happy with the Brew Crew letting Bill Hall and Mike Lamb go and see what McGehee could do until Matt Gamel was ready. Livan Hernadez was named the New York Mets fifth starter. I don’t care what his numbers are in spring training, stay far, far away from him. Ross Ohlendorf has secured a spot in the Pittsburgh Pirates rotation, I would be willing to pay a $1 for him.

Position Battles – Brett Gardner was named the starting cetner fielder for the New York Yankees. Gardner has a chance to steal 30-35 bases this season. Speaking of speed, DeWayne Wise looks to have secured the starting center field job for the Chicago White Sox and will be the lead off hitter. I don’t expect that to last for more than two months of the season. In the meantime, enjoy a few stolen bases while Wise is in the lineup.

Rookie Watch - Jordan Schafer took one more step closer to locking down the center field job with the Atlanta Braves with the trade of Josh Anderson to the Detroit Tigers. Brett Anderson of the Oakland A’s had a nice outing on Monday. He looks to be solid play in AL only leagues. Two words, Jason McDonald, pick him up now, he should be the fifth starter for the Los Angeles Dodgers and should put up some decent numbers.

Lineup announcements – It looks like David Murphy starts the season hitting second for the New York Mets which gives him a bump up in runs scored. Luis Castillo looks to be hitting eight which will reduce his stolen base attempts batting in front of the pitcher.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball ADP Movers

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 28th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

With the final two weekends of fantasy baseball drafts upon us, let’s take a look at the latest movers for average draft position, using the results from Mock Draft Central for the NFBC scoring system (which is 15 team leagues) for the previous week.

James McDonald (+91) – in the running for the 5th starter position for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Don’t know why the Dodgers wasted time having him pitch in relief in spring and are just now trying to stretch him out. Gets overlooked by scouts because he does not have dominating stuff, but he always seems to get the job done.

Brett Anderson / Trevor Cahill (+63/+61) – I wrote about both of these players in one of my earlier posts about rookies who would eventually have a job this season. With Gio Gonzalez recently sent down and Justin Duchscherer starting the season on the disabled list, it looks like Cahill and Anderson coudl slot into the number four and five spots in the rotation.

Leo Nunez (+50) – With Matt Lindstrom bothered by a strained rotator cuff, Nunez might have a chance to grab some saves in the early the season for the Flordia Marlins. If you own Lindstrom in a league, you should look to grab Nunez as a handcuff.

Brett Gardner (+43) – Gardner seems to be moving up the draft board every weel and the last wee has been no exception. The problem for him is Melky Cabrera has caught fire the last few weeks of spring training so the decision could go down to the final week. There is still a chance that Cabrera gets traded to someone in need of an outfielder at some point this year, regardless of where he starts the season for the New York Yankees.

Jordan Zimmerman (+42) – he is a sleeper no more, now it will take a  pick in the 15-17th round to get him in a 14-15 team mixed draft league. He starts the season as the number five starter for the Washington Nationals, but in all likelihood he will be the best pitcher by the end of the season, if he is not already.

Chris Getz (+42) – has been named the starting second basemen for the Chicago White Sox and his value get could a little bit more of a boost if he hits in the top two spots in the batting lineup as he has been the last few games. He is up to four stolen bases so far in spring.

Jordan Schafer (+38) – Schafer is hitting close to .400 this spring with five stolen bases and seems to have pulled ahead of Gregor Blanco and Josh Anderson the starting center field job with the Atlanta Braves. Schafer ended last year in AA so there is always the possiblity the Braves let him start the year in AAA if they feel his defense his below Blanco’s and Anderson’s.

Micah Owings (+35) - Owings seems to have locked up the fifth starter position with the Cincinatti Reds. He is a good late round pick if you are looking for strikeouts.

Emilio Bonifacio (+33) – Bonifacio has had a huge couple of games in spring training recently so people seem to be using that as a reason to draft him. Based on the current Florida Marlins roster however, he does not have a starting job, so if he makes the team, it will be as a utility man.

Ivan Rodriguez (+28) – recently signed by the Houston Astros, Rodriguez looks like he will start the season batting second. He should be able to squueze out another good season at age 37 and is one of the few sources for steals from the catcher position.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Infield Tiers – Catcher

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 26th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Following up on my previous post, here are the tiers for fantasy baseball catchers.

Tier 1 – Russ Martin, Brian McCann

Tier 2 – Geovany Soto, Victor Martinez

Tier 3 – Ryan Doumit, Chris Ianetta, Bengie Molina

Tier 4 – Jorge Posada, A.J. Pierzynski, Ramon Hernandez

Tier 5 – Kelly Shoppach, Ivan Rodriguez, Chris Snyder, Matt Wieters, Mike Napoli

Tier 6 – John Baker, Miguel Olivo, Brandon Igne

Tier 7 – Kurt Suzuki, Dioner Navarro, George Laird, Yadier Molina, Jesus Flores, Kenji Johjima, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Nick Hundley, Rod Barajas, Brian Schneider

Martin and McCann are going two picks apart according to their average draft position (ADP). However, I would opt for Martin over McCann every time with the bonus of 20 steals coming from the catcher position. Martin’s power might fluctuate more from year-to-year in the 13-20 home run range, while McCann has 20-25 home run power, the steals more than make up for the difference since the other categories of batting average, runs and rbi are close.

Soto is close to the first tier, but I would like to see his put up the same stats for a second year in a row before I bump him up to that group. The power potential he had exhibited in 2007 in the minor leagues carried over last season as he clubbed the same number of home runs as McCann did. Throw the last season out the window for Victor Martinez as he battled injuries that reduced his power. He has already hit three home runs this spring, which is more that what he hit last season in 266 at bats. Expect a return to numbers that fall in between his 2006 and 2007 seasons.

Doumit’s power numbers in 2008 were pretty much in line with what he had done the two previous seasons, when you look at the at bat totals. The .319 average might have been a little over his head. His career minor league minor league average was .296, and I see him more in the .285-.300 range annually. Iannetta offers a little more power than Doumit, but a lower batting average, even taking into account Ianetta plays his home games at Coors field. Bengie Molina always seems to be underrated. He is old and plays for the San Francisco Giants who have a somewhat weak offense, but that benefits Molina who hit cleanup and has driven in 80+ runs each of the last two seasons. The only downside is his runs scored which  has been below 46 the last two years with the Giants.

Posada comes off of shoulder surgery in 2008 that limited him to only 168 at bats. So far this spring, he seems in line to be ready to play on Opening Day. He might be limited to around 400-450 at bats, which puts him at around 13-15 home runs, with 55 runs scored and 65 rbi. Pierzynski, or AJP for ease of typing purposes is solid every season. You know what you are going to get with him, an average around .280 with 14 home runs, 60 rbi and 60 runs scored. Ramon Hernandez moves to the the National League this season and should be able to put up similar stats to AJP but with a batting average in the .255-.265 range.

