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Archive for February, 2009

2009 Fantasy Baseball – The first round

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 28th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

What do you expect from your first round draft pick in fantasy baseball? It is a question which could get you 10 different answers from 10 different people, but for me I have three different answers on that subject. If I am drafting in the top half of the first round, I am hoping that my pick maintains his value, that is put up numbers close to his previous years performance. Any improvement from that player is then gravy, additional stats that you were not counting on. If I am picking at the second half of the first round, I am trying to identify that player that will perform like a top 5 pick, thus giving me additional value in terms of stats relative to draft position.

With that in mind, here are my top 15 picks for 2009 in fantasy baseball in order.

1) Hanley Ramirez – The top pick by far, it is scary to think he just turned 25 in December. With Ramirez slated to hit third for the Florida Marlins this season, there is a very good chance his numbers are even better than last year in power while his stolen bases remain flat. Check out his walk rate last season, has he took 40 more walks in 50 less at bats. I am projecting .300 avg 33 home runs 95 rbis which I think might be too conservative, with an upside of 40-40 with 120 rbi’s.

2) Jose Reyes - the New York Mets are experimenting with Reyes hitting third so far in spring training behind Luis Castillo and Carlos Beltran. This makes Reyes an interesting choice in determining his draft slot between 2-5. I have him ranked second for several reasons, his amount of stolen bases alone account for almost 40% of your teams total in order to reach your goal of being in the top three in that category. If you don’t take Reyes here, there is a huge drop-off in shortstop after Jimmy Rollins who will be long gone by your pick in round two and I will always take a middle infielder over a corner hitter or outfielder when the values are close. Secondly, the chance of Reyes hitting third for the entire season give him upside of .300 avg 20 home runs, 85-90 rbi’s with 55-60 steals.

3) Alex Rodriguez - Assuming he does get suspended at any point during the season, I think A-Rod is the number two choice in the first round. I see numbers similar to the 2006 with an improved New York Yankees lineup in 2009.

4) David Wright - In 2007, Wright’s numbers were almost identical to A-Rod’s. Wright is in the lineup every day so he gets a few extra stats with his 600+ at bats. His 34 stolen bases in 2007 don’t look like they will be repeated. Wright attempted only 8 steals in 91 games once Jerry Manuel took over as manager last season.

5) Jimmy Rollins – Where did the power go? Rollins went from 30 home runs in 2007 to only 11 home runs last season. I think the ankle sprain he suffered in the early part of the season affected his power throughout the course of the year. I like Rollins here over Albert Pujols because of the position factor and the stolen bases. As mentioned in my earlier articles, I want 100+ steals after three rounds and Rollins gets me almost half of that number.

Okay, now it gets a little more tricky after the first five picks. The one unique thing if you are playing in the NFBC, is that you can choose you draft position somewhat, but listing your preferences for picks in order. You are still at the mercy of the random draw for name selection, but you can control somewhat where you pick. For me, ranking draft slots 1-15, I would have pick number 6 last. I don’t want it. After the first five picks, Pujols would be the pick by most people here, if not earlier. Outside of a little more average, there is a good chance that Miguel Cabrera and Mark Teixeira will have similar numbers. If I am picking 6th, I expect to have a stat advantage over the person picking 10-15 and with Pujols compared to the other 1b, I don’t see a huge difference, so my number six pick is:

6) Grady Sizemore - I have not that excited with his average but he is still young and hit .290 in 2006 so there is a little upside there. His 30-30 home run / steal combo plus 90+ rbi’s and runs scored make him an ideal #6 pick in my eyes.

7) Albert Pujols – as solid as they come, would be nice for him to hit double digits in steals one of these years like he did in 2005 but I guess that is nitpicking. He has not hit under .327 since 2002.

8.) Miguel Cabrera – Cabrera had a solid first year in ther American league, but if you look inside his numbers, it could be even better in 2009. In the last three months of 2008, Cabrera hit 26 home runs with 79 rbi’s in only 79 games. He also qualifies at 3b in leagues where the position eligibility requirement is 10 games.

9) Ryan Braun – Had a superb sophomore season, hitting 37 home runs with 14 stolen bases. He has some room to grow his batting average this year and has a good shot at surpassing 4o home runs.

10) Chase Utley - If I knew for a fact that he would be 100% healthy the entire season, I would have no problem taking him ahead of Pujols at #7. Utley’s numbers are in the David Wright range, without the stolen base upside that Wright or A-Rod offers.

