There are numerous things to look at when projecting player performance in fantasy baseball, but one of the things I think that gets overlooked is the place in the batting order.
One of the key take aways from spring training is seeing where players are going to fall in each team’s line up. Moving up or down in the line up from the previous season is going to have a direct impact on a players stats.
Take for instance Erick Aybar of the Los Angeles Angels. With the loss of Chone Figgins, Aybar now has the chance to hit lead off for the entire season. What is the direct impact to him from a stat perspective?
If we look at Figgins numbers from last year, he had 716 plate appearances which includes walks and hits. Averaging that out per 158 games gives him 4.53 plate appearances per game. (I realize this number could be off by .1 or so for games he pinch hit or was a defensive replacement, left a game injured, etc.) but at a top level, 4.53 is the number.
Aybar had 534 plate appearances in 137 games which was good for 3.90 per game. So if we slot Aybar into a lead off spot for the entire season and he gets roughly the same number of plate appearances as Figgins did last year, he would see an additional .63 plate appearances per game. Factoring that out over 150 games as a baseline gives Aybar an extra 95 plate appearances for this season; or in simpler terms almost an extra month worth of stats.
The same type of numbers apply for Jason Bartlett who looks destined to hit number one for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2010. Hitting first last season, Bartlett averaged 4.39 plate appearances. At the other spots in the lineup, he averaged only 3.64 plate appearances. Factoring that out over 150 games as a baseline and it gives him an additional 113 plate appearances over the course of the year.
Again, it is just another one of the many downsides when using magazines for statistical projections because the data is old and not fluid. If you want the most up to date projections and information, check out the The FBT Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide. It is available for purchase for just $9.99. You can view a sample here to see the template for the top 10 catchers and top 10 starting pitchers.
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