Shoppach has some thunder in his bat, but the question is how many at bats is he going to get this season. I am pegging him for around 400 which gives him the possibility to hit 15-20 home runs. He has already hit four home runs this spring. Rodriguez heads to the National League after recently signing with the Houston Astros. It looks like from his first few games with the Astros that he might be hitting second in the batting order. I see Rodriguez putting up a stat line of .270 with 70 runs, 12 home runs, 65 rbi and 8 stolen bases. Chris Snyder offers 15 home run power with a some batting average downside. He seemed to get more hack happy last season as he struck out 34 more time in only eight more at bats than the previous year. Wieters has already been told he is being sent down to the minors, but he should be back in the major leagues by May. Of course, this is the Baltimore Orioles we a re talking about so even that might not be a certainty. He is hitting .343 this spring with more walks than strikeouts (4/3) which is always nice to see from a young hitter. Napoli is recovering from shoulder surgery and there is a chance that he might start the season on the disabled yes. He has 20 home run potential, but because he has never had more than 269 at bats in the previous three seasons, his runs scored and rbi remain low.

Baker was part of the Oakland A’s draft made famous by the book “Moneyball”. Now in his first year as a starting major league catcher, he has a chance to put up some decent numbers for the Florida Marlins. It looks like Baker will be hitting second this season. Expect a year around .280-70-11-60. Miquel Olivo was promised the starting catcher by the Kansas City Royals back in November and so far the coach speak has them sticking with the plan. Even with Olivo as the starter, John Buck will still start possibly 2-3 games per week. Olivo has the power to hit 15 home runs so if he can start off the season hot, he will keep Buck relegated to bench duty. Inge should see a return to 500 at bats this season as a starter once again. That may be a bad thing if you have him on your fantasy roster as the more at bats does more damage to your team batting average. He has the ability to put up some decent numbers, to the tune of 15 home runs and 70 rbi, but you better have a lot of .300 hitters on your team to carry his sub .230 average.

Tier 7 I have in no real order. Best I can say is put all of the names in the hat, pull one out and hope you get Yahtzee. You only would have to worry about a tier 7 in leagues that require you to draft two catchers. If you do, make sure you don’t get sutck with one of them. There is no reason to end up with two weak catchers or even one weak catcher even in a 14 or 15 team league. Don’t let the catcher spot on your roster put you at a disadvantage against the other owners in your league.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Infield Tiers – Third Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 23rd, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Following up on my previous post, here are the tiers for fantasy baseball third basemen.

Tier 1 – David Wright

Tier 2 – Evan Longoria, Alex Rodriguez, Aramis Ramirez,

Tier 3 – Chipper Jones

Tier 4 – Garrett Atkins, Jorge Cantu, Carlos Guillen

Tier 5 – Adrian Beltre, Ryan Zimmerman, Aubrey Huff, Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Reynolds, Casey Blake, Kevin Kouzmanoff

Tier 6 – Melvin Mora, Mike Lowell, Alex Gordon, Chone Figgins

Tier 7 – Joe Crede, Josh Fields, Bill Hall, Scott Rolen, Ian Stewart

I currently have Wright ranked number three overall. His stolen bases could take a hit with Jerry Manuel the manager now for the entire season, but he is outstanding in every category.

Evan Longoria I have as the second best third basemen. He put up the same number of home runs as Aramis Ramirez in 100 less at bats last season. In another year, Longoria will be battling David Wright and A-Rod for the  number one ranking at 3b.

Alex Rodriguez looks like he will miss roughly 25-30 games which puts him just at the end of round two in 15 team league drafts. He still should end up around30 home runs, 90 rbi and 15 steals.

Chipper Jones has a tier all to himself.  His current ADP puts him at 54, or the end of the fourth round. If you select him, make sure you take a quality backup later in the draft knowing Jones will miss at least 20-30 games during the season. The .320+ average makes him worth the pick.

I wanted to put Atkins in Tier 3, but with numbers that have fallen two years in a row and Ian Stewart lurking to steal some at bats, plus the potential for a trade out of Colorado he becomes Tier 4. Cantu’s season was not that much of a breakout last year except for batting average. His numbers in 2006 showed the potential for 25+ home runs if he could get the at bats. He also adds flexibility to your roster by qualifying at 1b. I love the fact that fantasy people owners discount players coming off of injuries or down years like there is no such thing as a bounce back. I like Guillen in Tier 4 and best of all you can probably get him later in the draft as he has been going behind 7 other third basemen I have not even listed yet. Qualifies at 3b, 1B and will qualify at OF in week four. Is a solid .300 hitter and with the potential to steal 10-15 bases plus hit 20 home runs makes him undervalued in drafts for this year.

Tier 5, I threw a bunch of people together. Their stats are all kind of similar. I like Beltre a little bit more for the bonus steals he can provide. Zimmerman could be a nice pick if he can recover his power after his injuries last season. Huff is due for regression after doubling his home run total from 2007. Encarnacion seems to have promise but has yet to fulfill it yet. Reynolds’ stats look like Ryan Howard lite with the strikeouts and low batting average. Kouzmanoff plays in the vast wasteland that is Petco Park and is surrounded by the weakest lineup in baseball.

Tier 6, I don’t think that Melvin Mora has discovered the fountain of youth in his late thirties so expect a drop off in performance in 2009. Alex Gordon is still trying to live up to the hype generated several years ago. He is always drafted way too early in fantasy drafts as people expect his breakout season to come one of these years. Figgins was a third or fourth round pick a few years ago, but a few hamstring injuries later and his stats seem Ryan Theriot like, which is okay, but not for a corner infielder.

This might be the last season for Josh Fields to prove that he belongs in the major leaues with Dayan Viciedo pushing him. Don’t waste a pick on Bill Hall, Matt Gamel will be up for the Milwaukee Brewers at some point this season if he can improve his fielding.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Infield Tiers – Shortstop

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 22nd, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Following up on my previous post, here are the tiers for fantasy baseball shortstops.

Tier 1 – Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins

Tier 2 – Rafael Furcal

Tier 3 – Michael Young, Derek Jeter, Orlando Cabrera, J.J. Hardy, Jhonny Peralta, Troy Tulowitzki, Stephen Drew

Tier 4 – Edgar Renteria, Mike Aviles, Jed Lowrie, Khalil Greene

Tier 5 – Ryan Theriot, Jason Bartlett, Manny Burriss, Elvis Andrus, Cesar Izturius

Tier 6 – Miguel Tejada, Yunel Escobar, Christian Guzman, Yuniesky Betancourt, Alex Gonzalez, Brendan Harris

Tier 7 – Nick Punto, Julio Lugo

I have Hanley Ramirez (1 overall), Joe Reyes (2 overall) and Jimmy Rollins (5 overall) in the first round. I am a big believer in building your team from the inside out, looking for infielders when possible in the first few rounds of the draft, particularly those that cover the standard five categories in fantasy baseball. Ramirez is on the verge of putting up a 40-40 season, quite possibly this year. Reyes alone accounts for roughly 40% of your stolen base goal to finish in the top 3 in that category. His speed reduces the likelihood that you get stuck with a two category player late in the draft like a Michael Bourn, Juan Pierre, or Brett Gardner, etc.   Rollins suffered a decline in power last season I think due to the ankle injury he suffered early in the year. I expect him to bounce back in 2009.

There is a big drop off from Tier 1 to Tier 2. Furcal comes off a 2008 season that saw him miss almost three months due to back surgery. Current ADP has him at 59, which puts him at the end of round 4 in a 15 team league.So far this spring, he has attempted two stolen bases.