11) Ryan Howard – The potential to add 50 home runs at this point in the first round is too hard to pass up. Howard was hitting under .230 for most of the season until he heated up in September. Not a good sign that his walk rate decreased in 81 more at bats last year.

12) Evan Longoria – If you want him, you are probably going to have to take him here if he is not already gone, because he will not make it back to your pick in the second round. If you extrapolate his numbers out for the full season at 600 at bats, he would have hit 36 home runs and drvien in 114 runs.

13) Carlos Beltran – His home runs have declined for two consecutive seasons while his stolen bases have been on the rise. He is a legit 30-30 threat and has driven in 100+ runs the past three years.

14) Alfonso Soriano – Soriano was limited by a broken hand in 2008 as well as a calf strain which cut down his stolen base numbers. He has talked this spring of 30 steals this year, but lots of guys talk of running in the spring. I would still pencil him in for only 20 steals and take anything over that as gravy.

15) Mark Teixeira – Teixeira has put up three straight seasons of pretty consistent numbers outside of a slight increase in batting average. Hitting in the New York Yankees lineup should help his numbers in 2009. Still has the upside of 40 home runs.

2009 Fantasy Baseball Injury Updates – Pitchers

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 25th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Following up on my previous post, let’s examine the pitchers that are returning from injury in 2008 that will have an impact on this year’s fantasy baseball season.

Yovani Gallardo: Gallardo came back at the tail end of 2008 after undergoing surgery on both of his knees. His 24 innings pitched means he might be limited to 175 innings this season in attempts to prevent injury. Helping his cause is that he declined to pitch for Mexico in the World Baseball Classic which might have further limited his innings for the Milwaukee Brewers. Gallardo currently has an ADP of 118, ranking him ahead of Rich Harden, Ricky Nolasco and Carlos Zambrano. If you want to draft him, don’t count on him sliding.

Erik Bedard: Bedard underwent shoulder surgery in September last year. He has had two mound sessions since February 15th and has reported no problems so far. It is interesting to note that before the injury, his k/9 ratio was at 8.0, which was in line with his 2006 season of 7.9. That is number you should be hoping for if you draft him and he is healthy. His 2007 ratio of 10.9 k/9 seems like an outlier. Bedard currently has an ADP of 188 which puts him in the company of Scott Baker, Ted Lilly and Clayton Kershaw.

John Maine: Maine underwent surgery last September on his right shoulder. He started an intrasquad game yesterday, pitching two innings, allowing one hit with two strikeouts and zero earned runs. In an effort to reduce his pitch counts this season, New York Mets pitch coach Dan Warthen is asking Maine to starting using his curveball again. Maine currently has ADP of 241 which puts him in the neighborhood of Gil Meche, Jered Weaver and Wandy Rodriguez.

Chien-Ming Wang: Wang tore the tendon in his right foot last June and missed the remainder of the season. Wang had his mound session back on February 3rd and looks to be in good health as he prepares for the start of the season. His current ADP is 222 which puts him slight ahead of John Maine. With Wang you know are going to get a decent amount of wins and few strikeouts. He managed to bump his k/9 ratio to 5.1 before his injury, but over 200 innings, that only comes out to 113 strikeouts.

Justin Duchscherer: Coming off of hip surgery for a second year in a row, Duchscherer should be fine to start the season. Last year his career high 141 innings were the most since he threw 96 innings in 2004. He has the stuff to post decent numbers, the problem is there is no guarantee he makes it through the entire season, much less the all-star break.

Jeremy Bonderman: Bonderman was sidelined last June with a blood clot in his arm. He has thrown four times already since arriving in camp and has experienced no problems so far. After having not thrown for eight months, there is a chance Bonderman will be left behind for extended spring training to build up his arm strength. In 2007, the breakout year that many expcted for Bonderman never materialized as he compiled a 5.01 e.r.a. He had a very good k/9 ratio at 7.5 so if he starts the season in the Detroit Tigers rotation, he is someone worth taking a flyer on, particulary in AL only leagues.

Fausto Carmona: Carmona missed two months last season with a strained hip, only to return late in the year and get pounded on. Before his injury, Carmona sported a 3.10 e.ra. with a 1.59 whip ratio, thanks to an ugly 38-23 walk to strikeout ratio. The Indians had Carmona working to correct a flaw in his delivery while pitching in the Dominican Winter League so the expectation is that he will turn that ratio around in 2009.