In Tier 3, I have Michael Young and Jeter group together with Cabrera a few picks after them. Young will offer the added flexibility of being 3b eligible in the fourth week of the season. Both players offer .300 average with 100 runs scored, 12 home runs, 80 rbi and 10-15 steals. Disregard Cabrera’s ADP, he was not being drafted in a lot of leagues when he was still an unsigned free agent. The next group should really be called Tier 3.5 since the stats they offer are slightly different, but their ADP puts them within one round of the first three players. Peralta and Hardy I group together, Peralta offering perhaps a little more runs and rbi playing in the American League. Hardy has been an extremely streaky hitter the last two season. If he was able to stay hot over the course of an entire year, the potential for 30 home runs exists. Tulowitzki missed time due to multiple injuries in 2008. Being in Colorado gives him a good chance for rebound back to his 2006 stats. Drew finally had a good season after several years of hype. I am not happy to see his walk rate decline, possibly in attempts to hit for more power.

Edgar Renteria returns to the National League where he has always put up better numbers. Hitting high in the San Francsico Giants lineup will give him a chance to put up stats that fall in between his 2006 and 2007 seasons in Atlanta. Mike Aviles had a breakout season at age 28 so don’t expect too much growth in his stat line from 2008. Aviles also qualifies at 2b. Jed Lowrie looks to be the starting shortstop for Boston with Julio Lugo currently sidelined due to injury. Lowrie, who has been on fire this spring hitting over .400 also qualifies at 3b. Greene is a good upside pick, as outside of Petco Park he is a career .270 hitter. He is the last source of 20 home run power potential at this point in the draft at shortstop.

You could flip flop Tier 5 and 6 depending on your needs at the time of your pick. In Tier 5 I grouped the speed players together. Theriot and Bartlett I group together, with Theriot having a distinct advantage in runs scored. Burriss offers the potential for 25 steals if he can win the second base job in San Francisco. Andrus heads in 2009 as the Texas Rangers starting shortstop. The downside is he will be batting ninth which will limit his runs scored, but he does have the potential to steal 20+ bases if he has the green light. Izturius could see 500 at bats in Baltimore for the first time since 2004 and offers 20 steal potential.

I was considering putting Tejada in Tier 4 but I just could not bring myself to do it. I think the end is coming fast for Tejada, who hit only three home runs after the All-Star Break last season. Escobar, Guzman and Betancourt I have lumped together. Guzman’s surgery in 2006 seems to have fixed his swing as he has hit .319 since that time. Gonzalez returns after mising all of 2008 due to a fractured left knee and offers 15 home run potential. Harris offers multiple flexibility by qualifying at 2b, SS and 3b.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Infield Tiers – Second Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 21st, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Following up on my previous post, here are the tiers for fantasy baseball second basemen.

Tier 1 – Chase Utley

Tier 2 – Ian Kinsler, Brian Roberts, Dustin Pedroia, Brandon Phillips

Tier 3 – Alexei Ramirez, Dan Uggla

Tier 4 – Kelly Johnson, Robinson Cano, Mark DeRosa, Jose Lopez

Tier 5 – Kaz Matsui, Rickie Weeks, Luis Castillo

Tier 6 – Howie Kendrick, Alexi Casilla, Felipe Lopez, Orlando Hudson,  Placido Polanco, Freddy Sanchez, Mike Fontenot, Clint Barmes

Tier 7 – Akinroi Iwamura, Mark Ellis, Jeff Baker, Chris Getz

Utley looks to be on track for opening day so I have him still rated as the only tier 1 player. It is interesting to see how many players have fallen out of the top 15 players in just the last two years that Kinsler and / or Pedroia are now going in the first round in some drafts.

Tier 2 represents all second round picks in a 15 team league. I like Kinsler for his power / speed combination. If he ever gets a full healthy season of 600+ at bats, he is looking at a potential 25 home run 30 steal season. I have Roberts next ahead of Pedroia. I have written in previous articles how I think Pedroia’s stats will see some regression this year. Roberts is consistently in the 10 home run, 55 rbi 40 steal range and I like the steals more that banking on Pedroia having a repeat performance of 2008. I have Pedroia ranked ahead of Phillips, giving the edge to Pedroia in runs scored and batting average, the edge to Phillips in home runs and stolen bases. I don’t want to sacrifice average the first five rounds of the draft so I would take Pedroia over Phillips if presented with the choice.

Alexei Ramirez has been going toward the end of the third round in most mock drafts. He will offer the added flexibility of being eligible at shortstop in the fourth week of the season assuming your league has the standard 20 games played rule to qualify at a position. Uggla’s current ADP is 63, which slots him at the end of round 4 / start of round 5. He homered, walked or struck out in 45% of his plate appearances in 2008.

At this point, most fantasy baseball owners draft sheets will vary quite a bit. I like Kelly Johnson next ahead of Cano. I think Cano is one of the more overrated fantasy baseball players. He always seems to get drafted 3-4 rounds earlier than he should. Possibly because he plays for the Yankees, or the fact that he hit .342 in 2006. Johnson I grade ahead of Cano because of the extra 5-10 bases he will swipe. DeRosa and Lopez I have grouped together next with DeRosa getting the edge for more consistency in batting average and to hedge against Lopez not being able to duplicate his stats at home from last season.

Tier 5, time to throw a dart at the board, as all of the players have speed, but also carry injury risk. Matsui has had over 400 at bats only once in the past four years so to say he is an injury risk is a bit of an understatement. He is currently penciled in as the Astros lead off hitter. A healthy 2009 could see Matsui with a line of 5 hr 50 rbi and 30 steals. Weeks has put up similar stats the last two years but his .240 average is a killer. At this point of the draft, Castillo is the last second basemen with the ability to steal 20+ bases, outside of possibly Felipe Lopez. Castillo seems to be healthy in spring and could steal 30 for the New York Mets this year.

Tier 6 is a jumbled mass of bodies. Kendrick like Cano is way overrated as well. He has never been healthy for a full season and even combining his 2006-2007 numbers which would have put him at 600 at bats, gives him 9 hr 69 rbi and 11 steals with close to a .300 average, looks a lot like what I expect from Alexi Casilla this season. Lopez could have a chance for a few more stolen bases if he improves his rate of 50% from last season (8 steals in 16 attempts). Hudson, Polanco, Sanchez, Fontenot, Barmes all offer similar stats in the 1o home run-60 rbi-10 stolen base range. Barmes also qualifies at shortstop.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Infield Tiers – First Base

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 19th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

We have focused quite a few articles on ADP (average draft position) recently so now I want to tie that into another fantasy baseball tool which is the tiered system for player rankings.

A lot of the magazines or web sites for fantasy baseball have cheat sheets, but it is mostly a ranking by position of one to whatever number.  While it is good to know the order of what player you would draft before another on your sheet, most of the time you don’t have an idea of what the difference is between the two players.

That’s where having a tiered system to your draft sheet comes in handy, so you have an idea of what round you can take a particular player in, or if you can wait several rounds and get the same type of stats. It will also help prepare you so you are not left out if there is a run on a particular position.

If you combine a tiered system to drafting, along with doing your own mock draft based on your draft slot and using ADP, you will be able to improve your draft performances. Let’s take a look at first base and how a tiered system would apply.

First Base:

Tier 1 – Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera

Tier 2 – Ryan Howard, Mark Texeira, Lance Berkman

Tier 3 – Justin Morneau, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez

Tier 4 – Kevin Youkilis, Joey Votto, Derek Lee, Carlos Delgado, Chris Davis

Tier 5 – Carlos Pena, Paul Konerko, Jason Giambi, Mike Jacobs, Adam LaRoche

Tier 6 – James Loney, Casey Kotchman, Pablo Sandoval, Todd Helton

Tier 7 – Ryan Garko, Nick Johnson, Travis Ishikawa, Chad Tracy

Pujols and Cabrera are the top two players at first base so they get the Tier 1 ranking. In 2007, check the numbers, they had almost identical seasons with Cabrera’s slightly better. In 2008, home runs were the same, rbi went to Cabrera, runs to Pujols, but the big difference was the 60 point difference in batting average. Pujols was 30 points higher than the year before and Cabrera was roughly 30 points lower than the year before. Tier 2, Howard for his huge power numbers, although his average costs you anywhere from 2-3 points (from a team average of .283 to .280) by rostering him instead of a Texeira or Berkman. Texeira and Berkman round out the second tier because they are both .300 average, 30 plus home runs and 100+ runs and rbi, with Berkman getting the additional handful of stolen bases. Tier 3, I have Fielder, who I think is closer to a .280 35 hr 100 rbi hitter, grouped with Mourneau who falls just outside of Berkman and Texeira for inconsistencies in 30 home run power from year to year and Adrian Gonzalez who is 30-100-100 in the .280 average range.

Heading into the draft using the #5 draft slot as an example, assuming a 15 team league and using the ADP from Mock Draft Central, the question is who is your first round pick, assuming Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, David Wright and Jose Reyes are gone. With Alex Rodriguez hurt, pick #5 to me becomes the biggest question mark pick of the first round. You need to be able to have someone close in ability to the top four players already taken, and someone better than the players that are picked 6-15 in the remainder of the round. If you are considering Cabrera with the 5th pick, you need to look at your tier list and the ADP and see what that means. My question if I had that pick is, if I do not take Cabrera in round 1, what are my other options? Based on ADP, there is a chance Fielder slides to your second pick (26 overall) but maybe not. In round three, there is a chance to get Gonzalez with pick 35 overall. If you miss Gonzalez in round 3, who is probably the last sure thing to get at least .280-30-100-100 at first base, it becomes a little bit more of a gamble for stat accuracy (the likelihood that your statistical prediction comes true, based on your definition of true, whether you allow for a 2% variance, 5% variance or whatever the number may be).

I put Kevin Youkilis in Tier 4, I am not sold that he is a 30 home run hitter. Putting him in Tier 4 means I will not be drafting him, because his ADP is 40, which means he would most likely be gone by my pick in round 4, which would be 56 overall, assuming the #5 draft slot. I think to take him that early in the third round would be way too much of a risk. Joey Votto and Derek Lee I have grouped together next in Tier 4, they are both players I see in the .290-25-90-90-8 (sb) range. Chris Davis has 35-40 home run potential, and also the potential to break the strikeout record. He does have the ability to hit for average in the .270 range so I group him with Carlos Delgado, both players I see around .275-35-95-100.

If I have someone from one of the first four tiers, I would be happy at frst base. Anyone after that I would be disappointed. The players in Tiers 1-4 make up 13 players. If it is a 15 team league, that means at least two teams are ending up with players in Tier 5 or below. The possibility is it could be even more if someone takes a first basemen in the Top 4 Tiers and later adds another Top 4 Tier first baseman as a corner infielder. That is why I always chart the draft of other owners by position so I have an idea of how each team is filling in their roster to anticipate who might be going after which position.

Tier 5 I don’t have really grouped in any particular order. By this time you are probably in round 12 or later of your draft and your pick will be made on where you stand in certain categories. Tier 5 represents players that can provide 25+ home runs or more. Tier 6 represents players with the ability to hit 15-20 home runs, but also hit .280 to .300. Tier 7 represents players that could produce some decent stats, but each have question marks surrounding them. For Garko, does he lose at bats to Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez? Does Nick Johnson lose at bats due to another injury or to Adam Dunn as Washington tries to rotate one of their 10 outfielders? Ishikawa should be the recepient of the majority of at bats in San Francisco assuming Brian Sabean does not let Rich Aurilia get another 400+ at bats. Tracy could lose at bats depending on the health of Eric Byrnes in Arizona.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Closer ADP

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 18th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Here are the current rankings from Mock Draft Central for a 15-team mixed league fantasy baseball league draft using the NFBC scoring system for closers and relief pitchers.

Rank Pitchers ADP Pitchers ADP
1 J. Papelbon 59 Dan Wheeler 295
2 Brad Lidge 67 Grant Balfour 297
3 Joe Nathan 79 Rafael Perez 297
4 F. Rodriguez 81 Hong-Chih Kuo 297
5 Mariano Rivera 87 Kevin Gregg 307
6 Joakim Soria 95 C.J. Wilson 313
7 Bobby Jenks 106 Jon Rauch 313
8 Jose Valverde 113 Joel Zumaya 314
9 J. Broxton 117 Rafael Soriano 316
10 Brian Fuentes 118 Takashi Saito 318
11 Carlos Marmol 125 Jeff Samardzija 319
12 B.J. Ryan 126 Ryan Franklin 323
13 Matt Capps 144 F. Rodney 327
14 F. Cordero 148 Hideki Okajima 332
15 Kerry Wood 150 M. Kobayashi 334
16 Brian Wilson 162 Scot Shields 338
17 Mike Gonzalez 168 J. Masterson 342
18 Heath Bell 169 Miguel Batista 345
19 Matt Lindstrom 173 Jensen Lewis 349
20 Trevor Hoffman 184 Mark Lowe 349
21 Chad Qualls 190 Scott Linebrink 351
22 Joey Devine 191 J. Isringhausen 358
23 Huston Street 197 Octavio Dotel 365
24 Joel Hanrahan 200 Braden Looper 367
25 Frank Francisco 212 M. Delcarmen 368
26 Brandon Lyon 227 Jeremy Accardo 369
27 Brad Ziegler 232 Tyler Walker 373
28 Chris Perez 248 Tony Pena 377
29 J.J. Putz 253 Eric Gagne 378
30 George Sherrill 257 R. Betancourt 379
31 Troy Percival 258 Scott Downs 388
32 Chris Ray 291 Leo Nunez 392
33 Manny Corpas 291 Chad Cordero 392
34 Jason Motte 293 Aaron Heilman 398
35 Dan Wheeler 295 Juan Cruz 411
36 Grant Balfour 297 Ryan Madson 412
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2009 Fantasy Baseball Pitcher ADP

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 17th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Here are the current rankings from Mock Draft Central for a 15-team mixed league fantasy baseball league draft using the NFBC scoring system for pitchers.