2009 Fantasy Baseball Injury Updates – Hitters

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 25th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

One of the strategies I employ when it comes to fantasy baseball drafts is to look for players coming off of an injury in the middle to late rounds. The reason is twofold; the value of the player has been somewhat depressed in terms of draft position compared to the value of potential return in stats for a full season of health and two, there is a foundation for statistical success that is present compared to taking a flier on a rookie with an unknown performance history that may or may not have still have a starting job once the month of April is over. With that in mind, let’s review some of the key names coming back from injury in 2009.

Travis Hafner: Had shoulder surgery on October 14, 2008. I am a little concerned that it took that long last season for the surgery to occur and it did not happen in season, which means he could start out spring training a little behind schedule. His 42 home runs in 2006 look like an outlier so even if he was 100% his home run range seems to be in the 22-27 range with possible upside to 30. His average draft position is currently running 239 at Mock Draft Central which puts him in the 17th round in a 14 team mixed league draft.

Victor Martinez: Martinez had elbow surgery in June of last season to remove bone chips. He showed a little power upon his return, hitting two home runs in 59 at bats in September after going homer less in his first 207 plate appearances of the season. The one concern with drafting Martinez is the potential for him to lose 75-100 at bats this season to Kelly Shoppach at catcher.

Todd Helton: Helton who had been bother by back issues since 2002 finally underwent back surgery on September 30th of last year. He is still currently rehabbing his back with the hopes of being ready for opening day. Now at age 35, he can still provide some average help, but his power potential is most likely 20 home runs maximum and he has not driven in 100 runs since 2003.

Chase Utley: Utley underwent hip surgery at the of November last season and the original prognosis was that he would miss 4 to 6 months. Utley , who is pushing to be ready by Opening Day has felt no pain so far this year. Considering that he played in pain last season and still posted numbers of .292 avg 33 home runs 104 rbi’s and 14 steals. Assuming he has no setbacks in spring training, he could be a great value pick for someone picking at the end of the first round / early second round if he slides in your draft.

Troy Tulowitzki: It was a tough season last year for Tulowitzki, suffering a torn quadriceps tendon at the end of April and mssing time in June after cutting his hand when he slammed a bat in frustration. He managed to bounce back when he returned, hitting .292 with 5 home runs and 25 rbi’s in his last 52 games of the year with a 21 to 25 walk to strikeout ratio. Current ADP has Tulowitzki grouped together with Jhonny Peralta of Cleveland and J.J. Hardy of the Milwaukee Brewers. I like Tulowitzki a little more than both of those two with the batting average upside he can provide.

Ryan Zimmerman: Here is what I wrote about Zimmerman in one of my previous posts, “Ryan Zimmerman of the Washington Nationals looks to be going a little high in drafts with an ADP of 99. Coming off of wrist surgery in 2007 he suffered a torn labrum in 2008 and his power suffered as a result. His walk rate decreased and his stolen base totals went from 11 two years ago to only 1 last season. He can still have a productive season but I think there are better, safer choices that will be available in a one year league draft.” The recent signing of Adam Dunn might give Zimmerman a little more protection in the lineup, watch to see his power numbers in spring to see if his strength has returned all the way.

Mike Lowell: Lowell underwent hip surgery at the end of October and is working towards being ready for opening day. The Boston Red Sox have an alternate in place with Kevin Youkilis having the ability to switch over from first base so there is no need to rush Lowell’s recovery. It will be interesting to see if he comes back with a chip on his shoulder after the Red Sox missed out on signing Mark Teixeira which would have led to Lowell being traded. His current ADP slots him behind Melvin Mora, Casey Blake, Ty Wigginton, and Mark Reynolds.

Eric Byrnes: Byrnes was limited to only 206 at bats last season after tearing his left hamstring. Arizona manager Bob Melvin said in December his current lineup plans have Eric Byrnes on the bench. Byrnes has been mentioned several times in trade rumors in the off season. Expect those rumors to heat up in spring training if he can show his hamstrings are okay and he can steal bases. Currently the plan is for Byrnes to sit out the first few spring training games as a precaution.

2009 Fantasy Baseball Closers

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 23rd, 2009

by Todd Lammi

By now you know my feelings on starting pitchers as explained in my previous post and on the subject of fantasy baseball closers I feel even more strongly. While the case for a hitter vs. a pitcher in the early rounds of a draft is a 5 category vs a 4 category issue, closers are only bringing 3 categories to the party with little impact in wins and strikeouts. For closers, unless you are playing in a league or event where there is an overall standings, closers should be the least priority for your team on draft day for several reasons.