Rank Pitchers ADP Pitchers ADP Pitchers ADP
1 Johan Santana 22 Gavin Floyd 171 T. Wellemeyer 309
2 Tim Lincecum 28 Matt Garza 176 David Bush 310
3 CC Sabathia 37 Scott Baker 181 Jamie Moyer 310
4 Cole Hamels 45 Erik Bedard 185 Taylor Buchholz 311
5 Jake Peavy 48 Ted Lilly 191 Ian Snell 312
6 Brandon Webb 50 C. Kershaw 194 Brad Penny 312
7 Roy Halladay 50 Aaron Cook 197 Anibal Sanchez 312
8 Dan Haren 59 Joe Saunders 197 Joe Blanton 314
9 F. Liriano 72 Jair Jurrjens 203 Ben Sheets 315
10 Josh Beckett 75 Johnny Cueto 206 Clay Buchholz 316
11 Roy Oswalt 78 Gil Meche 216 Anthony Reyes 317
12 Cliff Lee 78 C. Wang 216 Sean Marshall 317
13 James Shields 84 Jered Weaver 216 Gio Gonzalez 317
14 Chad Billingsley 84 J. Duchscherer 220 Glen Perkins 320
15 Ervin Santana 88 Mike Pelfrey 233 Barry Zito 320
16 Scott Kazmir 93 W. Rodriguez 236 J. Bonderman 321
17 John Lackey 94 Andy Pettitte 237 Sean Gallagher 321
18 Felix Hernandez 95 Jon. Sanchez 239 Kyle Davies 336
19 A.J. Burnett 105 John Maine 241 Tim Redding 336
20 Jon Lester 105 Scott Olsen 245 Homer Bailey 336
21 D. Matsuzaka 113 Jesse Litsch 245 Andrew Miller 337
22 Yovani Gallardo 116 Hiroki Kuroda 249 D. McGowan 338
23 E. Volquez 116 Oliver Perez 258 John Lannan 338
24 C. Zambrano 125 Jeremy Guthrie 263 J.P. Howell 339
25 Rich Harden 126 Chris Carpenter 264 Greg Smith 339
26 Ricky Nolasco 126 Ubaldo Jimenez 264 Edwin Jackson 340
27 Matt Cain 127 A. Galarraga 271 Pedro Martinez 340
28 Justin Verlander 132 John Smoltz 274 Rich Hill 341
29 Javier Vazquez 132 Manny Parra 276 J. de la Rosa 346
30 A. Wainwright 136 K. Kawakami 278 Shaun Marcum 351
31 Zack Greinke 138 Paul Maholm 284 Tim Wakefield 355
32 Brett Myers 143 Koji Uehara 288 Trevor Cahill 357
33 Chris Young 151 F. Carmona 289 Tim Hudson 362
34 Josh Johnson 153 Mark Buehrle 290 Dana Eveland 362
35 Randy Johnson 157 A. Sonnanstine 292 Shawn Hill 365
36 John Danks 158 Philip Hughes 297 Jon Garland 366
37 Derek Lowe 161 Kyle Lohse 303 Dallas Braden 386
38 Ryan Dempster 164 Kelvim Escobar 305 Brian Bannister 391
39 Aaron Harang 166 Bronson Arroyo 307 Micah Owings 394
40 Kevin Slowey 169 Randy Wolf 308 Kevin Millwood 400
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2009 Fantasy Baseball Outfielder ADP

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 16th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Here are the current rankings from Mock Draft Central for a 15-team mixed league fantasy baseball league draft using the NFBC scoring system for outfielders.

Rank Outfield ADP Outfield ADP Outfield ADP
1 Grady Sizemore 6 Xavier Nady 157 Josh Willingham 304
2 Ryan Braun 7 Milton Bradley 158 Josh Anderson 304
3 Josh Hamilton 12 Pat Burrell 158 Jack Cust 304
4 Matt Holliday 16 Eric Byrnes 173 Chase Headley 304
5 B.J. Upton 19 Conor Jackson 176 Daniel Murphy 305
6 Carlos Beltran 21 Adam Jones 185 Ken Griffey 305
7 Manny Ramirez 22 Justin Upton 192 Felix Pie 308
8 Carlos Lee 23 Hideki Matsui 196 Nyjer Morgan 309
9 Alfonso Soriano 24 Jeremy Hermida 197 Ben Francisco 309
10 Carl Crawford 27 Denard Span 200 G. Anderson 310
11 Ichiro Suzuki 28 Rick Ankiel 208 Colby Rasmus 312
12 Nick Markakis 33 Nick Swisher 208 K. Fukudome 312
13 Matt Kemp 33 Fred Lewis 222 Jody Gerut 313
14 Jason Bay 35 Elijah Dukes 226 Jerry Owens 316
15 Alex Rios 38 Coco Crisp 227 Gary Matthews 317
16 Carlos Quentin 39 Delmon Young 227 Chris Duncan 317
17 Vlad Guerrero 42 C. Maybin 231 F. Gutierrez 317
18 C. Granderson 48 Adam Lind 233 Ryan Sweeney 322
19 Shane Victorino 49 Luke Scott 234 Matt Joyce 329
20 Jacoby Ellsbury 51 Carlos Gomez 240 Jerry Hairston 331
21 Nate McLouth 54 Ryan Church 247 Matt LaPorta 335
22 Corey Hart 55 Jeff Francoeur 248 Marcus Thames 339
23 Bobby Abreu 61 Shin-Soo Choo 250 Brian Giles 340
24 M. Ordonez 66 David DeJesus 256 Carlos Gonzalez 341
25 Adam Dunn 68 Juan Pierre 256 Brett Gardner 343
26 Hunter Pence 72 Randy Winn 266 Dexter Fowler 346
27 Jermaine Dye 92 Mike Cameron 268 Melky Cabrera 348
28 Ryan Ludwick 92 M. Cuddyer 275 Andruw Jones 359
29 Jay Bruce 94 Ryan Spilborghs 276 A. McCutchen 363
30 Torii Hunter 103 J.D. Drew 278 Mark Teahen 365
31 Chris Young 103 Michael Bourn 279 Eric Hinske 367
32 Johnny Damon 109 Jose Guillen 283 Rocco Baldelli 369
33 Andre Ethier 109 Jason Kubel 283 Matt Diaz 370
34 Vernon Wells 110 Aaron Rowand 287 W. Balentien 373
35 Raul Ibanez 120 Chris Dickerson 288 Steven Pearce 375
36 Nelson Cruz 129 Cody Ross 292 Seth Smith 381
37 Jayson Werth 132 David Murphy 293 Rajai Davis 382
38 Brad Hawpe 132 Juan Rivera 297 Travis Buck 385
39 L. Milledge 132 Travis Snider 298 Scott Podsednik 397
40 Willy Taveras 147 Skip Schumaker 301 Marlon Byrd 398
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2009 Fantasy Baseball Infielder ADP

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 15th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Here are the current rankings from Mock Draft Central for a 15-team mixed league fantasy baseball league draft using the NFBC scoring system for infielders.

Rank First Base ADP Second Base ADP Third Base ADP
1 Albert Pujols 3 Ian Kinsler 11 David Wright 4
2 Miguel Cabrera 7 Chase Utley 16 Alex Rodriguez 12
3 Ryan Howard 12 Dustin Pedroia 23 Evan Longoria 21
4 Mark Teixeira 13 Brandon Phillips 29 Aramis Ramirez 32
5 Lance Berkman 17 Brian Roberts 36 Chipper Jones 54
6 Justin Morneau 22 Alexei Ramirez 49 Garrett Atkins 76
7 Prince Fielder 25 Dan Uggla 65 Chone Figgins 79
8 Adrian Gonzalez 37 Robinson Cano 83 Aubrey Huff 90
9 Kevin Youkilis 40 Howie Kendrick 129 R.Zimmerman 96
10 Chris Davis 59 Jose Lopez 162 E. Encarnacion 120
11 Joey Votto 66 Kaz Matsui 181 Alex Gordon 145
12 Carlos Pena 69 Mark DeRosa 191 Jorge Cantu 146
13 Derrek Lee 75 Kelly Johnson 193 Adrian Beltre 153
14 James Loney 100 Placido Polanco 200 Carlos Guillen 196
15 Carlos Delgado 101 Rickie Weeks 201 Ty Wigginton 201
16 Paul Konerko 170 Orlando Hudson 265 Melvin Mora 207
17 Hank Blalock 180 Felipe Lopez 267 Mark Reynolds 212
18 Pablo Sandoval 203 Mark Ellis 267 Casey Blake 253
19 Jason Giambi 203 Akinori Iwamura 269 K. Kouzmanoff 256
20 Mike Jacobs 212 Alexi Casilla 277 Ian Stewart 266
Rank Shortstop ADP Second Base ADP Utility ADP
1 Hanley Ramirez 1 Russell Martin 45 David Ortiz 53
2 Jose Reyes 4 Brian McCann 48 Jim Thome 169
3 Jimmy Rollins 9 Joe Mauer 59 Travis Hafner 244
4 Rafael Furcal 60 Geovany Soto 65 Kendry Morales 272
5 Michael Young 84 Victor Martinez 74 Gary Sheffield 296
6 Stephen Drew 87 Ryan Doumit 119
7 Derek Jeter 95 Matt Wieters 130
8 Troy Tulowitzki 96 Chris Iannetta 138
9 Jhonny Peralta 99 Mike Napoli 155
10 J.J. Hardy 106 Bengie Molina 170
11 Miguel Tejada 126 Jorge Posada 210
12 O. Cabrera 160 Jeff Clement 240
13 Mike Aviles 170 A.J. Pierzynski 251
14 Ryan Theriot 186 R. Hernandez 253
15 Yunel Escobar 191 Dioner Navarro 258
16 Khalil Greene 204 Kurt Suzuki 268
17 Jason Bartlett 218 Kelly Shoppach 276
18 Edgar Renteria 239 Gerald Laird 303
19 Jed Lowrie 254 Yadier Molina 311
20 C. Guzman 274 Brandon Inge 312
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2009 Fantasy Baseball Upside / Downside Rounds 6-10

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 12th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Following up on my previous post, lets look at rounds 6-10 of the draft with each player having the biggest upside or downside per round. The same assumptions are in play, 15 team mixed league fantasy baseball draft, using the average draft positions (ADP) from Mock Draft Central and the NFBC scoring system.

Round 6:

Upside - Ryan Ludwick (88) – The upside is not there in terms of performance; I don’t see him surpassing his 37 home runs of a year ago, but with the his ADP currently as the third from last pick of round 6, I would be happy to take 32 home runs and a .285 average from him. Remember last year, he started off in a platoon situation with the St. Louis Cardinals, so the stats he put up were in roughly 75-100 at bats less than what he will have this season, barring any type of injury of course.

Downside - Scott Kazmir (90) – He has only thrown over 200 innings one time in the last three years. The injury risk alone makes push him below some of the pitchers that are going in rounds 7-9. Add in his wildness at the end of last season, he walked 18 batters in 25 2/3 innings in the postseason and the 6th round is too high for him.

Round 7:

Upside – Joakim Soria (94) – The seventh round is usually where I start looking for a closer in a 15 team draft if there is a solid pick that has slid that far. Soria at #94 fits that profile this season. It would be nice if his strikeout rate was a little bit higher, but with his earned run average and whip ratio, that might be nit-picking him too much. People discount him because he plays for the Kansas City Royals, but bad teams tend to play quite a few close games when they do win, so save chances will always be available. Currently he is the sixth closer being drafted.

Downside - James Loney (99) – One thing to keep in mind when projecting rookies or young players seeing at bats for the first time is that is not a good idea to prorate stats from a partial season and assume that he will carry those numbers into the following year. Case in point is James Loney who hit .331 in 344 at bats in 2007 with 15 home runs. A lot of people were projecting him for 25 home runs and 100+ rbi with a .300 average last season and he came up way short in the home run department with only 13. His career high in the minor leagues was 11 in 2005.

Round 8:

Upside – J.J. Hardy (105) – So I cheated a little bit and stuck him in round 8, although technically his ADP is the last pick of round 7. Hardy has put up two pretty similar seasons the last two years. His stats are pretty much in line with Troy Tulowitzki and Jhonny Peralta, both of which are going a full one round higher than Hardy in mock drafts. Alcides Escobar may be the future for the Milwaukee Brewers at shortstop but he is no threat to Hardy’s job in 2009.

Downside - Joba Chamberlain (107) – Yes, in his 11 starts he put up some nice numbers, but he only had three wins to show for it, despite striking out 74 batters in 65 innings. In 2009, he is slated to open the season as the New York Yankees fifth starter which means he might get skipped a start or two for rainouts or additional rest. If the New York Yankees fall out of the play-off race late in the year, there is a chance they would limit his innings since he only threw a little over 100 last season. With Daisuke Matsuzaka, Edison Volquez and Yovani Gallardo all going after Chamberlain, in addition to Carlos Zambrano, Rich Harden and Ricky Nolasco, there are better options in the 8th round with less risk attached to them.

Round 9:

Upside - Brad Hawpe (132) – There is not much upside potential in round 9, but Hawpe being available at the end of the round is a good pick. He offers a solid average in the .290 range with 25 home runs and 100 rbi potential.

Downside – Nelson Cruz (128) – Fantasy players are going a little overboard I think in projecting Cruz’s 2009 numbers based on 115 at bats in 2008. Yes he has power potential, but remember that he is already 28, this is not a rookie we are talking about. Last year was his third season in the major leagues with the Texas Rangers. If you combine his stats over three seasons with Texas, his numbers are 22 home runs, 82 rbi and 6 steals in 552 at bats. Not bad numbers, but there is a reason those numbers are spread out over three years; the Rangers have never given him chance at 500+ at bats in one season. With Marlon Byrd and Andruw Jones in the wings, there is no guarantee he gets those at bats this year either, unless he gets off to a blazing start to the season. There is a lot of risk to picking him in the 8th round with other alternatives still on the draft board.

Round 10:

Upside – Jorge Cantu (143) – It is nice to find a corner infielder with 30 home run power still on the board in round 10. Cantu offers the additional flexibility of qualifying at 1b and 3b. He also turned the magical age of 27 in January if you believe in that phenomenon.

Downside – Xavier Nady (149) Nady had a career year with the Pittsburgh Pirates / New York Yankees last season. With all career years, there is always a very good chance for regression the following season. The Yankees also have a few extra hitters floating around in their outfield so Nady might lose 100-150 at bats even as a starter, depdning how much playing time the combination of Melky Cabrera / Brett Gardner / Nick Swisher receive.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Upside / Downside Rounds 1-5

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 11th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Today we are going to look at the one person with the most upside and downside per round based on a 15 team fantasy baseball draft with average draft positions provided by Mock Draft Central.