1) Closer is the most volatile position in major league baseball. There are always 8-10 new save candidates that pop up throughout the year to grab 15-30 saves that were undrafted or drafted late in fantasy baseball drafts. In fantasy football where it is important to draft a “handcuff” to a starting tailback, the same strategy can apply in fantasy baseball. You could get by with drafting one closer in the middle rounds, draft 2-3 “handcuffs” late in the draft and work the free agent wire during the year and still finish in the middle to top third of the category in saves. Take a moment to examine the failures at the closer position last season.

Failed	Succeeded	Type
Chad Cordero	Jon Rauch	Handcuff
Eric Gagne	Solomon Torres	Waiver
Jason Isringhausen	Ryan Franklin	Waiver
Takashi Saito	Jonathan Broxton	Handcuff
Huston Street	Brad Ziegler	Waiver
J.J Putz	Brandon Morrow	Waiver
Joe Borowski	Jensen Lewis	Waiver
Todd Jones	Fernando Rodney	Handcuff

That is not an all inclusive list but it gives you an idea of the ability to find saves without taking a closer high in your draft.

2) It is easier to trade for closers during the season. Closers are the one position where fantasy baseball owners seem to have the biggest disagreement in terms of value. If you check with several owners once the year starts on obtaining a closer in trade, you will get a variety of responses and offers.

3) You can win your league by punting saves. A lot of people don’t agree with punting a category and I don’t neccesarily either, however it is however easier to win a league by punting saves than any other category. Saves is only one category in the standings and the points you lose in that category you can make up for by gaining points in wins and strikeouts. The key is to find pitchers with respectable earned run averages and whip ratios that you will roster in place of the closers so it does not hurt you in those two categories.

2009 Fantasy Baseball Pitchers

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 21st, 2009

by Todd Lammi

There are some fantasy owners that every year try to make the case for drafting a starting pitcher in the early rounds. Some owners are even willing to take a guy like Johan Santana in the first round and yes, owners have won leagues before with that strategy.

But at the end of the season, more often than not, those teams that take starting pitchers high in the draft end up in the middle of the standings, and the teams that focus on offense early assuming they draft a respectable staff will end up at the top.

If you review the rosters of fantasy baseball mixed league winners from last season, you will most likely find the names of Ryan Dempster, Cliff Lee, Ervin Santana, Gil Meche, Edison Volquez or John Danks on it. These were players that were most likely selected in the last few rounds of every draft or even in the reserve round drafts that helped guide owners to championships.

For me, early in the draft I am always looking to draft a hitter for several reasons:

1) Starting pitchers are four category players. The hitters you are trying to draft in the first few rounds are hopefully five category players. According to my math, five beats four every day of the week.

2) The injury factor. Pitchers get hurt more often hitters. Spending a second or third round pick on a pitcher only to see him get hurt during the season is painful, unless you have drafted great pitching depth in the later rounds or you know how to work the waiver wire extremely well. Jake Peavy missed 5-7 starts last season and Jon Lackey missed 9 starts last season due to injuries. Assuming each of those were taken in the second or third in most drafts, the injuries knocked their actual stat performance value in Peavy’s case to about the 6th or 7th round and Lackey’s to about the 13th-14th round.

3) As noted earlier, there are usually people that you can find late in the draft that will perform like a mid to early round draft pick, like some of the names above. In addition, pitchers will be called up from the minors during the season or will get a chance to start due to another pitcher’s injury that provides them with an opportunity.

So what I am I looking for when I am selecting pitchers in the mid to late rounds of the draft? For me, my number one category is strikeouts per nine innings, with preferably a number above seven. The easiest way for a pitcher to determine the outcome of the at bat is to be able to make the batter swing and miss and strike him out. Once the batter is able to hit the ball and put it in play, there are several factors then working against the pitcher; the quality of the defense behind him as well as luck.

After k/9 ratio, I am looking at strikeout / walk ratio (k/bb) and home run/9 ratio.Let’s examine the numbers of some of the pitchers that broke out last season.