Round 1:

Upside - Ryan Braun (7) – Has a great chance of hitting over 40 home run this season, with 100+ runs and rbi’s. Add in 15-20 steals and the potential for a .300 average and Braun represents the best upside in the first round, based on his draft slot and the chance to exceed his 2008 numbers.

Downside - Ian Kinsler (9) – I like Kinsler, but not at number nine. He has never surpassed 518 at bats in the last three years and with the possibility to grab Pedroia / Phillips/ Roberts in the 2nd round or even Alexei Ramirez in the third round, Kinsler is going to leave some owners crushed if they are picking him this high.

Round 2:

Upside - Alfonso Soriano (24) – it was just two years ago he was 40-40 and that was for the lowly Washington Nationals. Prorate his numbers over a whole season last year and Soriano would have been at 44 home runs and 28 stolen bases. If you are slotted in the in the 7-9 spots of your draft order, count your lucky stars if Soriano falls to you in the second round.

Downside – Dustin Pedroia (23) There is some regression coming this year, there is little chance Pedroia duplicates his stats from last season. Take away 10 steals from Pedroia and a couple of home runs and you are looking at Kelly Johnson plus 30 points in batting average. Not a second round pick in my eyes with the other players available on the board.

Round 3:

Upside - Matt Kemp (38) The explosion is coming, it might be a year away, but soon we will be seeing regular seasons of 25 home runs and 35+ steals from Mr. Kemp. To get those steals in the middle of the third round, plus close to a .300 average is a bargain.

Downside - Kevin Youkilis (37) Not sure that I believe he is a 30 home run hitter after hitting only 16 in 2007. Even if I knew for certain he was going to hit 30, I would rather wait until round 4 or 5 and grab Chris Davis or Joey Votto.  There is better value available in the third round.

Round 4:

Upside - Alexei Ramirez (48) – his numbers are not that far off from the three second baseman that are going ahead of him in the draft, discounting Chase Utley. Ramirez will have the added bonus after three weeks into the regular season of being eligible at SS for those leagues with a 20 game rule.

Downside - Joe Mauer (53) – Mauer is coming off of kidney surgery in January and recently has been bothered by a sore back. There are four very good options at catcher available after Mauer, who could potentially start the season the disabled list.  I would take the following; Soto (67), Victor Martinez (78), Doumit (120) and Ianetta (133), all ahead of Mauer.

Round 5:

Upside - Chris Davis (65) – Has a chance to be this year’s Ryan Howard with a higher batting average. A nice upside pick with the chance to hit 35-40 home runs and bat over .290.

Downside - Magglio Ordonez (64) – Ordonez had a solid year last year, and is always around the .300 mark but with zero speed and with only 20-25 home run, spending a fifth round pick on him is not  a good investment. There are lots of outfielders you can select later on in the draft that will put up the same or better numbers than Ordonez will in 2008.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball links for keeper leagues

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 10th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Sticking with the theme of keeper leagues, I want to share some of my favorite free links for finding information on minor league players. Some of these may already be familiar to you, but hopefully some will provide you with new sources of information as you prepare for your fantasy baseball draft.

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?page=mlbdk2k9topprospectspt1 – If you are looking for rookies for this season as well as the future, Jason Grey of EPSN has his top 100 list available. I have played against Jason in several NFBC leagues in Las Vegas and he is a tough competitor in auction leagues. He has some really good insight into players along with recommendations from time to time. If Jason is speaking on fantasy baseball, I am always listening.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=3840355 – Also of ESPN, Keith Law has his top 100 prospect list up as well. The top 25 are free to read, the next 75 require an ESPN insider subscription.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/ – great place for finding career minor league statistics. Pitcher stats include hr/9, k/9 and bb/9 ratios.

www.minorleagueball – site by John Sickels, has a good selection of current prospects as well as prospect retro section which will hopefully give you some insight into current major league players and how their minor league performance transferred to the big leagues. Also has prospects per team which tend to draw quite a few comments so if you like discussing the minor leaguers of your favorite team, this is a good site for you.

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/ – if you play in an AL or NL only league, this is a must reading site to give you a look at player contracts. It is helpful to review contracts that are expiring after the current season so you can determine people that may be potentially traded depending on the team they play for. Because you lose players in the off-season that are traded in most leagues, this site will help you avoid that potential problem from year to year.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/ – a lot of the information in Baseball America is subscription content, but there is a free Ask BA section where staff members answer questions that can provide some insight into players as well as a weekly Hot Sheet once the minor league season starts.

www.minorleaguebaseball.com – the official site of minor league baseball.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball – Winning a keeper league

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 8th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Do you care if you win your fantasy baseball keeper league? It seems like a simple question but the answer seems to be a little more complex for some people who play fantasy baseball.

Let’s assume a few parameters and you will see what I mean. The assumptions are as follows: it is a keeper league (the number of keepers does not matter), the league will redraft every 5 years and there is an entry fee to play of over $100.

Now you might say, a $100 or more does not matter to me as an entry fee, I am paying that money for the joy of playing fantasy baseball for six months and that is a cheaper form of entertainment than anything else I could do for that same time period. To which I say, that is probably true, however, if that is your mindset, you are better off playing fantasy leagues at Yahoo or some other free service where there is no entry fee involved then.

Most owners, will buy a magazine or several magazines, sign up for newsletters / projections / draft software, etc. so in addition to the entry fee you are paying, tack on another $50-$100 in draft materials / seasonal information. On top of that, factor in the time that you will spend playing fantasy baseball. Wading through all of the information over the internet, watching Baseball Tonight or watching games on ESPN, add on another 10 hours per week of your time spent on fantasy baseball. Taking that 10 hours per week times an average of $20 per hour (or insert whatever $ amount you think your time is worth) times 30 weeks of the fantasy baseball season equals $6,000. I know, I know, this is not actual money coming out of your pocket, but my point is regardless of the entry fee, there is a cost (investment) associated with playing fantasy baseball, and like any investment in stocks, or certificates of deposit or even a savings account, you should want to see a return on that investment, either in the form of a check or trophy or both.

So with that out of the way, let’s examine the difference between a keeper league and a one year or annual league. Mmmm, there really is no difference. The categories are the same, the rules are the same, the only thing that changes between the two in most cases is the mindset of the owner. Okay, stop, go back and re-read that last sentence again, because it is important to think about.  The one thing I have noticed most in the years I have been playing fantasy baseball keeper leagues when determining the difference between the people who win leagues and the ones who don’t is the mindset of the owner.

For example, we just had a trade deadline in one of my basketball leagues recently. I offered another owner who is bunched together with five other owners in a tight race three players for LeBron James. These were three solid players who would have most likely given him the title and the cash prize. His response when he rejected the offer was, I can’t do the trade, it gives me too many keepers for next season. Wow! I can’t say that I was shocked, because I have heard a similar type answer in different sports, in different fantasy leagues  every year I play, but it still baffles me that when an owner has a great chance to win the league, they pass on it, in order to protect their keepers for the following season.