Ervin Satana - in 2007, his numbers were brutal with a 5.76 earned run average and a 1.55 whip ratio, but he had also managed to increase his strikeout ratio from 6.2 strikeouts per nine to 7.6 per nine innings. Throughout his first few years, he had brutal home and road splits when he pitched. His home run ratio stood at 1.6, which was higher than the league average that trends around 1.0. In fantasy baseball, there is always some regression to the mean. If the home run ratio for starting pitchers in the league is 1.0, except for extreme fly ball pitchers, most pitchers will be right around that number. One year they might be at .8, the next year 1.2, the next year 1.4, the next year .9, but it usually comes back to what the average is. In 2006, Santana had a ratio of .9, in 2007, it was 1.6 and last year it was back down to .9

Edison Volquez – the sample size for him was a little smaller, having only thrown a combined 67 innings in the majors between 2006 and 2007. In 2007 in six starts, he managed a 7.7 k/9 ratio. Moving to the National League with the addition of facing the pitcher and not a designated hitter, usually will bump a strikeout ratio .7-1.0 per nine innings. Volquez was able to increase his k/9 ratio to 9.5!

Ryan Dempster – He managed to carry over his 7.5 k/9 ratio as a reliever to a starter for the entire season, bumping the number to 8.2 with a paltry .6 home run rate. Part of his success in addition to his K ratio could be attributed to his funky windup that kept hitters off balance as well as an improvement in his control.

John Danks – His strikeout ratio stayed pretty much in line with his rookie season of 2007 at just over seven per nine innings. His two big areas of improvement came in control and home run ratio. He improved his k/bb ratio from 2.0 to 2.8 and dropped his hr/9 ratio from 1.8 to .7. Part of his success was attributed to the addition of a cut fastball which the White Sox have done a good job of teaching to their staff. See Estaban Loiza (2003) as proof, when he went 21-9 with 207 strikeouts and finished second in the A.L Cy Young Award voting.

By focusing on some key pitching metrics, like k/9 ratio, k/bb ratio and hr/9 ratio, you should be able to get ahead of your competition and pick up some great late round pitchers. This will allow you to focus on offense early in the draft and stay away from some of the risks associated with drafting a pitcher too high in your fantasy baseball draft.

2009 Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 21st, 2009

by Todd Lammi

With now less than a month from when your fantasy draft will most likely take place, it is time to examine draft day strategy for rotisserie leagues. For this article, I am going to assume a 14 or 15 team league with 5 x 5 categories that we are playing in.

In the first three rounds, I am looking for 5 category hitters. Each of my top three guys need to be able to steal bases and provide stats in the other categories as well. I know that from past draft experience, stolen bases tend to dry up pretty fast after the first few rounds, and I don’t want to be stuck taking a one dimensional player like a Juan Pierre or Michael Bourn or someone that is only going to steal 40 bases and contribute little in the other categories. Especially where an injured hamstring or a change in managers can cause the 40-50 steals you might have been expecting from that player to be cut in half. If you can accumulate 75-100 steals with your first three picks, you are well on your way to hitting the top three category goal of 150 to 160 stolen bases for your team.

While some people scoff at position scarcity, I am a firm believer in it. My goal is to build my team from the inside out, starting with the middle infield, then 3b, Catcher, then 1B and OF. The reason for this is I am looking to have an advantage at positions where the middle to bottom tier players are average to weak in stats and the player group is small.

For example, in the first round, I am looking for a SS, one of the top 3, then 3b, either A Rod or David Wright and then 2B if Utley is healthy or Ian Kinsler. The reason is if I pick 4th and take David Wright, it is much easier for me to find an outfielder later in the draft compared to another owner that takes an outfielder like Josh Hamilton or Carlos Beltran and has to find a third baseman late in the draft. The player pool for outfielders and first baseman is so much larger than the other positions that it is best to focus on those later in the draft when possible. Taking a player like Wright at a position where not many players steal bases, gives you another advantage against your competition because if you need steals later in the draft, it will be much easier to find them from an outfielder compared to another owner trying to find them at third base.

If I had the first pick in the draft, here is my first four round projection of selections. I would be looking to take Hanley Ramirez 1st overall, with back to back picks in round 2 and 3, some combination of Dustin Pedrioa / Brian Roberts / Brandon Phillips and Russ Martin (again, looking for steals and good stats at a weak position). In round 4 and 5 with back to back picks I would be looking at Rafael Furcal, Geovany Soto (for leagues where two catchers are required), or possibly Corey Hart.

My next few rounds I would focus on pitchers and then come rounds 10-13, focus on outfield and first base when there would still be plenty of talent available.

So in addition to doing fantasy baseball mock drafts and checking out average draft positions, it helps to plot out your draft for what positions you might want for each of the rounds. By doing this, you will be surprised how many guys you are able to select when the real draft comes that you want, instead of watching guys get taken two or three picks before your turn that you were hoping slid to you or missing out on a hitter or pitcher run at a particular position.

2009 Fantasy Baseball Outfielder’s ADP

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 18th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Continuing on the same theme from my previous post, we are now going to look at the fantasy baseball ADP for outfielders and utility players / designated hitters.

Fantasy baseball outfielders: Nelson Cruz of the Texas Rangers seems to be going pretty high in drafts this year, currently listed with an ADP of 133. He turns 29 in June and is currently penciled in as the starting outfielder, but with Marlon Byrd and the recently signed Andruw Jones around, Cruz cannot afford to get off to a slow start or he will lose at bats. He had only 115 at bats in the majors last year but in that small sample size he seems to have a much better grasp of the strike zone than during his previous tours. There will be quite a few more solid, dependable players available at this stage of the draft for Cruz to warrant a selection this high.

Delmon Young with an ADP of 219 seems to be too high as well. Twins manager Ron Gardenhire has publicly said Delmon Young is currently on the outside looking in for a spot in his starting outfield. Whether the Twins are trying to trade Young or simply light a fire under him, it does not sound well for his playing time at least initially this season. Young has displayed a decent average and a few steals, but little power and an inability to walk to get on base. Again, I think there are better options than Young at this point of the draft.

Nick Swisher at 199 must be getting drafted by a lot of New York Yankee fans in the mock drafts to be this high. He was originally slotted in at first base after being traded for in November but then the Yankees went out and signed Mark Teixeira. Manager Joe Girardi said Swisher will have a chance to compete with Xavier Nady for the right field job, but barring a trade, expect Nady to be in the outfield opening day and Swisher riding the bench.

With the outfield player pool being so much larger than the other positions, there are a lot of great options late in the rounds that could provide some of the same type of stats as those players going in the middle rounds of the draft.

Matt Joyce, now with the Tampa Bay Rays is a late round source of power with an ADP of 344. He might be part of a platoon, but as a left-handed hitter, he owns the majority of the at bats. Could be good 20-25 home runs and a .260 average in 400-450 at bats. Currently projected to hit 7th in the Rays lineup.

Jody Gerut, slated to start in center field for the San Diego Padres currently is being selected around 370th overall . He had been out of the major leagues since 2005 before last season. His numbers in 2008 were not that far off from his stats in 2004, the last time he had a full-time job, except for a few more home runs and a few less walks. With San Diego on a tight budget, expect Gerut to get the start and put up numbers in the range of .275 avg 15 hr 65 rbis and 12 steals.

Chris Duncan of the St. Louis Cardinals, trying to return from an injury marred 2008 is currently running an ADP of 442. He had back surgery last season and says he is feeling no effects this year. With Tony LaRussa having Skip Schumaker attempt to make the shift from the outfield to second base, there is a spot open in the outfield for Duncan or rookie Colby Rasmus to grab. With the down year Rasmus had in Triple-A, expect Duncan to get first crack at the job if Shumaker winds up in the infield.

2009 Fantasy Baseball Infielder’s ADP

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 17th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

As a tie in to one of my previous posts regarding mock drafting, I am going to examine some of the current ADP (average draft position) rankings for the 2009 fantasy baseball season.

There are a multitude of sites that have ADP’s listed, but for the purposes of this discussion, I am going to examine the ADP’s at Mock Draft Central. After clicking on the header at the top of the page, the average draft position will have several filters you can pick from to run your report. The key is to filter on the type, as it will give you several options. I usually use the one for the NFBC format. Having participated in NFBC drafts and auction leagues before, I know it is a little higher level of player participating in those leagues so I think the ADP’s might be a little bit more accurate.

Of course there are caveats with the ADP’s because you are not sure if there were actually real owners drafting or if the computer was selecting for any of the picks, but it is another “tool” to use as you prepare for your upcoming fantasy baseball draft.

After selecting the NFBC scoring system, which is a standard 5 x 5 league, the only difference being there are 15 teams and the leagues are no trades, you can also filter by position which is located right next to the player grid.

At the top of the report, it tells you there have been 39 qualifying drafts between 2/3/09 and 2/17/2009 so there is a good sample size to work with. When you are looking at the grid, it tells you the ADP, the earliest the player was picked, the latest the player was picked and what % of the drafts the player was taken in. For converting the ADP into a draft round, it is simply a matter of dividing the ADP number by the number of teams in your league. For example, Victor Martinez has an ADP of 78.56 or rounded to 79. For a 12 team league, that means he is being drafted on average in the middle of the 6th round. In a 15-team league, that is roughly the first few picks of the 5th round, etc.