There are no guarantees for next year in a keeper league. Improvements of players, declines in performances, injuries, and changes in players roles all make it hard to assume that because your team is in the top three one year it will be in the top three the following year.   My advice is when the opportunity presents itself, go for the win every time.

If you have only played keeper leagues in the past, it is a good idea to try a one year league to get yourself in a different mindset when it comes to trading and waiver pickups. This will help you strike a good balance then in your keeper league for still keeping young talent, while at the same time playing to win your league.

Bill Simmons of EPSN had a great line in one of his recent articles regarding the Portland Trailblazers, saying “Portland seems content to be just a Promising Young Team With a Huge Internet Following for the next 12 years.” Don’t let this happen to your fantasy baseball team. It might be nice, to have the best collection of young talent, but if you have no league titles attached to your name, it doesn’t really matter, especially since your team will be broken up in a few years anyway for the redraft.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball ADP – Rising / Falling

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 3rd, 2009

Finally the month of March has come. That means fantasy baseball drafts are right around the corner. Now that spring training is officially underway, lets take a look at some the player’s whose average draft position are rising and falling the last two weeks, courtesy of Mock Draft Central.

Rising:

Brett Gardner – Gardner has been on the rise with talk out of New York that he has a chance to possibly be the Yankees opening day center fielder and lead off hitter. Gardner has the potential to steal 40 bases with a full-time job and his current ADP of 374 puts him the 24-26 round range depending if you have 14 or 15 teams in your league. He is also a good target for AL-only leagues where steals are at a premium.

Dana Eveland – no real news on Eveland so far in spring. People could be picking up on his first half numbers of 3.49 e.r.a and 1.4 whip ratio with 74 strikeouts as his true numbers before he bombed in the second half and was sent to Triple-A in August for a short time. ADP has increased 120 spots in the last two weeks.

Daniel Murphy – his ADP jump of 99 spots has to be driven by New York Mets fans. He might be part of a platoon with Fernando Tatis in the outfield. His minor league numbers suggest the potential for a decent .280-.300 batting average with 10-15 home runs and 60-70 rbi’s.

Miguel Batista – currently the leader in a three arm race with Mark Lowe and Roy Corcoran to be the Seattle Mariner’s closer. His numbers in relief last season were not any better than when he was a starter. APD has risen 90 spots, putting him in the 25th round range. If he  enter the season as the closer, he might be good for 10-15 saves before he loses the job.

Aaron Heilman – Heilman is currently battling for the 5th starter spot with the Chicago Cubs. With multiple bullpen options already with Carlos Marmol, Kevin Gregg, Chad Gaudin and possibly Jeff Samardzija, it makes sense to see if Heilman can bolster the rotation. ADP has jumped 76 spots in the last two weeks.

Falling:

Ben Sheets - was close to signing a contract with the Texas Rangers last month before they discovered he had a torn flexor tendon in his elbow. The surgery is expected to sideline him until after the All-Star break. Not worth drafting unless you play in a dynasty / ultimate league. ADP has fallen 139 spots.

Braden Looper - recently signed by the Milwaukee Brewers, Looper will miss the next 1-2 weeks with an oblique strain and could start the season on the disabled list. ADP has dropped 62 spots the last two weeks.

Jeremy Bonderman - recently underwent an MRI on his right shoulder, his availability for the start of the season in the Detroit Tigers rotation is still in question. ADP has declined 22 spots.

Josh Fields - Fields, the potential starting third basemen for the Chicago White Sox will have to battle Wilson Betemit and recently signed Cuban defector Dayan Viciedo for the position. Fields has lost some of his luster as a prospect from a few years ago as he is now 26 and put up disappointing numbers in Triple-A last season. His ADP has slid 21 spots.

Mike Fontenot – Fontenot appeared slated to be the starting second basemen for the Chicago Cubs until the Cubs signed Aaron Miles to a two year contract. They could end up in a platoon role with Fontenot getting the majority of at bats as the left-handed hitter. Fontenot’s ADP has fallen 26 spots the last two weeks.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Impact Rookies

Posted by Todd Lammi on March 1st, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Every year there are a few rookies that make a significant impact in fantasy baseball. Determining whether a rookie will be boom or bust depends on his opportunity plus a managers patience if the player struggles out of the gate. Let’s take a look at some of the top rookies to make an impact in 2009.

They have a job:

1) David Price - Price enters the year as the number 5 starter for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. In that slot in the rotation, there is a good chance he will be skipped on some starts due to days off or rainouts to keep the top four pitchers on schedule, plus it limits the amount of innings he will throw for the season. Look for 150+ strikeouts and 12 wins from him.

2) Cameron Maybin - Maybin is expected to start in center field for the Florida Marlins and is currently projected to hit leadoff. Negatives in 2009 are his batting average and lack of power, positives are his speed and if he gets on his base, he will score a bunch of runs. I expect something along the lines of a .240 batting average with 85 runs 9 home runs and 27 steals.

3) Travis Snider - Snider is expected to open the season as the Toronto Blue Jays starting left fielder. He worked his way from Double A to the majors last season so expect some growing pains this year as he justed turned 21 last month. Look for something along the lines of .260 with 15 home runs and 75 rbi’s.

4) Elvis Andrus - Andrus is currently penciled in as the opening day shortstop for the Texas Rangers. His has more value for the Rangers than he does in fantasy outside of his stolen base potential, which might get him 20 steals out of the 9th spot in the batting order. Expect little in the power department as his career high in the minor leagues is four home runs.

They will have a job soon:

1) Matt Wieters - unless he has a monster spring, it looks like he is ticketed to start the year in Triple-A since the Baltimore Orioles signed Greg Zaun. I would not be surprised to see Wieters in the majors by the end of May, similar to the path Evan Longoria took last season.

2) Trevor Cahill / Brett Anderson – both pitchers might start the season in Triple-A  for the Oakland A’s and will be first in line for a call up. Cahill does a good job of keeping the ball down in the strike zone, as he has allowed only 8 home runs in 220+ minor league innings. Anderson, a lefty, has averaged more than a strikeout per inning in the minors.

3) Colby Rasmus – Many people expected to see Rasmus patrolling the St. Louis Cardinals outfield last year, but a slow start in Triple-A coupled with multiple injuries kept him out of the big leagues. With a tremendous spring he could break camp as one of the Cardinals starting outfielders if Skip Schumaker makes the successful transition to second base. That would leave Rasmus to battle Chris Duncan for the third outfield spot.

4) Gaby Sanchez - Sanchez is in the running to be the Florida Marlins starting first baseman if he can perform up to the task in spring training.  Sanchez had eight at bats in the majors last season, but still has not spent any time in Triple-A. The Marlins have other options in Sanchez is not ready, by moving Jorge Cantu to first base and going with one of a number of candidates at third base, either Dallas McPherson, Wes Helms or Emilio Bonifacio.

5) Andrew McCutchen - McCutchen will begin the season in Triple-A for the Pittsburgh Pirates and await either an injury or trade to make his major league debut. He already has had 569 at bats in AAA so there is little to gain to make him repeat an entire season at the age of 22. One area for improvement is his stolen base percentage. Last season he was caught stealing 18 times in 52 attempts.

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