So let’s get started and examine each of the infield positions.

Fantasy baseball catchers: Matt Wieters, Baltimore’s rookie catcher is currently listed as the 7th highest drafted catcher which is way too high for a one year league. On 2/13, Orioles exec Andy MacPhail spoke of Wieters starting the season in AAA. With Greg Zaun in camp, there is no reason to fast track Wieters who has not played a game in Triple-A yet. With lots of quality catchers available, there is no reason to take a risk on Wieters unless you are playing in a keeper league. Yes, I know, rookies are the sexy pick and it is nice to brag to your friends that you discovered the next hot thing, but Wieters should not be the first catcher that is drafted to your roster in a one year league. If you are looking at a late round play in leagues that require two catchers, John Baker of the Florida Marlins is a good selection. He should see 400 at bats this season and has been a slid .277 hitter in the minors throughout his career. Although he is little old at 28, a lot of catchers don’t develop as hitters until later in their career. He led the Pac-10 in batting average as a junior in 2002 and was part of the famous draft of the Oakland A’s in 2002 that was wrriten about by Michael Lewis in his book Moneyball.

Fantasy baseball first basemen: Just a few years ago Derek Lee of the Chicago Cubs was top three round pick. This year ADP has him being drafted behind the likes of Chris Davis, Carlos Pena, and Joey Votto. Lee has always been a player that seems to be drafted higher because of his name and potential for high production but in his entire career he has only driven in over 100 runs one time! His wrist injury in 2006 seems to have sapped him of some of his power and days of his double digit steals are well behind him. Paul Konerko was plagued by injuries in 2008 but is looking like a good value pick with an ADP of 171. Add in an extra 100-125 at bats for last year missed due to injury and his stats come out to 28 home runs and 74 runs batted in. The average was still low in the Jim Thome range, but if you can grab that type of power in the middle of your draft and he boosts the average up into the .270 range, that is great value.

Fantasy baseball second basemen: It looks like Howie Kendrick has a lot of people still on his bandwagon without the performance to back it up with an ADP of 134, ahead of Mark DeRosa, Kelly Johnson and Rickie Weeks, etc. Kendrick has been unable to stay healthy for an entire season, logging around 350 at bats the past two seasons. While the average is nice to have he has shown little power with a few stolen bases thrown in. You can get that same type of production from a Placido Polanco five rounds later. Again, the sexy young pick of Kendrick versus the grizzled veteran Polanco seems easy. It is much better to tell a friend, “I got Kendrick” with some excitement in your voice, rather than, “yeah, I got Polanco” muttered under your breath. But in reality, their numbers are pretty close and that is assuming Kendrick ever hits the 500 at bat mark one of these seasons.

Fantasy baseball shortstops: Derek Jeter has finally fallen from the top three rounds of fantasy baseball drafts, with his ADP projecting him around 100 overall. I am going to give you stats for two players and you decide which player you want:

Player A: .300 avg. 88 runs 11 home runs 69 rbis 11 steals

Player B: 281 avg. 93 runs 8 home runs 57 rbis 19 steals

Player A is Derek Jeter, player B is Orlando Cabrera. Their stats last year were not that much different, but Jeter for this year has an ADP of 100 and Cabrera around 164. Part of that could be tempered by Cabrera still being a free agent, but the point remains, don’t draft a player just for their name, make sure their stats support the round at which you are drafting them.

For value, I like Edgar Renteria currently listed at 236. He returns to the National League where he hits roughly 20 points higher and it looks like he will be hitting second for the San Francisco Giants this season which will give him a boost in runs scored. With Bruce Bochy willing to steal bases a little more often to manufacture runs, Renteria could even swipe 15 bags this season.

Fantasy baseball third basemen: Ryan Zimmerman of the Washington Nationals looks to be going a little high in drafts with an ADP of 99. Coming off of wrist surgery in 2007 he suffered a torn labrum in 2008 and his power suffered as a result. His walk rate decreased and his stolen base totals went from 11 two years ago to only 1 last season. He can still have a productive season but I think there are better, safer choices that will be available in a one year league draft. Lots of injury plays at 3b in the later rounds; Scott Rolen, the always injured Eric Chavez and Troy Glaus, though none of which I would risk a pick on unless it was in the reserve rounds. In the later rounds, I would be targeting either Casey Blake or Kevin Kouzmanoff. Either guy will get you 20+ home runs, close to 80 rbi’s and will be available in the later part of your draft.

2009 Fantasy Baseball Drafting for Stats

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 14th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

Once your fantasy baseball draft or fantasy baseball auction starts, in addition to managing your roster, you need to be able to manage and track your stats. Tracking your team stats is something that is easy to do during your fantasy baseball draft and it takes little time to do so.

Before the draft, you should have a target goal of a minimum of no lower than third place in every category. If you have played in fantasy baseball leagues in previous years, you will have an idea of what type of stats you will need depending on if your fantasy baseball league is 10 team, 12 teams, 14 teams, etc.

This is a great idea because the stats for each of the categories don’t vary that much at the top from year to year. It is important as you go through the draft to give yourself a realistic check to see where you stack up in each category. That way in the middle of the draft if you are deciding between a base-stealing outfielder or a power hitting outfielder, a quick check of where your team is stats wise will help guide you in the right direction. It becomes even more critical to track if you are drafting in a league where there are no trades allowed and it is a lot harder to make up ground if you come out of the draft lacking in one or two categories.

If you are drafting online, have your projections open in an Microsoft Excel sheet, click on the sheet after your pick, and copy and paste over your player to a tab where you are tracking your team. Usually I set my sheet up with the positions down the left, a sum total row at the bottom, my goal row underneath the total row and then a calculation row underneath that, which subtracts my current stats from my goal. Doing this will also help you when it comes down to your last five or six hitters to draft when you see how many more stats you need and what stats are still available in the draft pool to determine if you need to take a hitter with your next pick, or you can wait a round or two and grab a couple of pitchers.

If you a drafting at an event, say the NFBC and you do not have a laptop, you can track your stats by writing them onto a sheet of paper and doing the calculations with a calculator. Again, it is an easy process and something that is important to do if you want to start seeing an improvement in your fantasy baseball drafting skills.

2009 Fantasy Baseball Mock Drafts

Posted by Todd Lammi on February 11th, 2009

by Todd Lammi

If someone handed you the fantasy baseball stats for the 2009 season right now, would you win your league, assuming it was a one year draft from scratch league? What if every team in the draft had the exact same stats as you did before the draft, how confident would you be that your team would still win the league?

There are so many web sites, magazines and talking heads out there that the information for fantasy baseball nowadays is almost as much “noise” as it is “news”. After awhile, all of the information tends to get lumped together. You have to assume that whatever projections for stats you have, the rest of the guys in the league have pretty similar projections also, minus a counting stat or two. The key then becomes knowing when you can obtain each stat.

A great way to do this is to have a mock draft; in fact several mock drafts. You can go to a site like Mock Draft Central and join for a free a mock draft, review expert drafts that have already taken place or check out the results from previous drafts in their ADP (Average Draft Position) section.

Once you know the draft position of where you will be drafting, doing a mock draft gives you a great idea of what players will be available when it is your turn to pick. With so many of the online drafts now using a timer for each draft pick, it is critical to have a good idea of who you like once your choice is up so you don’t end up making an unwise hasty selection before the timer goes off, or even worse, the timer expires and the computer auto-drafts for you.

After you complete the mock draft, total up your team stats and compare them to the previous years standings to see where your team ranks in each of the categories. You should have a target goal of third place or better for each of the categories in order to finish in the top third of your league. By reviewing the stats, it will shed some light on categories you might be lacking in based on your draft position so you can adjust your strategy going into the real draft.

Remember though, that the real draft will in reality most likely differ quite a bit from the mock draft. Depending on who you do the mock draft with, people are less likely to pick their “sleeper” picks, instead letting them slide to see where another owner takes them to try and assess how other owners value a particular player they like.

I have heard many an owner after a draft exclaim something like, “wow, I cant believe so-and-so went in the 13th round, he went in the 19th round or later in all of the mock drafts that I did”. Be prepared to adjust throughout the draft as players you were hoping slide to to you don’t. There is no such thing as “sleeper” anymore in fantasy baseball. If you do your due diligence before the draft, you will be prepared come draft day.

The draft is not won in the first half of the draft; all of the teams look pretty similar on paper at that point. It is the last half of the draft where championship teams are built (in addition to the waiver wire and trades if your league has them). Understanding where the depth may be at a certain position late in the draft or where the second closer run will start midway through the draft is knowledge that can only be gained through doing a mock draft.

So give yourself a step up on your competition and start fantasy baseball mock drafting today. It will give you great insight into your drafting style and fantasy baseball draft strategy and puts you one step closer to bringing home your leagues fantasy baseball championship in 2009.